Member Info for Pelle

Welcome, I found it at other forum advfn something:-)

Hello E,
Magnus, I get Enq cash flow about the same H2 vs H1 combined the 75% deal and 25%.
2020 slightly less for Enq.
Before we talked about opex of 30 usd and now its 20 usd.

Capex, yes I love it if they keep it around 150 next year.
Must make sense keep it as low as possible a period and go harder on debt.
And also get some cash on hand for another Magnus type of deal.

Your the balance sheet expert:-)
How did it go with these trade creditor loan Hitman talks about before?

Can you explain how debt could drop approx 42 million/month in May/June?
First 4 months we did 25/month.
Did they kick some cost over to H2?

My spreadsheet was perfect up to April numbers but now seems pessimistic.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/t/enquest-ceo-our-debt-cost-is-still-high/vp-AAGQZhc

BananaJoe,
How you get 60 usd breakeven last 6 months?
They reduced debt 136 mill + 50 mill negative capital movement.

Capex this year is higher with I think 125 mill because they faced over invoices from 2018 into 2019.
Or make some rough estimates for next year
Magnus/Malaysia 50-60 mill
North Sea other 50 mill
Kraken? Maybe 50-60 mill. Not sure.
Something between 100-200 mill total I would feel safe to say.

Interest cost and leasing cost is also going down

GKB, yeah we looking forward to some super computer work

GKB, yeah but if tanker makes a left or right turn it’s bit difficult guess how that will effect oil price.
There other events also in world, Trump and shale.
Its just too much at least for me to guess how all will play out.
So far most things didn’t play out as we guess during last years.

I would put my effort in looking into Enq 2020/21 how it could play out.
Cost structure going down for example.

Someone asked about reserves and decommissioning today.
It’s also interesting

If your senior here we would appreciate your help:-)

Neil,
I get next year opex 20 usd and assume 25mill barrels at 70k
Capex 150 and leasing and interest 200 mill. That’s another 14 usd per barrel.
So break even FCF going bellow 40.
Only 100 mill amortisation next year 1 April that they already working on now with a rate of 30mill /month .

They will survive with 40 but not healthy of course. But how likely is that scenario?

GKB Fine, but I will put penalties on you for Iran tanker reports then.
And I might increase tariffs in future

Twalbyoff, debt reduction was stronger then I expected May June.
With 60 oil debt EBITDA ration should be in 1-1,5 range in H2 next year and it would be nice with 1p Q3 and Q4.
Or they wait until 2021

Hopefully they could announce their ideas well ahead based on some assumptions. That’s what Lundin Petroleum did a few years before they started dividend

Just read Swedish news paper DI the equivalent of Financial Times.
Not a single note about Enq I found.
We are simply forgotten

Maybe Enq is worth 2b if compare with other sales. But what is those other companies opex?
60 usd opex as Magnus in 2015 and Enq now lower it to 20 usd.
Its a huge win win for BP or others to do a deal similar with Enq.
To me this looks like a perfect place to be for Enq.
Within 5 years we might be above 100k production

GKB, I get 83,57 p net value tomorrow with 1 mill less debt tomorrow as of today. That’s reason why AB will continue his hobby buying more shares soon.

GKB, I am thinking same.
EBITDA and how well it translate into FCF is different for each company.

So some FCF valuation would be better

Bananajoe, please remove post so AB don’t get any ideas

Thanks Plethorus

So 3 multiple today is about 60p
And 4 multiple end 2020 is about 120p

I will be happy with that:-)

Someone posted this graph on swedish forum, what a ride its been.
But do we really deserv to be close to bottom now?

http://www.bilddump.se/bilder/20190904210443-213.67.45.151.jpg

Strange we can't climb more on such good update and beat every person or analyst expectations.
And specially on 2 days oil price increases

Lol Romaron:-)
Your right, I need take the car to London and collect them in cash at AGM.
Look forward to attend next year and meet you guys in person too

Lol E:-)
If I remember correct EBITDA H2 2018 was around 450.
So we around 1b back and future

But what is the fair multiple?

I get around 120 p with that 4,5 multiple.
Remember plethorous talked about different multiples for different size of company. And we would maybe qualify for 3.

Think we should try figure out a fair multiple