Member Info for Pelle

Michael, you only use 6 months EBITDA?

I also intend to go to AGM next year.
Hope for more the cake and coffee:-)
Anyway, watching Lyckolandet now on SVT play. Nice one for oil guys here

Nice summary L3
But you forget to mention dividend FC:-)

Hello HMH,
It would be fantastic news if they managed it train by train.
If I remember correct they shut down completely last year but then they had more problems to fix.
Let’s see what they say tomorrow

Hello E,
Yeah Brexit I stopped listen or try understand all the turns.
Lets hope Donny playes his China trade card in next months and then stay more silent during run up for election.
And hope he doesnt find Iran or euro trade deals cards to play to send oil down again.

Some weeks ago everything in news papers talking about recesion, re-build your share portpolio and prepare for crisis.
Its a relief that oil didnt go lower and now looks strong today.

Good luck tomorrow :-)

Thanks Mavrick :-)

Hi MO

You think they can do the maintenance one train by train so they never stop completely?

Checked Chilting posts, seems last one finished 28/29th somewhere

Great news MO,

anyone know why oil go up?

Hi L3,
You forget mention my name?
Good work and well written, my view is same as yours now regarding H1 and future H2.

No less then 30p in my opinion

Lets hope this Christmas will be better then last year:-)

KO, I mean sum of 400 mill during 2021-2023.
Thats very low in my opinion

Mrd, next year we looking at pe 1 based on current SP if oil stays in 60.
Foolish sell out at 22 p in my opinion.
Give it 2-4 years and get full value.
Within 3-4 years they probably given out dividends of 20p

Its difficult predict how SP will react, but this is first 6 month we will present a decent FCF and reduce debt.
There was debt reduction H2 2018 also but a lot come from, RI, BP money for decomission, Bumi and that Enq moved cost from 2018 into 2019 in my opinion.

Also Kraken is performing better and I guess that they will do even some more fixes now in Sept maintenance.
Its also first 6 month its starting come money to Enq for Magnus.

Some analysts predicted early in year that Enq would not make financial commitments meet in end of the year.
But as far as I see the amortisation in 1 Oct is no problem from FCF, and we will have an FCF of additional 100 mill Oct-Dec with current oil prices and decent hedge.
So I see approx 100 mill plus at year end after doing scheduled amortisations so they can even do the 100 mill 1 April 2020 amortisation early.
So next year we talking about a plus of 400-500 mill even with 60 oil and an lower cost structure.
Will be interesting see updated from analysts, its been complete silence 6 months.

A 10% jump in SP is nothing from these levels but you never know.

Report will be good, around 68k and record EBITDA.
Hedges probably into Q1 by now, we saw last update they more trigger happy with hedges and its feels good at moment.
Further I expect very strong production Oct to April and very low capex during H1 2020.

But for this to really start motor we need Trump and China to make trade deal.
I think that will start a massive rally in oil and stock market.
Hopefully they will make it in Sep or Oct.

Thanks Lala

Not sure I can buy it at my SEB ISK, I tried to search just for fun but maybe need apply to open it for these products.
Anyway I am heavy here so it would only be a small spice over report.

feels like a good play over report days from these low levels

Hello Lala,

I seen those Mini L Enquest at avanza.
does it basically work like normal share but 04 have 2 times lever?
and 02 have 4 times lever?

No time factor at these?

Trump bought 7 mill shares of Swedbank.
He is planning for his retirement and understand that next president won’t be able keep oil prices as low as him.

Lol Romaron, yeah it’s too much Enq in brain and also look forward to Thursday.
My simple view is that next year breakeven for FCF will be closer to 40 usd based on lower capex,interest,leasing cost.

So with 60 oil we will clear RCF next year.
And i fail to see the big problem to re-finance bond on the following years.
Lundin got 5b at I think 2% rate, not that we Lundin but maybe we could get 1b at 3%. At 60 oil we should develop in positive way.

50 oil, we will survive and do amortisations but I doubt we get any lift in SP.

If my view is confirmed and oil prices still ok in autumn I will add more shares.