Member Info for Pelle

crowd...

or for the younger drowd here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1y6smkh6c-0

Lol MO, I cant remember I heard that one before but have swedish version

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETxmCCsMoD0

Lol Jan and MO Can watch this one in these difficult times https://youtu.be/PjP9r-HU4fk

Lol Jan and MO:-) Jan, i found it but as I don’t pay to read FT I can’t open it. Can you try, just left click first word, drag down so you mark all text. Release finger Use ctrl C, then go back into here and put text with ctrl V It might work otherwise MO or I need visit you for the computer course

Hi Jan

Is it possible just paste in the text?

Hi MO and All

Yes, I also read about long term gas import pipeline.
And for the fuel consumption a read 1,8k so its somewhere around those numbers that was mention before.

Hi Londoner

I am trying keep things simple, I am not accountant and it seems your now already beyond my skills
where I can comment.
But I am comfortable about my FCF projection as its inline with others here.

Its nice you digging into it and looking forward to see the result.

Thats it!
sorry guys I am taking a day off and go to forest and see if my trees still grow despite all this Trump mess.
Maybe need swift more focus into other things while waiting for dividend here.

Hi E, yes its what I also read.
There must come an end to this at some point, just question when?

Hi KO

Are there any changes with Iran sanctions?

Hi Romaron, Your right, i feel there many good genuine persons at this chat.

Hi Londoner

Please check p14-16 here.
Basically I build my excel file like following. ( Maybe E will accountant objectives on it:-))

Revenue: 25,5 million barrels x 68 usd x (0,94 factor for Malaysia) = 1626 million
EBITDA = 1626-600 opex = 1000

To get the FCF
I have following post
Capex: 275
Leasing cost / interest: 220
BP vendor loan / share profit : 100
This year only: I deducted approx 150 million for working capital / payables on balance sheet.
Dont understand this part 100% but I had 50 million first 4 months + 100 million spread over all 12 months
You can see a note at last update about the 50 million under Liquidity and net debt

All these posts sums up in approx 750 million

FCF points for debt reduction points to 1000-750= 250 million

Next year 2020 I still estimate EBITDA 1000 million
Capex: 150
Leasing cost / interest: 200
BP vendor loan / share profit : 150

FCF = 500 million

https://www.enquest.com/fileadmin/content/press_release_pdfs/2019/2018_Full_Year_Results_docs/2018_Full_Year_Results_and_2019_Outlook_-_Final.pdf

Lol.. Romaron:-)

Yes, I eat,sleep and dream Enq numbers.
All are in my head and dont need the excel sheet much more honestly.
Even though I dont have E's professional background in accounting I now trimmed my calculations so they were almost spot on first 4 months when I adjusted for the confirmed production.

Future does look really good here!

Hi Londoner

Cost of sales = 600 million opex
Cost of finance = 100 million leasing + around 120 million interest for debt

Hi Tom

I follow two more swedish oilers
Tethys, smaller debt free company with stable production % in Oman. 10% dividend. Valuation come down a lot last half year.
Lundin petroleum, More expensive but will start the giant field in November this year.

Maybe Tethys is one of the " under the radar"

Hi NseaOG

Well a lot more value:-) I would not sell for 54p today and doubt AB would.
A valuation today between 40-60 p seems more right.
But give it 3-4 years and we generated approx 1,5-2,5 billion FCF

Then we must talk about shareprices well north of 100p

NseaOG

Thats sounds about right!
Should Enq 3 billion tax free position also be considered somehow?

Hi Scottish Londoner,

Last time I was in scotland I was only couple of years old and all I heard was my parents was bit scared going up in the mountain lift with me in the knee and they didnt know there was a bar to pull down in front of them:-)
Luckely I survived and scotland is a place i would like visit one day for fishing or hunting one day in future.
I live in south of sweden by the way, so sorry if english not perfect always.

Coming back to Enq, yes is was highly geared.
Last year breakeven for FCF about 60 usd this year about 50 and next year about 40.
So we getting safer and safer by the day but underperforme vs oil price development.

At current pace 70k prod and 70 ish oil price I get that we could be debt free in approx 3,5 years even including a capex of 100-150 million usd.
Thats a 1700 million FCF over this time compared to marketcap of 450 million today.
I just wunder at what point the scale will tip over and markets consider this a safe bet.
Given AB additional buying of shares his scale tiped over about 6 months ago after securing the remaing 75% of Magnus.
AB gives me the big confidence invest heavy here and during last 4 years or so it feels safer then ever.

Hi Londoner

Your welcome

Now can you help me understand why share is sub 20p and not more like 40-60p?
Whats going on in London? everyone too busy thinking about Brexit?