Member Info for Pelle

Hi L3,

I am always missing a bit of vision in your posts.
How much debt reduction do see you 2019/2020?

If we say 70k/70 oil and capex next year 150 million.

Venezuela, we have no idea what will happen longterm there 5-10 years.
But all their fields and infrastructure are in so bad shape that it probably need to be completely changed and that will take years and years if some foreign money wants to invest.
It will continue downward spiral for now.

Hi Jan

Yes, its not a time to hedge a lot yet.
Maybe keep 50% volume and 3-6 months horizon hedged.
I think oil will continue up in same trend as it had since January and summer we will see 80-90 usd.

Hi GKB, Its a long time ago Sweden was so big that we had border with Russia. If I read right this pipeline goes first to Belarus and then Poland and other south Europe countries. I read somewhere that first volumes after incident now started to arrive to Belarus. Let’s hope we can get another disturbance in supply somewhere in world, that might start the spike

Hi GKB

We have zero oil production in Sweden, so dont blame us:-)
I am very suprised oil still at this level, but it will spike one day in next months

Hi Chilting, How much can GK maximum hold? And the next tanker US? I think either they want to collect a bigger load then standard 550k. Or they aborted due to some technical reason or weather. I would assume production at AK is intact and it was close to full a few days ago.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/03/opec-is-likely-to-collapse-warns-irans-oil-minister.html

Thanks Dol

Anyone can open and post article text here?

Love_you, if you look into capex spend and production development for the old fields I think you get the answer

Did share spike 0,12p after my post?

For these numbers I used 2019 70k/70 Oil Debt reduction 300 million 2020 75k/70 Oil Debt reduction 650 million with capex 150 million 2021 70k/70 Oil FCF 600 million with capex 150 million I doubt they will spend as much as 150 million yearly on capex 2020/21 In my view it makes more sense limit it to 50-100 million

Hi Hitman and KO, I see debt reduced to 1 billion end 2020. So that’s on lowest side they want to operate 1-2 EBITDA ratio. 2021 I see then an FCF around 700 million if include 150 million capex. They said they want to spend the 700 million on Capex Acquisition Share holder returns As Hitman says, that’s a lot firepower around 700 million. Question is how they distribute money between the 3 things and when they start? To make another Magnus deal now makes sense with no money upfront and pay 200 million in 2 years time. They could also give let’s say 1p dividend each quarter next year. That would give good insentive to hold shares and only cost 80-90 million

Ja, its sad see this. Let’s hope May update can turn this around Good prod Jan-April 70k+ Increased guidance 68-73k full year More hedging done Then it’s more and more difficult for the worst case scenario analyst keep there low targets.

Afternoon E, Hedging is tricky question, as it depends on what situation comes up. At the moment it feels like oil prices are in middle with potential to spike. So would stay in normal hedging for now. The other two question are very good. Specially 3 as you say 2 will be covered. Maybe ask something about capex, how much they intend to put on existing portfolio next 2 years?

Hi E, Have you thought about any question you want to ask at AGM?

Good morning therapists What did you have total Jan? Enq already said 67,7 Jan/Feb So maybe underestimate Malaysia?

Lol KO Guess your right. I would be very happy if you could take some notes of interesting topics and present here. Next year I might attend, but I need buy some shares with direct holding. Now holding is placed in special setup with less tax.

Hi KO, Its very good question. Can you try add something about dividend? Like what financial targets needs to be meet before talking about dividend.

Might be ready next Friday. I read few days ago Trump stand down on some point. Let’s hope they get it done now https://www.di.se/nyheter/uppgifter-handelsavtalet-kan-vara-klart-nasta-fredag/

Hi Itsa,

For once I think your on to something right here.
But US production share in more like 10% only.
I also think prices can spike to above 100 usd this year and maybe already in summer.
Once it start it goes fast, we saw that last October went it went down.

Today 3 ships around Magnus, few weeks ago it was about 5 ships.
I think below work is ongoing now + adding one new Magnus well
Will be interesting for H2

• Sanctioned the Dunlin bypass export
project which, once completed, will see
volumes from Thistle and the Dons
exported via the Magnus facility and
Ninian Pipeline System to the Sullom
Voe Terminal
• Sanctioned a replacement pipeline
at Scolty/Crathes to mitigate existing
wax-related restrictions on production.
Following installation, production
levels from the development are
expected to improve significantly