Member Info for Pelle

Hi Tom

think this is same

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY3Uz4ELwM0

Hi Tom

Yeah, but on paper he only have a small flat and old car:-)
Have you seen documentary? think its called Putins way

Sounds even worse here, in swedish but Can translate https://www.di.se/nyheter/ryssland-levererar-smutsig-olja-till-europa/

Hi Romaron

He is bit difficult understand for me.
He say if enq was valued correctly back then it would be worth a lot more.
I think we had a marketcap slightly above 1 billion usd back then.
Its 6 years ago and now half marketcap after also injected around 200 million.

Anyway, we will get our money back and alot more once start pay dividend.
Valuation will also come one day, each day getting closer with 70k x 70 usd.

Its mention in last report:
“Longer term, our capital allocation will balance investment to develop our asset base, returns to shareholders and the
acquisition of suitable growth opportunities.”

Also mention in report:
“We are committed to further reducing our debt, and expect our net debt to EBITDA ratio to trend towards 2x this year
and intend to operate within our 1-2x target in the future.

Somewhere in 2020/21 money will be allocated like above because they will clearly be in the Debt/EBITDA ratio they will operate within.
If we talk about a EBITDA of 1000 million and deduct 300 million for finance cost and BP.
Its 700 million left, if these money spend equaly on capex, acquisition and dividend we are looking at yearly dividend around 225 million. Its basically 50% of current marketcap.
And close to 500 million for capex and aquisition is a lot of money, maybe too much.

Future looks good to me, a investment now at 20p and you might get all the 20p back in dividend within 3-4 years

Hi Tom

Lets hope your right US production will flatten in H2, but I thought new pipelines would enable more production also.
I will be happy just if US yearly increase productions gets smaller then global oil consumption growth.

I have a possitive view of oil prices next years, think market will get tighter and tigher.
Less global spare capacity.
Just need keep fingers crossed for no global finance problems

Hi Beerbull

From what I understood, majors like the shale due to low investment cost and short cycle to put on stream new flow.
For big fields it needs hige investment and during last years its not been easy predict where oil prices will be in 5-20 years ahead. And new found big fields found thats really lucrative get fewer and fewer.

I am looking forward to the day once shale reached the roof, and US production will be flatten or in decline.
Then I would assume we easy see 100 usd

Hello E,

Lol, yeah I can surely also live with that if they focus on share price:-)
I also read somewhere it was some profit taking in oil today.
Think we will continue up over next months.

Hi Romaron

I was not worried about the lower voting awarding shares.
Just something I spotted, so someone thought it was bit too much. Maybe it was Swedes:-)
Anyway, as you say lets hope they do well with company and make a furtune for us all.
But if share is still 20-30p after 2-3 years and they get a lot shares....I am dissapointed

Hi E,

You always talk about 2020, yes probably the start of the huge FCF.
But shares or markets tend to react like 1 year or more before such an event.
Maybe its bit different in this case as we depend so strongly on the oil prices.
But at some point summer/autumn this year if things they as they are I think we will see this effect in shareprice.
2019 should be the last "tight" year. And basically they can already hedge and close 2019 ok or good finacial wise

Hi E,

Yes, I got its options. Do they print new shares once they "vest" them?
I thought they might hold equal amount of shares to protect a big cost in future.

I know US/UK bit diffrent in this and ofcourse I like the idea if they performe well.
There was a big news in Sweden about ABB some 20 years ago, CEO and other guy got shares worth 150 million usd something because share increased like 10 times. And all people on street had opion about it.
Pressure got to big from news and they decided to give back half of it.
Anyway, I think only shareholders can have an opinion

lol Squif, you should go to AGM and make your voice heard.
Call for a vote of new CEO

Hi E

Is the EnQuest Employee Benefit Trust 70 miilion shares used for this PSP?

In my opinion its bit too much options/shares in these awards.
Maybe ist bit different in UK compared to Sweden
I remember I saw also if it was last year AGM voting it only got through with 80-90% vote while all other decisions get 98%

Haha, doesnt work

market watch

marke****ch

link

https://www.marke****ch.com/story/heres-a-surefire-sign-crude-oil-supplies-are-running-tight-as-users-scramble-for-barrels-2019-04-26

Yeah, maybe he called them but I doubt they answered the phone.

More shares for directors today, hope they well motivated now.

I managed to find this info about PSP, if I remember correct I have seen before more detail information about the KPI targets they need to hit. Maybe someone knows?

Performance Share Plan ('PSP')

Under the PSP, the shares vest subject to performance conditions. The PSP share awards granted during the year had four sets of performance conditions associated with them: 30% of the award relates to Total Shareholder Return ('TSR') against a number of comparator group oil and gas companies listed on the FTSE 350, AIM Top 100 and Stockholm NASDAQ OMX; 30% relates to reduction in net debt; 30% relates to production growth; and 10% relates to 2P reserve additions over the three-year performance period. Awards will vest on the third anniversary.

Hi Auson

Yeah, thought it was that, usually it blows away in few days

Hi KO, You mean back in early November? Guess it was before Cairn Kraken downgrade. Before kraken production problems in Jan/Feb. Before knowing debt reduction in H2 2018 was doped by moving cost into 2019. Looks like we will now clean up this in H1 and things should start look better. Fingers crossed Kraken continue 40k+ and maybe Magnus can continue increasing too

Good morning Jan, Yeah, its good and balance sheet will be repaired a lot this year. And Enq will be in good shape end of this year. Given we get some normal oil years we must do very well with investment over 2-3 years.