Member Info for Pelle

Hi Romaron

Sorry if I have hard to understand you, are you now saying the reason for not doing enough hedging last autumn was limited cash and it was more important have cash at bank?

Hi Romaron

Yes, P281 in RI about debt covenants 1,5 to 1.
These only apply on the RCF loan that is now down to 680 million after payment in end March.
EBITDA is 800 million something
So we well below 1 at the moment.

This was discussed a lot here when RBC also missunderstood this and downgraded us.
With RBC later had to take back their statement of breaking debt covenants

Hi Romaron Are you talking about the debt covenants 1,5 to 1? Those only count on the RCF loan that is now down to 680 million something. So the ratio is well below 1 at the moment. So there headroom if they want to do a deal. But I hope they really after this year limit capex and run down the debt 2020/21. Right now debt is bit enemy as we depend on good oil prices over next 2-3 years during our peak production years. Maybe they can do a Magnus deal, sign now and pay 100 million in 2 years. I also think we will exceed analyst and Moodys expectations of 65k at 65 oil. Prod Jan-April I get an average slightly above 70k Oil price including hedges should also exceed 65 usd so far this year. Feels good also with with AB additional buys of shares, low risk of dissapointment next update

Maybe next update 23 May, last year it was same day as AGM

Hi Yhyh

I prefer focus on KM, Kraken Magnus.
Do you know something about Malaysia that we dont know?

I see Barclays, on 5 July 2018 they increased target from 34p to 58p.
So they dont get it right so often

Chilting, really the updated today? the last one was on 4 th April for 11p.

They really want to rubb it in

Hello

There seems to be a lot activity around Magnus and Thistle.
Did expect that so soon, will be good for future

Magnus, pipe layer and several other ships

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:373950/zoom:10

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:303938/zoom:10

Thistle
Nao Galaxy
Vestland Artemis

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:373950/zoom:10

The Group has delivered on its 2018
production target despite a lower
performance at Kraken than originally
expected. With the additional interest
in the Magnus asset, EnQuest’s
production portfolio has been further
diversified, with material growth
expected as a result in 2019. However,
the increased interest in Magnus also
increased the Group’s reliance on the
Sullom Voe Terminal. Further, the
Dunlin bypass export project, once
completed, will see volumes from
Thistle and the Dons exported via the
Magnus facility and Ninian Pipeline
System and will therefore further
increase reliance on the Sullom Voe
Terminal.

Hi Hitman

I see on balance sheet there also Trade and other receivable 275 million.
Up 50 million since last year. Guess that also needs to be considered.

What financial information do you expect to get on AGM?

complimentary " etc " yeah if AB could offer accommondation, dinner, and airplane ticket I could join too:-)
Maybe next year AGM if we passed the 60p party by then

Hi Hitman,

Maybe stupid question but.
Are those Trade and other payables not covered in Opex 600 million and capex 275 million?

Hi Dumbly, I thinks it’s the bank debt RCF currently at 680 million 1 April. Once it’s gone I think possible pay dividend

Morning Jan

Its impossible forcast AB's decisions.. but if dividend will be given some priority next year anything between 50-200 million must possible next year.
Guess the RCF loan need to be paid down first or re-financed as I think its stated until that is gone its not possible give dividend.
Straight paydown 680 million from here should be possible by mid next year.
Or if they payback half and re-finance.

It might be good investment hold this and collect and live on the dividend next 5-10 years.
So I would not rush to sell at 60 p if we hit that end this year or next year.
Maybe just sell some and invest in other dividend share to decrease risks

I am also very excited about future here

Good morning Squif,Jan,GKB

Yes, EBITDA in H2 last year 404 million.
With these prod and oil prices today I think 2019 we end up close to 1 billion.

FCF for debt reduction I get in range 350-400 million.

So end year debt close to 1400 million.
They said they wanted to operate at a debt/EBITDA ratio between 1-2 and already end this year we could be at 1,4.
Next year we should see good increase in FCF due to mainly lower capex.

So if things going well like this, I think it would be possible maybe give 100 million dividend next year.
That would be approx 20% of the current market cap.
I think AB wants to get his invested money back over next 5 years by dividend

Yes, roughly

Squif, be careful with putting your trust at her. Her motives are not clear, maybe she want party and scam you on your 1,2 billion shares!

Wow Squif, did you have a word with AB before loading up? Or you just think it’s open goal now?

Hi Auson, Agree Oz deal was probably best option, at least better then asking shareholders. This gets better each day now

Hi Hitman

RBC:-) so its only when analyse Enq they FC oil at 50

Please re-work the Enq analyse and update target price

Chilting, yes your right.
Its was amazing how much bad/false information Enq needs to get.

Hi E,

Wow, again Norway:-)
Yeah its crazy expensive there, hope you get some sunny day in Olso and can visit Aker Brygge.
If Enq spikes you might go for a bottle champange there and some seafood.

Oz hedge is ok, 68 is fine and its just below 10% of enq total flow.
Mercuria deal, is it final month now April? I think that had a upper limit of 64 if I remember correct.

2020 will give a massive FCF if oil stays around 70.
I think production will increase average due to less maintenace stop for adding new wells.
Capex, I think they will reduce as much as possible maybe to 50-150 million.
And yes, slightly lower cost for interest and leasing cost