Member Info for Pelle

Hi E, Ok, i will give it a try myself:-) Can you help me with logic for such calculations? My idea 5 year FCF. Each year di****ed to present value. The sum of all this FCF And minus current debt Is this basically how it’s done?

Hi GKB

43 million in gas basically only from 25% Magnus. Thats great.
Now we 62,5% so maybe can count something like 100 million usd gas this year.

Hi E,

Yeah, those cost are known and will wind down each year.

Do you have the possibility calculate a discunted FCF value for Enq total?
Maybe you already have?

Hi L3,

Regarding hedge, fully agree.
If oil goes to 75-80, hedge with high floor 50-70% and 1 year.
Thats a safe and good bet.

If oil continues up, then continue extend the hedge horizon

I was so sure they would have done that last autumn, but basically they did opposite.
Hedged less with low floor

Hi Dol

Looks impressive:-)
Lets hope January and Enquest arrange a visit there at the 60p party

Hi L3,

Discunted cash flow, if I put it this way.
If you apply same production profile for enquest in total as they assumed in the prospect for Magnus.
Enq total prod 70k and oil at 70 usd

What value you get then?

I guess my rough number needs to be reduced with leasing cost and interest cost also lets say 1 billion
Then I instead end up at 2,3 billion.

Regarding Magnus oil/gas consumption. Have you checked in prospect?

Good morning Chilting

Looks good, intention to hook up soon.
Will it be a 11 day round then?

This is surely impressive!
while analysts makes assumptions of basically a complete failure of Kraken and rest of the portfolio is not enough to close the debt fast enough.

AB have had completely another view that problems can be solved, debt can be reduced fast, 30-35k average was careful Kraken guidance. He been loading up with additional shares and thats the best signal I can go for.

I think we will get a massive re-rate here this spring if oil stays normal 65-75 usd and Kraken at 35-45k

Hi Therapist

If I remember correct I read somewhere in last updates about Magnus.
They use gas for operation , but lately gas production have been good so they been able to export gas also.

Hi L3

Yeah, I was wondering same about the Magnus prod data.
Maybe just a small leak in the pipeline. Nothing to worry about.

Regarding valuation, would it not be more correct make a 5 year cashflow analyse assumption and calculate that to present value?
Like how they put a value on Magnus 500 million for 37,5% Prod.
37,5% x 18k = 6750 k

Thats basically 10% of Enq total production.
So then value should be 5 billion - debt 1,7 billion = 3,3 billion.
I know its rough calculation but value is now basically only 10% of this.

Haha Spindok, I also noticed it but never knew why

Hi Nsea

Right, I will ask and lets see

Hi Memo

Yes, on that bank debt RCF part.
But they also borrowed 175 million to reduce the RCF.
So you need look more in details and follow the total net debt

Dol, I would not care much about if I give 19 or 20 p if your planning to hold it for some years.

Hi GKB,

Yes, it must be one the fastest, maybe top 3. There was some fast early last year also if I remember correct
Dont know if MO still monitor it.

Regarding fixing of Kraken, see P14 in the presentation.
If I understand it correct they fixed 5 things so far and 3 more to be done.
So I guess its not perfect yet

Hi KO

Yes, a new Moodys update whould be nice. Its about half year old now.
Thats the only serious analyse we seen for a long time.

Or some analyse from bank, not Barclays or RBC:-)
Maybe there some other bank enquest could feed with some numbers and estimates for next years.
So market gets a more serious analyse

It must be in Enquest interest to get the valuation up from these low levels

Hi Squif

I think Kraken even higher then 35k at the moment.
Guess they estimate to produce 35k average including maintenance stop rest of the year
Then they get something in middle of 30-35k as guidance full year

Hi L3

Therapist posted this some days ago, January prod.
Kraken improved from March, Maybe use 35k as average rest of the year.
Looking forward to see your numbers on valuation.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/t9xziirktc29tv0/Dec%2018%2C%20Jan%2019.jpg?dl=0

Hi F AHL, Your welcome:-) Can you also feed in some valuation model?

Itza, you so transparent! Now you made 2 p and want to get in again lower. Good luck! I hope share spike soon and we never see you again

Hi L3, Yes, your right in many things. Kraken production profile if I remember correct the 50k was very short lived, so over let’s say 5 years I doubt its big difference if we now at 40-45k. Have to remember also if they assumed 90 usd before they also reduced investment cost by 30% if I remember correct. You seems smart and good with numbers. Have you made any different valuation models you want to share with us? How do you put a value at Enq given things we know today?