Member Info for peka

Poidster, thanks for your posts. It's good to have the views of someone who is close to people using Novacyt's Q16 and Q32 machines in a hospital.

I agree with your comment that "for your own sanity, don't check this BB too often, there's so much rubbish from all sides being spouted and most of it is conjecture and opinion with very few actual relevant facts."

Porky, I agree entirely with your very optimistic assessment of Novacyt's prospects.

People should bear in mind that Novacyt are probably restricted by NDAs in what they were able to say in the trading update. Also they probably don't want to upset the DHSC by revealing too much to the stock market at a time when they are in delicate commercial negotiations about an extension to the Phase 1 contract and possibly a Phase 2.
I think that if one owns shares in Novacyt, one has to accept the fact that its share price has been and is likely to continue being very volatile. I have 20% of my portfolio in it, because I am very optimistic about its prospects over the next year and probably longer. However, I think trying to predict what its share price will do in the short term is a mug's game.

B2HS2 - I didn't forget the possible 700 extra instruments. I just didn't mention them.

The full paragraph (containing the text quoted by Milcait) in today's RNS from Novacyt says:

In addition, the Company continues to support the DHSC and the NHS following the deployment of its rapid PCR testing system, for the contract with the DHSC, announced on 29 September 2020, and the Company is in active discussions with the DHSC to extend this phase of the contract. Novacyt's PROmate™, a new product to improve the workflow efficiency when used with the Company's q16/q32 instruments successfully completed an in-service validation conducted by Test and Trace's Technology Validation Group (TVG), with the TVG concluding the performance of the PROmate™ aligns with the acceptable standard for point-of-care (rapid testing).

I think this is a strong hint that the DHSC is about to extend its contract with Novacyt to supply test kits to the NHS.

Porky wrote:

"The fundamentals of this business are rock solid, it has exponential growth at a level not seen with ANY business In the last 20 years, yes it’s PR is poor and they underplay their abilities but other than that you won’t find a better business on the AIM frankly."

I agree, except I really like the fact that Novacyt is a company that under-promises and over-delivers.

The AFS/BIO message includes the following, which I think is encouraging for the impending trading update from Novacyt:

"Primer Design is a world-class leader in the manufacturing of qPCR assays and, during the pandemic, had distributed millions of COVID19 tests globally to over 230 countries."

There's a lot to be said for Terry Smith's trading strategy in his Fundsmith fund, which is find high quality companies whose shares are not overvalued , buy their shares, and then do nothing (unless forced to do something by a takeover).

Porky, what you are suggesting seems to me to be a bit like the Stockopedia website.

" I think youll find 6 people died in the over 56 age group out of 9000 people".

So what? You would expect that sort of number to die from ordinary natural causes over a period of a few months from such a large group of people in that age bracket. That is not evidence that those deaths were caused by the vaccine.

This is ridiculous. About 21,000 people were given the Pfizer vaccine in the trial a few months ago. Of those 21,000 people, 2 people have died. It is not unusual for 2 people in a randomly selected group of 21,000 to die within a few months for a huge variety of possible reasons. Is there any reason to suppose that the deaths of those 2 people was due to the Pfizer vaccine?

Everyone on this board knows that Novacyt is a very volatile stock. It has been known to go up or down in a single day by up to 40%.

A poster on Stockopedia called Nick Ray wrote an article recently about volatility, in which he made what I think is a very perceptive comment which I applies well to Novacyt's shares:

'So volatility is a measure of how difficult the market finds it to price the stock. It is not a measure of risk but uncertainty or confusion. In that sense it is a kind of "Value" metric. If the market does not know how to value a stock it will have higher volatility.'

If someone bought 17.8 million euros worth of shares today, can anyone explain why the share price fell by 7%?

Thank you, ShaunP and Wilson63! That's very useful information. I will probably ask my son to use Wren Healthcare or Boots for a Covid PCR test.

Does anyone know where one can get a rapid PCR Covid test in London, preferably using Novacyt kit? My son wants to come home for Christmas and my wife is in the vulnerable category, so we would like him to be tested before he comes home and ideally we would want 0% probability of a false negative result!

One has to accept when investing in Novacyt that it is an exceptionally volatile stock, so it is prone to violent swings in share price both up and down. It is very difficult to predict how the share price will behave over the very short term of days and weeks. However, it is my belief, based on my reading of the great research by many posters on this board and on the Novacyt Insider website that over the medium and long term, of months and years, the share price will be significantly higher than it is today. Mass testing of Covid will be needed over the next couple of years at least, regardless of progress on vaccines, and Novacyt is the company in pole position for that in the UK.

I have increased the weighting of Novacyt in my family's ISA and SIPP portfolios today from 20% to 30%. This was based partly on my increased confidence in Novacyt's prospects from reading the many excellent posts on this board in recent weeks. However, is my portfolio too risky now, due to having such a high percentage in a single AIM stock?

I took advantage of the slightly lower share price today to to buy some more Novacyt shares and increase it's weighting in my portfolio from 17% to 20%. I've been convinced by the great research on this board and on the NovacytInsider website that the shares are undervalued in the long term. I have no views on the short-term prospects of its share price, which I expect will be like a random walk for a while.

Hi JDFull3rton,
You've done well with your Novacyt shares so far, but I think having 100% of your investments in one company you don't know much about as an outsider is extremely risky. A wise man once said that diversification is the only free lunch in investing.
One idea is, if and when you've doubled your initial stake, to sell half your shares, which would mean your remaining Novacyt shares would have cost you nothing. You could then reinvest the proceeds of the sold shares elsewhere, preferably in investments whose share prices are not highly correlated with the share price of your remaining Novacyt shares. I think you could do a lot worse than putting that money into a fund such as Lindsell Train Global Equity or Fundsmith, both of which have good long-term performance records and invest in very different stocks to Novacyt.
As to whether you should keep your Novacyt shares for the next ten years, nobody can see that far ahead. You should monitor how they are performing on a regular basis and make decisions based on that. I think there's a good chance it won't be around in ten years time, because it might eventually be taken over by one of the big pharmaceutical companies.

I thought it was an idea that might help some people cope with the volatility, because that's what I've done. But each to their own...