Member Info for Pdub

Patience patience patience.

When you find a great company like BMN and invest at what is still an early phase of the story those are the three things you need. And in my opinion most pi's don't have them.

I do! And it's already made me a lot of money and in my opinion just by holding tight I my BMN shares will continue adding to my wealth.

A comparison of typical investments over past 12 months:

Cash ISA + < 1%
Premium Bonds + 1 or 2% if lucky (unless a big winner!)
House value + 3.1% (Land Registry UK average)
BMN shares up + 184% (9.16p to 26.75p source HL)

Hmmm. Not too shabby!

For those getting impatient it might be worth thinking not 1 hour ahead or even 1 day, week or month ahead. Think 1 year ahead. Maybe write a list of all the events that will unfold over that time, combined with super high vanadium prices and consider whether another 184% rise in sp will look like a conservative estimate!!

To start that list:

Q3 and Q4 2018 updates giving hard facts about increased production from phase 2.
Full year results for 2018 with what should be even greater cash flow from H2.
Q1 and Q2 2019 updates perhaps showing influence of phase 3 upgrades.
H1 2019 interims ... Yum yum!
Progress at Mokopane following Mining Licence granted?
Further developments at Brits, hopefully including Mining Licence?
News from Lemur coal project.
AfriTin production increasing value of BMN holding in ATM.

Please feel free to add to list. I gave deliberately left off one or two significant developments !!!! Want to make you work a bit.

I note that there are clearly some pi's selling. Sigh!

Regards Pdub.

Headancer a full explanation and example from today:

Sells and buys

The London Stock Exchange does not tag trades as buys or sells. It just gives the price.

Some platforms like MoneyAM just list the trades in black and white and it is up to the reader to work out whether a buy or sell. I prefer this as I am forced to use my brain to work out buys and sells. I also do frequent dummy trades to establish actual quotes for buys and sells and confirm my assumptions. This combination works well for me.

Other platforms, including HL and LSE, work out the midpoint between the official bid and ask and software then tags any trade that falls below the midpoint as a sell and colours the trade red (whether in reality a buy or sell).

Similarly any trade above the midpoint is tagged a buy and coloured blue, irrespective of whether it was a buy or a sell.

Any trade falling on the midpoint is coloured black.

WHAT IS MOST IMPORTANT IS THAT THE PUBLISHED COLOUR OF THE TRADE SHOULD NOT BE USED TO DETERMINE WHETHER IT IS A BUY OR A SELL. IT ONLY INDICATES THAT IT FELL ABOVE OR BELOW THE MIDPOINT AT THAT TIME !!!!!

That is why the published sell / buy figures on sites like LSE cannot be used as the data they rely on was not determined by whether the trades were buys or a sells but only where they were positioned below or above the midpoint at the time.

As an example check out the time period today between 12.00 and 14.00 hrs. The official bid / ask was 27.00p / 28.20p and the midpoint therefore 27.60p. All the trades during this time were between 27.077p and 27.5999p. Thus every trade was tagged a sell and coloured red.

However intelligent examination reveals that there were 4 sells ranging from 27.31p to 27.077p and 7 buys ranging from 27.5999p to to 27.5519p (one of which was slightly delayed).

The key point is that LSE will have recorded all 11 trades as sells and all of the shares traded will appear as part of the sold total for the day yet the true picture would be roughly 190,000 sold and 200,000 bought !!!

Hope that helps to understand just how misleading are the day's totals of 1,916,091 sold and 770,486 bought published by LSE (and other platforms).

Hope that helps anyone to understand this crazy system and not to use the numbers!

Regards. Pdub.

I would like to think that all shareholders of BMN share whatever relevant information they may have with bb in a timely fashion. We are after all in this together.

I have read other bb's where there are clearly 'inner circles' and I have never witnessed that serving the wider interests of all shareholders.

I am sure that does not exist here but would like to keep it that way.

Regards. Pdub.

Argh. Typo's

That's a word I used a lot in the early days of the BMN story.

For those that had plenty of it you will now be sitting on very large profits. I think some have forgotten patience. So a reminder of some simple basics:

We have a great CEO and BoD
Fantastic in ground assets
A great strategy to develop integrated vanadium play
Unbelievable market dynamics
Terrific cash flow

Patience patience patience.

Why search for conspiracy or someone to blame? For what? We are doing incredibly well. Ok there is a small retrace. This is AIM and that happens. If anyone here naive enough to think that shares only go up in straight lines you shoukdnt be trading on AIM!

The broker does not control the sp!!!
If there are one or more large sellers (and we now no for sure there has been) that will have a negative impact on the sp.
If the fundamentals are good ... No, sorry, outstanding (and in my opinion they are) then those with patience and common sense are likely to do very very well.

I also not that some pi's here appear to think they have better judgement on SP Angel than our CEO. Really? Good luck with that.

So sit back, relax and enjoy the ride. I am!

All of course just my opinion.

Excellent post Daisan. Great common sense.

Apologies for typo's:
Buy = by
Relate = rerate

Am I the only one that thinks that what appear to be great initial results from Balcombe may represent further proof of concept for the Weald?

The future suddenly looks far better for all the Weald oilies in my opinion.

I would imagine the buying pressure triggered buy today's RNS will help Bergen get out quicker (and that is great!) and if Brockham delivers too then the serious relate may come all the sooner in my opinion.

Bergen may be presenting us with a great buying opportunity.

All just my number opinion

Great news today.

Alan thank you for the 08.19 post. Very informative and helpful.

Regards. Pdub.

Haha Sanchez - that's brilliant "If you were more transparent you would be invisible".

Charlie if you wish to trade then that's up to you, but the majority of contributors to this bb are too wise and experienced to be conned by trader talk.

Regards. Pdub.

Thanks Tyfoon. Appreciated.

Thanks for responses Deanosbooty / Tyfoon. Systems error then.

Regards. Pdub.

I can get quotes from HL. What I cannot see are undelayed previous trades.

I am having trouble accessing trade prices on the two platforms That I use (HL and MoneyAM). Anyone else having same issue either on these platforms or others ? I suspect a feed issue from Stock Exchange.

Endion the problem I have with the notion that the BMN sp target from SP Angel is based upon the long term vanadium price is that SP Angel raised their sp target from 11p to 33.6p over the period 11 November 2017 to 13 August 2018. That is an increase of just over 200% yet they hardly changed their long term price assumption for vanadium over that same period.

Now I am not the brightest of analysts yet even I can see that the long term vanadium price, whilst perhaps playing a part in their valuation, is clearly not the only important factor. They are responding to much more immediate changes. They even cite what those reasons are in each updated forecast. See below:

30 November 2017 "We are upgrading our target price to 14.3p from 11p based on Bushveld’s increased share of the cash flow from Vametco. Bushveld Minerals are to acquire a further 55% of Bushveld Vametco raising its stake to an effective 59.1% of the Vametco vanadium mine and process plant."

23 January 2018 "The FerroVanadium price has more than doubled over the past six months to US$60/kGV and while Bushveld Vametco does not receive these prices till three-months after we see them, due to delayed pricing formulae, they do feed through."

27 April 2018 "we are raising our valuation and target price to 24.9p from 18.28p today on confirmation of stronger vanadium production and on raised expectations for higher average ferro-vanadium prices through 2018 and thereafter"

13 August 2018 "Vametco is seeing extraordinary growth in its cash flow generation from much higher than anticipated ferro-vanadium prices which is further supported by a significantly weaker South African rand."

Clearly there are differing views on the SP Angel targets. I prefer to consider their sp targets to be effective over the short term as I have previously stated and for me that may equate to 3 months plus or minus. That of course may be impacted by significant news such as the Sojitz acquisition.

I repeat that I like achievable targets and so far through 2018 SP Angel have certainly delivered those.

One final point. I trust Fortune Mojapelo's judgement. He chose SP Angel as a broker and if he remains with them I have to assume that he is satisfied with their performance. That's good enough for me.

Regards. Pdub.

Endion I agree with most of the sensible comments about SP Angel's long term vanadium price targets.

However my post is purely focussed on SP Angel's and ARC's sp targets. I used the 2018 statistics to demonstrate that SP Angel's sp targets have been achieved within 3/4 months and therefore I consider that to be the relevant time frame. I do not consider their view of the 12 / 24 month vanadium price to be relevant to their short term sp target. I could of course be wrong but that is my opinion.

I am a fan of achievable targets!

Food for thought on broker targets for BMN sp in 2018 !

SP Angel

Target raised from 11.00 p to 14.3p (+ 30%) on 30 November 2017, and achieved as closing price at the end of March 2018, some 4 months later.

Target raised from 14.00p to 18.28p (+ 30.6%) on 23 Jan 2018, and achieved as closing price in mid April 2018, nearly 3 months later.

Target raised to 24.94p (+ 36.4%) on 27 April 2018 and achieved as closing price on 30 July 2018, some 3 months later.

Target raised from 24.94p to 33.60p (+ 34.7%) on 13 August 2018. It is now 7 weeks since this target was set. If previous pattern is anything to go by then this target should be achieved in the next six weeks. However since 13 August BMN have acquired an extra 14% of Vametco and the price of vanadium has risen by more than 25%. I would therefore expect this sp target to be reached sooner rather than later, not withstanding the dampening effect of the brief period of industrial action.

ARC

ARC set initial target of 14.00p on 01 March 2018, and achieved as closing price on 29 March 2018, just 1 month later.

ARC. Raised target from 14.00p to 19.80p (+ 41.4%) on 10 April, and achieved on 26 April 2018, just 2weeks later.

ARC on 29 June 2018 issued a note in which they confirm buy rating but I could not find a revised sp target.

ARC raised target to 36.2p on 26 Sept.

Conclusions

My conclusion is that SP Angel have been remarkably consistent at presenting an achievable target that in 2018 each time has taken 3 to 4 months to reach. Not everyone will agree but I like SP Angel's conservative sp targets that can be achieved in just a few months.

All data taken from links on TBP and HL chart page for BMN. All opinions are my own.

Thanks for your response jjhbev. All food for thought.

Common sense tells me that if Largo are that far ahead of us on valuation and therefore share price then it is only a matter of time before the market catches on and our sp responds accordingly.

And of course that is just for Vametco. The key long term difference between BMN and Largo may well turn out to be our diversity of revenue sources From quality assets.

Regards. Pdub.

And of course not forgetting a possible BMN dividend payment ?

Excellent posts and comparison jjhbev.

I wonder what difference TSX and AIM makes and what impact a JSX listing is likely to have?