Member Info for Pdub

jamiejojo I think everyone can understand your frustration but I also believe shareholders also need to post responsibly. If you hope that your investment will increase in value I fail to see how you are helping that cause.

One thing I have learnt after 40 years of owning and skippering yachts is that fear and panic spread quickly. If I show concern that is rapidly picked up by the crew and impacts on their confidence and enjoyment. I believe the same can happen on bb's. Shorters know that. Why do you think they spend so much time attempting to disrupt sensible debate?

We expect the BoD to act in a responsible manner. But shouldnt we as shareholders at least in some way do the same?

Regards. Pdub.

Daisan I have read your posts again. Perhaps I put it too strongly but in fairness in three posts in a row you make reference to possibity if long term holders selling. One can argue whether or not that is suggesting ...

Regards. Pdub.

A little over 1/2% of BMN shares traded today yet the sp is dropped nearly 10%. Anyone who thinks normal market dynamics caused this is simply delusional. This has been manipulated down.

A short of the size being discussed here is most certainly NOT insignificant on such low volume. Today's price move proves that. Those that said no shorts happening were proven wrong by Endion (well done to you).

I also suspect the mm's have used Bed and ISA trades to confuse and move price down over the last few days. If Alfa is correct about the large amount they are short then they must be loving the poor old panicked pi's giving shares away.

Daisan you have suggested LTHs selling down. I trust you have evidence. If not perhaps best leave that suggestion alone. And for the record I have not sold a single share.

As for chartists claiming they predicted this ... yes you did ... after it happened. Naughty naughty.

Then there are the unsubstantiated suggestions about negatives such as bonus not agreed, etc, try sticking to what you can substantiate with evidence, instead of trying to panic other shareholders.

Vanadium price move has been surprising and I suspect this temporary effect will soon reverse as the structural deficit in the market remains. Combine that with better production figures and I would not be surprised to see a significant recovery in the sp.

It is interesting to see who crawls out of the woodwork whenever the price drops. Names noted!

Final point. The company is still very profitable at this level as I believe in H1 production costs were under $20 mtV so Q1 figures will be interesting. Fundamentals of the company remain unchanged.

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

Not sure about that Headancer. No real evidence of drop in 2017 winter and from October to April in 2018(ie winter in China) there was an almost continuos rise form 35p to about 68p.

I remain convinced that this recent drop was due to a number of specific issues (indeed one of which is a winter steel mill shut down but not the only one). Once these issues are cleared, and we may be close, then I would expect rising V prices once more. The structural deficit is still there!

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

Good find SG.

As I have said before in my opinion the vanadium price downturn is temporary. That post by SG seems to support what I have said through sustained high steel demand in China. Gradual enforcement of new rebar regs should begin to raise vanadium demand and therefore price. Looks good for primary vanadium suppliers .... like BMN!

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

Who are you calling a moron lol

Downingman you have my sympathy over the unfortunate timing. I don't think anyone expected this temporary (in my opinion) drop in V price. However the structural deficit in the vanadium market and the fundamentals of the company remain the same as when you bought in so hopefully your expectations will be fulfilled. Good luck.

Regards. Pdub.

Seaside "... Board struggling to prioritise..."

Now I have read a lot of silly statements on this bb but that one must rank near the top!

What are you talking about? This company has gone through an amazing transition from junior wannabe mining explorer to a miner and producer, giving huge returns to those shareholders wise and patient enough to hold onto their shares.

They are delivering 100% on their plan to become a large low cost vertically integrated vanadium play. Everything they are doing is in pursuance of that goal.

They have wisely created separate platforms within the company and are strengthening the management structure. They have given clear plans to increase production at Vametco, and although they have encountered issues along the way they published guidance on what steps were being taken to solve these problems, just as one would expect from a good management team.

Plans to start production of electrolyte are well advanced and the lower V price must surely help the growth of the VRFB industry with BE in an excellent position to lead from the front.

They have created partnerships with a number of organisations that should help move things forward. BMNs business plan seems to be in total alignment with the policies of the SA Government.

And of course work is going on to prove up the Vametco and Brits assets. They are also awaiting Mokopane licence and a brown field acquisition is still on the table.

I would say they are prioritised up to their eyeballs! I firmly believe 2019 will turn out to be a very exciting year for BMN and its shareholders.

All just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

ps let's not forget a recovery in V price, a dividend policy and JSE listing. Oh and Lemur progressing well!

Thanks Alfa for all the hard work. A very interesting read !

Regards. Pdub.

Quote by 1onic on 13.04.2019 at 15.57:

"The supposed structural deficit everyone is fond of quoting has a limited shelf life, don't see much sign of it so far anyway."

You have to laugh. Better open your eyes and learn then. To help you here is an extract from Roskill:

"Consensus on the ground in China is that the enforcement of new rebar regulations (currently a tolerance period is ongoing) will ramp-up, albeit gradually, in 2019. This will increase China’s intensity of use of vanadium and drive strong growth in vanadium demand. As a result, Roskill expects the market to remain in deficit for some time. There can only be a limited short-term supply response as vanadium co-producers (which account for 70% of supply) are governed by iron and steel market dynamics. There is also limited upside potential from primary and secondary supply, save for Chinese coal stone (an important vanadium-bearing resource in China)."

https://roskill.com/news/vanadium-2019-set-to-be-interesting-year-for-the-market/

And the above appears to not depend on significant impact of VRFBs. That would be another exciting element in the mix.

If you think Roskill and the vanadium industry are wrong don't tell us, use the link to contact Jack Beddar and see what they say. I look forward to your report back after discussing this with experts (unless you think you know more than they do!?!)

Thanks Roscon. Very much appreciated.

Regards. Pdub.

Lucan plenty in the BE update to suggest costs of the current BE projects at least to some extent shared.

"Combined with our ongoing work with the Industrial Development Corporation on electrolyte manufacturing, the Eskom project and now the hybrid mini-grid will demonstrate solutions to South Africa's energy challenges that can utilise South African sourced materials." Co-operation with IDC on various projects.

"The system (Eskom VRFB project) is co-owned by Bushveld Energy and the Industrial Development Corporation ("IDC")." This implies shared costs between the owners.

Minigrid: "Similar to the structure of the projects covering the electrolyte production facility and the Eskom VRFB, Bushveld Energy will continue using its cooperation model in developing and delivering this project. Cooperating partners will include project development and investment, project finance and engineering, procurement, construction and integration." Implies shared costs with partners.

Electrolyte production facility: "The electrolyte production facility is being co-developed by Bushveld Energy and the IDC." Again implies shared costs with IDC.

Just my thoughts but looks like BMN are not shouldering the entire costs of these projects. And after all they are cash rich.

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

Ionic you clearly regard yourself as something of an expert so would you please address the points that I raised to demonstrate why the underlying structural deficit no longer exists.

I acknowledged the short term factors that have surprised everyone with their impact on vanadium prices. However as a longterm investor I am interested in the longterm price. So please either acknowledge that the structural deficit still exists or provide evidence of new sources of supply or reductions in demand that will correct that deficit.

Please remember I am not addressing thus short term price adjustment.

Thanks for confirming loudspeaker. That was also my understanding.

Regards. Pdub.

Daisan could be an interesting few months here if we are correct, and also Vametco return improvements to production.

Regards. Pdub.

Thanks RK for your kind words. Having a relaxing birthday at home. Big bonus is that so far chemo side effects have not kicked in.

Regards. Pdub.

For 1onic I re-post my thoughts on vanadium prices.

"This feels like a significant over correction in the price.

Several reasons have been discussed here. eg stockpiling pre China rebar regs being sold off, winter shut down of some Chinese steel plants reducing demand, slower than expected enforcement of new Chinese regs, etc.

However none of these represent a long term impact on the structural deficit in the vanadium market. Eventually Chinese steel production will have to conform. Stockpiles will be exhausted. Winter shutdowns coming to an end.

Unless someone can correct me with specific examples I am not aware of any significant short term increases to production from existing plants or new sources coming on stream to boost supply and end the structural deficit. Nor am I aware of any significant longterm reduction in demand from the steel industry. And of course we are seeing the beginnings of demand for VRFBs which should gather pace in the coming months and years.

I am no vanadium (or any other metals) market expert, but simply applying logic and common sense I fail to find any other conclusion that the V price will bottom soon and start a recovery."

This is the 3rd time I have posted this, inviting anyone to produce evidence that the vanadium structural deficit has changed. No one has. I can only assume that the reason is that it has not changed, nor is likely to in the short to medium term. Thus when the temporary factors mentioned above have worked through the system I see only one direction of travel for vanadium prices .... upwards.

... That most experts on vanadium disagree with you.

MIKINAMAN if you are looking for a charity I would suggest Salisbury District Hospital Stars Appeal. They have finished the fund raise for second MRI Scanner but the charity does much good work in other areas of the hospital.

Just a thought.

Regards. Pdub.

An o/t to say thank you to GND, Alfa and to all those who have helped with my musical obsession. It was very kind of you all and a big surprise for me. I will enjoy the search for the right one. Just the sort of medicine I needed.

Kind regards. Pdub.,