Member Info for Pdub

Correct. One major producer.

I believe Alfa has previously explained that Niobium is not as good as vanadium, but if correct Alfa would need to explain that one. Above my level.

Second everything in that post Alfa.

So we now have AsianMetals and MetalBulletin showing increases in China FerroVanadium prices in the last week. This needs to be regularly flagged up against those who would seek to harm the sp.

I wonder if this will encourage buyers on Tuesday if they perceive that the V price downturn is over? Wouldn't surprise me!

Regards. Pdub.

mick-b I'm afraid that is old news. Keep up.

I am looking at a second source on vanadium prices that is indicating that this week the trend has turned up. This iss very important if it signals a general recovery in V prices. If the decline in V price affected the sp then it is reasonable to expect a rise to help shift the sp up. See where I am coming from? It is the last week info that is crucial.

Loudspeaker I really appreciate your work on V prices. Keep 'em coming.

Looking at your latest post for prices on 18.04.19 China Ferrovanadium $50 to $54 kgV. Compare that to your previous post of prices on 12.04.19 where China Ferrovanadium appears to be $45 to $47 kgV.

Unless I am reading this wrong that is a very significant reversal of the price trend ie about 10% UP. Is that how you read the data?

If true this is grounds to be positive about the sp. can you confirm?

Regards. Pdub.

The total cash outlay of acquiring a 74% interest in the Vametco mine and producing plant was just $48 million. Ebitda for H1 2018 was $43 million. !!!

That is a fantastic deal / bargain. It turned a junior explorer into a highly profitable miner and explorer. It avoided the huge cost in of building a new plant and recruiting staff, and in a relatively short period of time. Brilliant.

That must surely be the best example of a "pragmatic, executable path to production" I have ever seen.

I believe it was SP Angel's John Meyer who described this as one of the best deals he had seen. The phrase "cash cow" has been linked to this deal!

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

Therefore for the time being we rely on the use of vanadium in steel as the main market for Vametco product. That market over the last few months became quite volatile but I still see the key factors as short term. Perhaps the flattening out of vanadium prices in China this week followed by a 2% rise in FeV on Friday marks the return to normal market conditions and the beginning of a recovery in vanadium prices.

It is worth repeating that when BMN were negotiating to buy Vametco the price of Vanadium was around $16 kgV ! Certainly helped acquire the plant for a bargain price. At that time we could only dream of $30 kgV. With today's cost of production under $20 kgV then Vametco is highly profitable even at the current vanadium price.

No doubt some will try to exploit today's short term sp and V price. I remain focussed on the longterm business strategy and the potential for very significant returns on my investment.

All just my opinion. DYOR.

Regards. Pdub.

Perhaps at this point it is appropriate to remind ourselves that Fortune Mojapelo is an excellent strategist and maybe one of the reasons that many LTHs are holding for future gains. Certainly one of my key considerations.

Some years ago he announced plans to grow BMN into a low cost vertically integrated vanadium platform, long before I heard anyone else referring to this concept. This was never going to be quick or easy. However once completed there is the potential for considerable returns on shareholder investment. The beauty of this strategy is that when vanadium prices are high BMN makes large profit from sales to the steel industry. We have seen this over the last 18 months and that has provided funds for investment in the expansion of production and other developments. However the recent drop in vanadium prices has made VRFBs far more viable so longterm BMN makes money from energy storage. Remember MN forecast that side of the business to be huge. This is moving towards win win for the company and its shareholders.

Of course the VRFB industry is in its infancy so we are talking about future potential. But isn't this exactly the opportunity that wise investors look for? Find an investment opportunity with great potential and get in early.

Pressure is growing to switch from fossil fuels to renewable energy and energy storage. Then there is the great need to develop off grid energy production and storage, particularly in parts of Africa. Political support in SA is growing and international funds are beginning to declare an interest. BE has already benefitted from a grant from the World Bank. It is my opinion that this is becoming an unstoppable wave of opportunity for companies like BMN.

BMN / BE are already working with their US partner UET on VRFBs and also partner the IDC. Their strategy of vertical integration is completely in line with the SA Government's desire to see local added value industries and employment, develop the mining industry, and to help to solve SA's electricity generation and supply issues. BE is currently building an electrolyte plant and a VRFB is on test with Eskom. Plans have been announced for a solar and battery storage project at Vametco.

Now these developments, not just in SA but globally, are likely to lead to an increase in the demand for vanadium. New sources and increased production at existing plants like Vametco will eventually meet some of this demand, but that will take time. I can't see the current structural deficit in the vanadium market disappearing any time soon. Even when production is increased, if VRFBs take off big time then there still may be a shortfall in vanadium supply. Add to that more enforcement of Chinese rebar regs and it is not difficult to see where things are heading. It is also worth noting that more realistic vanadium prices remove the pressure for steel makers to switch to niobium as a substitute.

Therefore for the time being we rely on the use of vanadium in

Strider to a certain extent I agree with some of your comments as you are discussing what may go on inside an investor's head.

However the reality is that a share loss or profit is not real until those shares are sold. FACT. Ask HMRC for clarification on that one. Try buying a new car on your paper profit. You can't. You have to sell the shares to realise the profit.

For me BMN is different .... A once in a lifetime investment. I have done very well so far but expect far greater profits to come. I have been in exactly the same position as those that bought in at higher than today's price, except I was in that position for over two years, and for some months 60% down. I don't need moral lectures on that. If those that bought in did so for the right reasons, ie the fundamentals of the company and the vanadium and energy storage markets, then like me they will be confident about the future despite the recent manipulation of the sp.

I do understand that you are a trader and have very short term vision and expectations. I am very different. I see the enormous potential of this company and expect to do very well over the next year or so by maintaining my investment in BMN. So far BMN performance as a company has been outstanding, resulting in it becoming one of the best performing shares on AIM over the last two calendar years. Once this short term pull back in sp is over, then I expect the remainder of 2019 / 2020 to be a very exciting time for BMN and it's genuine shareholders.

All just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

Strider what are you on about. Any half wit knows the difference between paper and real profi on shares.

Give it a rest for goodness sake.

As for your "averaging down" comment and attached sweeping statement then tell me this. When the share price was 2p and below and my average at the time I believe was around 4p was I on the road to ruin by buying loads more and getting that average right down? Before answering can I remind you that those shares are worth around 26p each, even after the recent manipulated drop.

Now I really don't think you have anything more to add on these topics that is of interest to me. Intelligent debate I enjoy but this pedantic nonsense is a waste of time. Go enjoy your paper profit down the pub. See how far you get with that.

Regards. Pdub.

Hey Richy always good to have a new poster contributing.

I see that you mainly contribute to the CASP bb. This intrigued me so I had a little sniff around the financials for the company. Most recent I could find was Interim Report for H1 2018. This appears to show a LOSS before tax of $1,383,000. I was rather surprised to read this given your sudden appearance and negativity on the BMN bb. For comparison the BMN Interim Report for H1 2018 shows a Ebitda (Earnings before Tax, etc) to be £31.7 million from a revenue of £62 million, and profit after tax of £21 million. And remember that's £'s not $ !!!! The average price of vanadium during H1 was $65.5 kgV

I can understand why you might be wanting to invest elsewhere!

CASP have not published any more recent financials so I had a look at their updates. As far as I can tell the company appears to have revenue from shallow wells of about $1 million per month, give or take. Correct? So about $3 million per quarter. However am I correct to think there are some large costs associated with the deep well operations that may be sucking up any profit?

For comparison BMN Q4 update shows Revenue at Vametco for Q4 to be $60 million and Ebitda $39.6 million. BMN are 74% owners of Vametco. The result of this is that Vametco and BMN are cash rich.

It is true that the price of vanadium has fallen. However BMN have stated that pricing of their product lags by about 4weeks. Thus Q1 pricing based on Dec Jan and Feb V price. This appears to give an average price of $70 + kgV for Q1. That's higher than H1 2018 which gave very significant profit. Thus the cash keeps rolling in!

Also remember that they are working hard to increase production at Vametco. This will offset some of the drop in price of vanadium. Of course I have only covered one part of BMN operations. The energy storage business looks particularly exciting.

Do remember that Vametco Vanadium production costs for 2018 were less than $20 kgV. This is highly significant as Vametco is highly profitable even at around $45 to $50 kgV !!!

Now Richy I need to comment on some of the silly statements you have made here.

"I think the share price will drop 70% to match the down turn in vanadium prices. Here is an interesting link so you can track the prices,"

Richy the sp already has dropped! Good grief!

More importantly last week evidence from China indicates that the Vanadium price not only levelled out but on Friday it rose 2%. I believe we may now see a recovery in vanadium prices as the short term factors have worked through.

The BMN sp also appears to be stabilising around 26p + or - a p. In my opinion the fall in both vanadium price and sp were overdone and I expect an upturn in both.

So unless you can justify your statements with evidence your comments are simply going to be regarded as a joke.

Finally if you decide to buy I wish you good luck with your investment.

All just my opinion. DYOR

Regards. Pdub.

Richy I am working on a response to you that will take a little time. Good luck.

Regards. Pdub.

Haha Strider you are funny. I love your posts. Good light relief.

I spent over two years underwater in BMN back in 2015 / 2016 but never lost a penny. Why? Because I didn't sell any. It was only a paper loss. Instead of selling I bought more and reduced my average. At one point in 2018 I was 2000% + up. Those same shares that were paper losses.

If you can't understand that a paper loss only becomes real if you sell then I can't help you. In much the same way paper profits only become real profit when you sell. It really isn't difficult for most people to understand. I know you traders will say anything to suit your purpose, but come on .... And trust me I know this point only too well. My paper profit here was a 6 figure sum higher than now when the sp was 48p +. I didn't sell (I'm not a trader in BMN) so if according to you that is real profit where is it? So don't try to convince me with arguments on this point. There is a huge difference between paper and real losses and profit.

And yes the sp does appear to have stabilised around 26p. However unlike you I don't claim to know future share price. It may well rise next week now that there are positive signs on vanadium price in China. I agree that if that happens then my stable price idea would be wrong. I am willing to live with that error! Still that would suit you as you are now the proud owner of BMN shares. Unless of course you have sold them already and want cheaper entry again ... Oh of course.

Just my opinion.

Sorry made same mistake should be £21 million !!!

I wonder if anyone is spending their holiday discussing shares they are not invested in? Sad.

I would say the share price has stabilised over the last few days at either side of 26p.

Also good to see evidence as posted on this bb with links over the last few days that vanadium price in China has stabilised, and FeV 80% up 2.06% today. That is just as some of us have indicated was likely to happen.

http://www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html

Just my opinion but smart money should be going into vanadium companies like BMN as evidence indicates the halt to vanadium price decline and sp at very good value compared to recently.

Paper loss is NOT a real loss. Only selling creates a real loss. Surely every intelligent investor knows that.

Vametco production costs for 2018 were $19.7 kgV (Even less in Q1). The company has stated that there us a 1 month lag in pricing. Therefore the achieved prices for Vametco for Q1 are likely to be in the $70 to $75 range, not far below the $81 average for 2018 that generated Ebitda of $107 million. BMN own 74% of Vametco! Q1 likely to return some very encouraging figures. If the planned production increases are starting to show then revenue and profit will be even higher.

Also for comparison H1 2018 Bushveld Minerals consolidated post tax profit was £21 million with an average Vanadium price of $65, ie lower vanadium price than Q1 is likely to be.

Also remember that Phase 2 and 3 production expansion costs would need to be met by Vametco profits, not just the 74% attributable to BMN.

Vametco and BMN appear to be cash rich and in a strong position going forward. I look forward to Q1 results final results for confirmation but looking very good. And very important that unlike Largo BMN is DEBT FREE.

I repeat DEBT FREE !!!

Dividend policy to be announced in final results. I don't expect an immediate payout, though can't rule it out. However a positive dividend policy should turn a few institutional heads!

Wise investors always invest for potential in growth companies like BMN. Many that's where the future profits lie.

All the above is just my opinion and the remainder of 2019 looks very exciting.

Regards. Pdub.

To avoid confusion corrected version of 15.21 post

I wonder if anyone is spending their holiday discussing shares they are not invested in? Sad.

I would say the share price has stabilised over the last few days at either side of 26p.

Also good to see evidence as posted on this bb with links over the last few days that vanadium price in China has stabilised, and FeV 80% up 2.06% today. That is just as some of us have indicated was likely to happen.

http://www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html

Just my opinion but smart money should be going into vanadium companies like BMN as evidence indicates the halt to vanadium price decline and sp at very good value compared to recently.

Paper loss is NOT a real loss. Only selling creates a real loss. Surely every intelligent investor knows that.

Vametco production costs for 2018 were $19.7 kgV (Even less in Q1). The company has stated that there us a 1 month lag in pricing. Therefore the achieved prices for Vametco for Q1 are likely to be in the $70 to $75 range, not far below the $81 average for 2018 that generated Ebitda of $107 million. BMN own 74% of Vametco! Q1 likely to return some very encouraging figures. If the planned production increases are starting to show then revenue and profit will be even higher.

Also for comparison H1 2018 Bushveld Minerals consolidated post tax profit was £21 with an average Vanadium price of $65, ie lower vanadium price than Q1 is likely to be.

Also remember that Phase 2 and 3 production expansion costs would need to be met by Vametco profits, not just the 74% attributable to BMN.

Vametco and BMN appear to be cash rich and in a strong position going forward. I look forward to Q1 results final results for confirmation but looking very good. And very important that unlike Largo BMN is DEBT FREE.

I repeat DEBT FREE !!!

Dividend policy to be announced in final results. I don't expect an immediate payout, though can't rule it out. However a positive dividend policy should turn a few institutional heads!

Wise investors always invest for potential in growth companies like BMN. Many that's where the future profits lie.

All the above is just my opinion and the remainder of 2019 looks very exciting.

Regards. Pdub.

Important correction to my 15.21 post:

"Also for comparison H1 2018 Bushveld Minerals consolidated post tax profit was £21 with an average Vanadium price of $65, ie lower vanadium price than Q1 is likely to be."

I wonder if anyone is spending their holiday discussing shares they are not invested in? Sad.

I would say the share price has stabilised over the last few days at either side of 26p.

Also good to see evidence as posted on this bb with links over the last few days that vanadium price in China has stabilised, and FeV 80% up 2.06% today. That is just as some of us have indicated was likely to happen.

http://www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html

Just my opinion but smart money should be going into vanadium companies like BMN as evidence indicates the halt to vanadium price decline and sp at very good value compared to recently.

Paper loss is NOT a real loss. Only selling creates a real loss. Surely every intelligent investor knows that.

Vametco production costs for 2018 were $19.7 kgV (Even less in Q1). The company has stated that there us a 1 month lag in pricing. Therefore the achieved prices for Vametco for Q1 are likely to be in the $70 to $75 range, not far below the $81 average for 2018 that generated Ebitda of $107 million. BMN own 74% of Vametco! Q1 likely to return some very encouraging figures. If the planned production increases are starting to show then revenue and profit will be even higher.

Also for comparison H1 2018 Bushveld Minerals consolidated post tax profit was $21 with an average Vanadium price of $65, ie lower than Q1 is likely to be.

Also remember that Phase 2 and 3 production expansion costs would need to be met by Vametco profits, not just the 74% attributable to BMN.

Vametco and BMN appear to be cash rich and in a strong position going forward. I look forward to Q1 results final results for confirmation but looking very good. And very important that unlike Largo BMN is DEBT FREE.

I repeat DEBT FREE !!!

Dividend policy to be announced in final results. I don't expect an immediate payout, though can't rule it out. However a positive dividend policy should turn a few institutional heads!

Wise investors always invest for potential in growth companies like BMN. Many that's where the future profits lie.

All the above is just my opinion and the remainder of 2019 looks very exciting.

Regards. Pdub.

dixies only you know what your targets and timescales are. Therefore only you can decide what to do.

As a longterm investor in BMN my vision goes well beyond today's share price. My holding in BMN has reduced by a six figure sum in the last few months. Obviously I would rather that hadn't happened, but in my view the potential of this company offers the possibility of far greater returns than those paper reductions in value. That is why I am not selling.

Those that have been in BMN a long time have seen share price pull backs before, and then experienced the excitement of rapid recovery. There is so much that is exciting in the business plan that I want to be here to see those plans come to fruition and hopefully have that reflected in the value of my investment.

However that is just my honest opinion. I have done very well so far but there are no guarantees in this type of investing.

Regards. Pdub.

If anyone is in any doubt whether BMN is more than just a miner I suggest you visit the 2019 Corporate Presentation (link below) and study slides 45 and 46. Only the first stage is mining. There follows a complex series of stages to process the raw material into the finished product - Nitrovan.

http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/March-2019-Corporate-Presentation.pdf

Zebediah they are already in partnership with UET, a significant US VRFB player, together with agreements with the IDC and some funding from the World Bank (I believe that was the grant source). This is happening. Small beginnings yes BUT the move to renewables is gathering pace I believe faster than many predicted just a few years ago, and energy storage is part of that plus its value in other grid functions.

Saying it's not going to add anything to the share price is rather pointless in the sense that you have no idea how big this market will be, what BE share of it will be, how long this will take and what the profit margin is for each individual unit is.

I agree that if you are the typical AIM make a quick buck and out, talking much bol**cks along the way then you may not benefit from these exciting developments. However if you are a proper investor, interested in the companies that you invest in, are well researched and have even a moderate amount of patience, then the Bushveld Energy story may hold more than just a little appeal.

As for your other point about miner / processor I simply have to disagree with you. The value is in the processing stage. It is quite possible that Mokopane will begin life as a mine shipping ore out. But I wouldn't mind betting the company will seek to start processing that ore into finished product ASAP, whether through brownfield site or longer term the construction of a processing plant at Mokopane. Why would they do that? To benefit from the added value! I repeat they they are not just a miner and you are doing the company a disservice by persisting with that line, against all the evidence.

However I suspect that no matter what arguments or evidence is given to you your position won't change so I will leave it there.

Regards. Pdub.