Member Info for Pdub

Hi Paludina. Great work on shipments.

In my earlier post I tried to suggest Q shipments and deliberately engaged a one month delay as a crude estimate from production to delivery eg Jan production delivered to US in Feb. Plenty of assumptions but gives a broad picture.

Regards. Pdub.

Forget my last post.

James isn't the product Nitrovan? So production total, sales total and shipping total are all the same units? Happy to be corrected by those more knowledgable eg Alfa?

You are a kind and generous man MIKINAMAN

(I would let you buy me a drink on Friday for that praise but sadly not allowed alcohol!)

Regards. Pdub.

No I haven't James. Just the raw data as basis for a discussion point. Thanks for pointing that out.

My main purpose was to highlight the possibility that Q1 deliveries to US are substantial and if the next ship delivers a substantual package that MIGHT be used as evidence for increasing production. Certainly looks encouraging.

I fully accept that the numbers are open to interpretation and correction. That's fine. It does not distract from the general point. I imagine a lot of eyes will be watching for Paludina's next shipping log update!

Anyway Q1 production figures will be revealed in the next update likely to arrive in the next few days or weeks.

Regards. Pdub.

SG that's an interesting a triple from a number of perspectives.

Chinese rebar prices rising!

Steel prices rising!

Top steel making city reduces steel output through smog alert. Now that is interesting as Tangshan was the victim of one of the world's most deadliest earthquakes in 1976. The official death toll is around 240,000 but whole families were wiped out ant it is impossible to say exactly what the true figure was. Most likely much higher. If ever there was a city in Chiba where the population have very good grounds for demanding enforcement of the new rebar regulations it is Tangshan!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_Tangshan_earthquake

Here is an extract from Roskill:

"Consensus on the ground in China is that the enforcement of new rebar regulations (currently a tolerance period is ongoing) will ramp-up, albeit gradually, in 2019. This will increase China’s intensity of use of vanadium and drive strong growth in vanadium demand. As a result, Roskill expects the market to remain in deficit for some time. There can only be a limited short-term supply response as vanadium co-producers (which account for 70% of supply) are governed by iron and steel market dynamics. There is also limited upside potential from primary and secondary supply, save for Chinese coal stone (an important vanadium-bearing resource in China)."

https://roskill.com/news/vanadium-2019-set-to-be-interesting-year-for-the-market/

And the above appears to not depend on significant impact of VRFBs. That would be another exciting element in the mix.

If you think Roskill and the vanadium industry are wrong don't tell us, use the link to contact Jack Beddar and see what they say. I look forward to your report back after discussing this with experts (unless you think you know more than they do!?!)

Regards. Pdub.

Positive points from BMN presentation in March:

Targeting 10,000 mtV in medium term. (That's around 4 x total production for 2018 which generated Ebitda > $100 million)
Targeting 1,000 MWh opportunities by 2020.
The largest primary vanadium resource.
Brits mineral resource estimate expected Q1 2019. Similar grades to Vametco.
Mokopane expecting granting of mining licence.
Mokopane 3 options under consideration:
- Supply ore to China
- Supply ore to other brownfield plants
- develop greenfield integrated mine and processing plant producing 5,500 mtV pa V2O5 flake product
A sustained structural market deficit in vanadium, with 'significant' price upside!!
Vanadium use in VRFBs could grow from 2% of global total vanadium to 44% by 2027 !!!
New rebar standard in China and increasing enforcement driving greater vanadium intensity of use use in steel.
To become a significant electricity storage provider in Africa by 2020.
Outline a capital framework and dividend policy in Q1 2019 ( ie less than 4 weeks !!)
List on the JSE by end 2019.

Committed to providing attractive returns for shareholders!!!!!

http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/March-2019-Corporate-Presentation.pdf

That is amazing considering where the company was in late 2016 and similarly the sp.

Such an exciting year ahead.

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

Sitonthefence excellent first first. Most of us have been in a similar position at some time. However if your reasons for buying were based on the fundamentals then best ignore the despicable characters that seek to criticise genuine investors and cast doubt in the minds of pi's and their own selfish gains. Some are at work today.

There will always be short term market and sp turnarounds but I believe we are about to to the next positive period of sp and vanadium price growth.

This company is one of those rare AIM success stories and I anticipate an exciting 2019 / 2020.

By the way the same stupid negativity has been posted here on and off since the sub 2p days. How wrong they were then and in my opinion the same now.

Just my opinion.

Good luck with your investment.

Regards. Pdub

... must be a nightmare for shorters. They are locked out of markets for 4 days. Now we have hard evidence that Vanadium prices are rising and from shipping logs there is some evidence to suggest that production is rising too.

I can't predict market activity next week but I would not be surprised if buyers begin to seize this opportunity. Shorters scrambling to close? Traders wanting back in? Investors wanting cheap shares? Who knows. Could this generate a decent rise in sp?

What I do expect is a busy day from the derampers desperately trying to talk the share down. Despicable that these people try to panic pi's into selling just so they can buy those same shares cheaply. However I think their job just became very much more difficult. Good!

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

I have been taking a look at the shipping data provided by Paludina and combined it with production and sales data from RNSs.

Nitrovan data as of 21.04.19

Year / Q / mtV arrived US / mtV produced / myV sold / US mtV as % mtV produced
2017 / Q2 / 498 / 794 / 697 / 63%
2017 / Q3 / 458 / 669 / 744 / 68%
2017 / Q4 / 265 / 539 / 636 / 49%
2018 / Q1 / 383 / 731 / 690 / 52%
2018 / Q2 / 345 / 629 / 713 / 55%
2018 / Q3 / 454 / 537 / 584 / 85%
2018 / Q4 / 417 / 657 / 586 / 63%
2019 / Q1 / 454 /

I have assumed at least 1 month delay from production to arrival in US. For example 2018 Q1 mtV produced and sold covers the period Jan Feb March, whereas arrived US covers Feb March and April shipments data. I acknowledge that there may be some inaccuracies as a result of this assumption.

4556 mtV produced Q2 2017 to Q4 2018 inclusive (ie since BMN had an interest in Vametco). 4650 mtV sold. Total shipped to US 2820 mtV (62% of V produced)

Interesting that over the period Vametco appear to have sold about 94 tons more than they produced. Errors in data, recording periods, my assumption above, etc could possibly account for some of this. It could also be explained by the sale of market ready stock that we were informed came with the initial Vametco purchase and if I recall had a value of roughly $12 million, though that figure is from memory.

What is interesting is that so far arrivals in the US for 2019 Q1 are already at 454 tons and with another week to go of the Q. Paludina yesterday posted that there is one more vessel to dock before end of April. That could typically deliver anything from 18 to 57 mtV. The last two ships delivered 56 and 57 mtV. Could Q1 deliveries top 500 mtV? Speculative of course but not impossible.

I am sure all true investors are keenly awaiting signs that production is increasing. Perhaps we are seeing it in this data. This combined with clear evidence from BOTH MetalBulletin and asiammetal that Vanadium prices are rising will no doubt begin to impact on the sp.

Opinions expressed here are just my own. Happy for any factual errors to be corrected.

Regards. Pdub.

You still banging on about this Strider? Get some rest. No doubt you'll need it for tomorrow's deramp lol.

Strider yesterday I was interested in what sort of person deramps the BMN bb over Easter (note past tense). My worst fears were confirmed lol.

For info I copied those posts presumably before any were removed. Interesting comments though.

And when you write "don't think you can compare it with BMN ... " Sorry but present tense.

"... Va has got the appeal of energy storage (the next big thing)..." Sorry but present and future.

I just thought others might be interested in what you had been saying about BMN elsewhere as it most definitely contradicts your negativity and attempts to discredit positive posters on this bb. Others can judge why you do that.

Strider after causing a bit of grief on BMN bb yesterday you were then very positive about BMN on the WRES bb. Now what could possibly motivate such behaviour from a trader like yourself? I see Troajan had some interesting comments to make about you. I reproduce those posts as supporting evidence.

Strider on WRES bb 11.51 on 20.04.19

"Don't think you can compare it to BMN, as they got the working plant as part of the deal - a real coup. Additionally, Va has got the appeal of energy storage (the big next thing), whereas tungsten is more run of the mill."

And again at 12.08

"Yes, BMN was the perfect storm of Va prices ballooning as a result of China's steel policy at the same time as their securing an additional 20 odd % of their flagship"

And on same bb by Troajan on Strider at 12.50

".... anyway,i see your doing the usual,arguing with all and sundry.
i bet when you was at school,you was gaggad and chained up in the cupboard.lol.lol.."

And on same bb by Troajan on Strider at 13.05

"they you go again.
now post wasnt insulting or anything else.
i gave an observation about your arguementive atitude....which your well aware of.
so has usual,you took it as a dig."

Good news Paludina.

Just done a very rough total of shipped vanadium for Q1 and looks like around 450 tons to US. BMN have published that 60% of product goes to US. IF, and admittedly a big if, 450 tons is 60% of product, thus suggests production may be moving towards 750 tons, or an annual rate of 3000 mtV. This would be very good news if true and combined with rising V prices as discussed earlier..

Of course this is somewhat speculative but Q1 figures could be encouraging.

Regards. Pdub.

The most viable model for VRFB success appears to be via a vertically integrated vanadium play as outlined by Fortune Mojapelo since 2014. A quick search of the Internet reveals that a number of other companies have now realised this is the way to go, but are likely to be some years behind BMN. Good to know that our CEO and MN are leading the way.

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/protean-energy-vertically-integrated-vanadium/

https://www.v23resource.com/vanadium

"It is likely that battery makers will address the issue of cost with greater volume in the market. That may also address comments about electrolyte feedstock materials price fluctuation in the manufacturing process. It would mean the cost per stored watt falls in the long term and cost-efficiency improves when the VRFB becomes widely used."

https://www.sunpowersource.com/vanadium-redox-flow-battery/

BMN is well placed to benefit from the growth of energy storage, initially in SA and perhaps in other parts of Africa. The growth in VRFB use is likely to have a significant impact on vanadium demand.

"Date: Feb 13, 2019
AIM-listed integrated vanadium producer Bushveld Minerals’ ambition is to grow into one of the world’s most significant, lowest cost and vertically integrated vanadium companies.

Through its vanadium mining subsidiary Bushveld Vanadium and its energy subsidiary,Bushveld Energy,the company has set a strong base from which to unlock the opportunity for downstream integration with Bushveld Vanadium as a captive vanadium supplier to Bushveld Energy, an energy storage project developer and component manufacturer, CHANTELLE KOTZEwrites."

And:

"The amount of vanadium needed in the Navigant and BMI Research assumptions, just for VRFB production, equates to the total amount of vanadium produced in 2017, which means that by 2027, energy storage demand for vanadium, could actually increase by between 50% and 100% in terms of 2017’s vanadium production."

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/bushveld-minerals-growing-to-be-a-world-class-vanadium-business/

Good post Joe.

Very kind RK but just telling it as I see it.

Regards. Pdub.