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Concerning 2020 & 2021 revenue – does some have the predicted sales ?
From 2019 we had ~ 6000 sales generating 1bn revenue. I read that the new factory production is 5000 units/year and can be at that rate in second half of 2021. Let’s assume the target was half that rate in 2020 – so 2500 units in a 12 month period.
Assume 3 months lost in 2020 for Gaydon production = 4500 units
Assume 6 months available in 2020 for DBX production = 1250 units
So in 2020 revenue will be on 5750 units total (same as 2019, but with higher overheads due to Covid and DFX startup)
In 2020 revenue will be on 11000 units total – so revenue approaching 2 bn.
New to all this – would be good to have comments: if 5% of post-rights shares (for example) are on the table because the owners are trading for a bit a cash, that’s 60M shares that need to find a home. In addition, if disclosed & non-disclosed shorts are ~ 3% that’s another 45 M shares. If daily ‘bought’ shares are averaging 10M since 20 April, and 50% of buy trades are Algos (say), then it’s going to take a minimum of 20 trading days since RI to wash thro (and that ignores all other PI that are buying within the 10M daily average).
Question about determining declared short positions. Gladstone declared their short position prior to the RI at 1.6% - so wrt 228m shares. They declared their updated position on 22 April reduced to 1.31% - is that wrt 228m, 304m (after placement shares) or 1514m after RI ? Prior to 20 April, there were several funds with a combined short position of 5.6%, but they all fell to zero on 20th - does this mean the position was closed or can it also be that a typical 1% position is divided by 5 (post RI) and therefore no longer tracked ?
Many thanks - very clear. I 've just read on the FCA site about forward positions that the declaration only has to be made when it reaches 0.5% of issued shares and then for each 0.1% increment. It also refers to 'public share notifications' and 'private share notifications' - I guess we are in a public share notification here, and includes any placement shares too.
Take a step back prior to the capital raise. The company is basically bankrupt. Intangible assets are the biggest positive number on the company accounts – rather strange. The share price is irrelevant as the LS investment team have more money in their back pocket than today’s market capitalization. Why does LS make an investment & rights issue in the middle of a World crisis in investor confidence – crisis is an opportunity – I guess a cunning plan to buy back the shares back at rock bottom. Yes, aim to buy at 35-40p soon, but then it could still go either way in the medium term.
Interesting to note that LS investors at 262 MGBP are effectively reimbursed by the +272 MGBP of the 228m initial shareholders. Nothing ventured nothing gained ! LS strategy seems to be to exploit these days of uncertainty (no press release to reassure) and allow the share price to flounder and gain more ownership at low price.
If you believe that AML won’t fail and the LS investors will support the company in the 12 months ahead, buy at 40p.
Effective price paid by LS investors is (225+30+30+30+30)/5 = 69p.
Effective price paid by IPO investors is 1900+30+30+30+30 = 404p.
Effective price of right issue shares released by battered investor is (~60+30+30+30+30)/5= 36p.
228m existing shares in March 2020.
76m placement shares to raise 171 MGBP via LStroll investors (so 225p paid by LS investors – 25% of shares ownership).
Now 304m shares.
4 for 1 rights issue at 30p – so 1216m new shares.
LS investors bring 30p*4 shares*76m = 91 MGBP.
Poor existing shares holders bring 30p*4 shares*228m = 274 MGBP.
Total raised capital is 171+91+274 = 536 MGBP (as announced in press).