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Noticed 'volume bought' is consistently larger than 'volume sold' for AML over the last weeks. UT volume not sufficient to make the difference. Can someone explain where the balance is made, or what this imbalance may imply .
Tried to research but no clear answer.
Cheers, PC62
Yes, I'm confident too. I do think that Q1 results Q&A session is weak in details and that's what spook's the fund mangers. Listen to that lack of precision in numbers and planning. Yes, Covid is difficult to handle and a lot of unknowns, but the answers have to be more convincing. When pressed about how many DBX deliveries is H2, the vague answer was there's 2000 in the order book and that's the number to base on - that's not good enough and it sounds like there's no solid plan - no way to make 2000 in 6 months of factory startup phase , when the max annual capacity of 5000 is targeted for late 2021. Need to be more solid with the numbers/scenarios as DBX is the backbone of the recovery. IMHO only.
@Whiteghost : Concerning your ref to 'parts stock' mentioned on rns podcast.....of the Q1 2020 results ?
https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/ui5zb9d9
Happy to be proven wrong because I'm a big supporter of AML, but the number I see at 1057 units Q1 2019 and 578 units Q1 in 2020. I agree the order book is full but if the factory is not producing then revenue can't be generated. We can imagine that revenue in Q2 will be close to zero - DBX is not quite there and Gaydon is closed. Not trying to be negative, just factual.
I guess many of you have read the transcript of the 2019 Full Year Results
https://amlcorp.blob.core.windows.net/default-storage/docs/default-source/documents/results-centre/2019---results-centre/fy---2019/aston-martin-lagonda-fy-2019-results---transcript.pdf?sfvrsn=5aec293a_2
Lots of info - positives and transparency of the challenges ahead. Q&A transcript less convincing. Even without Covid the 2020 revenues were heading below 2019 - and based on the content of the Q&A including comments on Covid, I'm estimating 300-400 M drop in 2020 revenues (my extrapolation is 3000 sports cars and 1200 DBX) - am I reading it wrong ? Thanks for your opinions and corrections.
@backinblac
"Could someone tell me as regards sales figures in Q1 - So AML are showing sales of ~500 units in Q1, does one add the 400+ units which were wound down at the dealers to get the total number of cars sold at retail outlets? Or is it a case the figures quoted by AML are the total figures?"
QI results 578 wholesale and 428 reduction in dealer inventory - that means they moved 1002 cars in Q1 - but the 428 income was probably in 2019 - so there are plenty of buyers (but with discounting as i understand).
Fully agree - the important point is not the SP its whether the medium term plan is viable - does the capital raise have sufficient margin to get through the tough period and into the DBX cash-cow phase. I think that Stroll has enough experience to navigate that.
@hillsmr
Interesting to know what you think about AML sales prediction this year.
From Gaydon I guess the target was about 5500 units – but with Covid more likely to be 4000 ?
From Wales, I guess the target was about 1500 units 2020 – but with Covid more likely to be 1000 ?