Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Spoke to dealer at Wilmslow, Cheshire - DBX ordered today would be delivered in April 2021 - seems healthy waiting list. They has 3 DBX on site (showroom/demonstartors).
They confirmed that the 1000 GBP deposit and 1000/month payments x 24 months is now over on Vantage (AML were giving 25k subsidy per car) - yes old news, but dealer worries about the flood that will come to the market at the end of the 24 month deal.
Their info was that Gaydon would restart production in a few weeks.
Spoke to 3 different staff - all confident about the new management.
was reading some standard stuff about demonstartors..
'.......The dealer would be given a bonus from the car company to go towards the registration and depreciation of putting a new vehicle on the test-drive fleet.....'
so this implies the dealer buys the car, but the manufacturing agrees to cover its operation as a demo. One of the BB readers must know more...
Cf no new - there was good news IMO (hiding) within the H1 results statement - '.....For the full year total wholesales are currently expected to be broadly evenly balanced between sports cars and DBX'
As sportscar wholesales were 895 units in H1 2020, we can guess that H2 will be a similar number, therefore DBX sales in 2020 will be 1800 units - that's a good start if its the reality. 4000 DFX units in 2021 can be on the cards.
Not posted for a while, but was looking at the H1 results and they seem very encouraging. Perhaps someone already made similar comments as below:
1770 retail sportscar units in a 6 month Covid affected period…..implies about 3500-4000 sportcar units can be achieved annually (H2 2020 onwards)
875 wholesale in same 6 month period (difference is destocking, and will continue in H2) implies ~1800 wholesale sportscars in 2020, associated with H1 results statement…. ‘the full year total wholesales are currently expected to be broadly evenly balanced between sports cars and DBX…..implies 1800 DBX in H2, 2020 – that’s a lot ! ……so production rate is already at ~ 3600 units/yr.
Jumping to 2021, these numbers suggest ~ 3500 sportcars and ~ 4000 DBX – the highest AML production rate ever achieved in recent years – looks like profit to me.
The goal is to get AML producing annually 5000 DBX and 3500 sportcars - perhaps in 2022 - few hundred million annual profit. This is the multi-year plan Stroll is talking about, and he wants to navigate there. Patience & hard work.
"The block of granite that was an obstacle in the pathway of the weak becomes a stepping-stone in the pathway of the strong." ~ Thomas Carlyle.
Getting a headache trying to work out how many sportscars AML made and sold in Q1 – need your help.
Looking at 2019 annual results – there were 5862 car volumes, creating 897.6 mGBP revenue – so that’s average revenue per car of 153.5 kGBP, and average production rate of 491 cars/month at Gaydon.
In Q1 2020, wholesales were 578 units, with revenue of 78.6 mGBP – so average revenue per car 136 kGBP (slightly lower, but consistent with 2019 figures).
Consider some options:
a)The destock in Q1 was 428, and if that’s within the 578 figure, then only 150 cars assembled in Q1 were sold (btw Gaydon had the capacity to produce 1473 cars in Q1 !)
b)The destock in Q1 was 428, and if that’s not within the 578, but implies 1006 total sales then the average revenue per car is 78131 kGBP – much too low
c)The destock in Q1 was 428, but these car didn’t create any revenue because already sold to the dealers in the previous financial year – from trading statement 6 June ‘…The Company has: continued to control wholesales (sales to dealers) to reduce dealer stock..”
Option a) would imply that Gaydon produced another 1300 cars in Q1 that are sitting in a car park somewhere (compared to b) & c) where the car park would have ~ 800 cars)
Option c) seems the only reasonable choice as the total sales of 1006 compare with the 1057 units in Q1 2019, and is reasonable wrt the Gaydon production rate.
Let’s assume option c) ie no revenue from destock, and then continue in 2020 revenue assessment.
Considering the statement in the Q1 results ‘…….dealer inventories decreased by 428 units year-to-date, with Vantage approaching half of the de-stock.’ As the 2019 destock was 190 units, it implies that the destock refers to (190+428)x2 = 1236 units, of which half ie 618 units still have to be destocked in 2020 – without revenue !
In trading statement of 26th June there was a further destocking of 189 units in April & May – so ~ 429 dealer destock units remaining.
Plus 800 cars in the car park – which will create revenue ~ 100 mGBP
578+428+189+429+800 = 2424 cars (reasonable for 2020 total sales) generating 100m+78m revenue.
St Athan will probably produce no more than ~ 1200 DBX in H2 generating 180 mGBP (max capacity of 5000 units is expected late 2021 with double shift).
Total revenue of 360mGBP compared to 1000 mGBP to barely keep afloat (2019 figures).
Conclusion – my figures are wrong or its highly likely we head for further cash raise in Q3/Q4 2020.
2021 revenues likely to be 3000 DFX (450 mGBP) & 3000 sportscars(450 mGBP) & 130 mGBP Valkeryrie etc.
Sorry for long mail.
Since the health of the shares should primarily be created by strong revenues, I'v put some figures together to try to understand where AML is heading in 2020 in terms of sales and revenues. The mail is long and might send you to sleep, but please pick holes and challenge my reasoning. Cheers !
@MadMan111
Thanks for the feedback - I'm happy to understand better how it works with the dealers payments on wholesales.
Looking back at the Q1 results there were 578 sales generating 78.6 mGBP revenue. Are you saying that he 428 destock is within that 578 figure ? If that’s true, the Q1 sales figures are truly poor (I assumed it was 578 +428, where the 428 units didn't generate 2020 revenue). Thanks for your thoughts.
@MadMan111
Agree with you on the numbers, but destocking doesn't create any AML revenue - the cars were sold to the dealers last year - so these are not AML sales.
What worries me is that there's no mention of any Q2 sales (but I'm sure there are), and the destocking rate has slowed - was 142/month in Q1 now 94/month for April& May.
At the end of Q1 they were 50% along the destock - so there's another 400 sportscars to destock (its why I beleive Gaydon is remaining closed for few more months IMO).
There's provision for further dilution - but unlikely to happen.
Its linked to the AGM Resolution 13 'To authorise the Directors to allot shares' which was adopted at the AGM.
In the Notice of AGM date is following text:
The first part of Resolution 13 would give the Directors the
authority to allot Ordinary Shares (or grant rights to
subscribe for or convert any securities into Ordinary Shares)
up to a maximum nominal amount equal to £4,574,082
(representing approximately 506,000,000 Ordinary Shares).
The second part of Resolution 13 would give the Directors
the authority to allot Ordinary Shares (or grant rights to
subscribe for or convert any securities into Ordinary Shares)
up to an aggregate nominal amount equal to £9,039,687
(representing approximately 1,000,000,000 Ordinary
Shares), in relation to a pre-emptive offer to existing
shareholders by way of a rights issue