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@adg1979
Good exercise to see where the numbers take us 2021-2024. Don't have any accountancy experience, so apologies if I'm asking a stupid questions.
You calculate 350 M profit in 2021 on a turnover of 6000 units - but in 2019 the turnover was 5800 units with a loss . The difference in 2021 is due to what ? I know Capex might be reduced, but this simply avoids further grow in the debt.
Definitely not de-ramping, but tying to be realistic. Here's my feeling from 30 years experience in engineering:
5000 is announced max production capacity to be achieved late 2021.
New model start-up in a new factory is a learning phase - small tweaks will still be required even after the pre-production trials - nobody wants quality issues.
Minor interruptions in the hundreds of parts suppliers (indirect from coronavirus) have to be factored in H2 period.
Minor slowdown due to Coronavirus precautions and flareups have to be factored in H2 period.
Production isn't instantly H2 revenue - there's a lag.
So DBX earnings will come from about 1200-1500 unis for H2 2020 - so very healthy. These are the sort of solid messages I'll be looking for, and happy to hear more optimistic numbers at the AGM, but with the facts to back them up.
IMHO the results are going to terrible - there are no revenues, and operating costs don't go to zero even if most of the assembly workers are furloughed.... the focus of the AGM is how to get out of the hole - it'll be about credibility of the message, and setting realistic milestones. For me its at 24 month investment.
From the Stroll Q1 statement
'We have made very good progress very quickly, with dealer inventory down 428 units in just one quarter, more than double the level achieved in the whole of 2019'
So in 2019 they reduced inventories by less than 214 units, and in Q1 2020 they reduced a further 428 - but what are the present inventories - anyone have numbers ?
Just thinking outside the box - for Stroll, what if the primary goal isn't about AML business or AMG business, but about giving his son the best possible backing to realise his dreams - of course he's interested in the business too, and will IMO do a great job - just a thought....
I have feeling that merc might impose their engine philosophy - economies of scale - it would make sense from financial point of view. Engineers working on how to make the exhaust sound right . Emissions is becoming a costly issue - in France you have to pay 20000 Euro penalty tax on the new car price for anything above CO2 185g/km - so its killing the sales.
@Jjtrader
I think you translated - Mercedes a placé Tobias Moers l’un des proches du Président du Directoire de Daimler, Ola Källenius, à la tête d’Aston Martin
In this context "l'un des proches" means ....close fiend......close colleague.....right hand man... but can also mean relative !!
think that the market euphoria of new CEO is being balanced by the risk of discovering skeletons. Going to take off big for sure, but will need to carefully manage the H1 results and H2 finances.
228m existing shares in March 2020.
76m placement shares to raise 171 MGBP via LStroll investors (so 225p paid by LS investors giving 25% of shares ownership).
Now 304m shares.
4 for 1 rights issue at 30p – so 1216m new shares.
LS investors bring 30p*4 shares*76m = 91 MGBP.
Existing shares holders bring 30p*4 shares*228m = 274 MGBP.
Total raised capital is 171+91+274 = 536 MGBP (as announced in press).
....fully agree about the Friday number, but in the action week 11-15 May we had 25m,25m,50m,35m,32m volumes - so perhaps the futures is different and we cannot compare - but would have expected more on DAX today - but our German friends are always cautious folks until official announcements....
...to the (3?) wise men.
Gladstone's disclosed short position is 2.45% - and it was initially opened before the RI and had been upward modified on several occasions afterwards.
Is it 2.45% of 1520m shares or 2.45% of 228m shares ? - I think the latter, so ~ 5.6m shares and not 37m shares.
@Pattsv.
Wrt to your earlier comment to GHippo '.....but you ask so many questions of a negative connotation, never positive..." does that mean positive supporters are required to be negative about AML from time-to-time ?