Member Info for PaulFG

I've never used the 'Filter' option before, but Christ it's filling up fast...

Nothing more needs to be said until after tomorrow's Stockbox conversation, if it goes ahead. As I remember the tweet said: "#StockBox are hoping to host #ECR CEO Craig Brown this Sunday on an interview, we will look to ask your question"

"HOPING..."

Ah just seen in Chairman's statement only 7%

Hi guys
Does anyone know what % of their production is hedged for 2021?

@botcoinbuyer - totally understand. I think that's where many traders/investors make their biggest mistake - they try to pick tops and bottoms (even the most professional traders struggle with this). In my experience the best and consistently most successful traders are quite happy to to bank the large wedge between tops and bottoms.

When I was being trained in the oil markets I remember a very seasoned oil trader at the time told me not to be greedy and leave something on the table for the next guy. DO that and you won't be looking to book every last penny and likely missing out on the fat middle margin.

JTB
huge lesson their too - know when to bank your profits.

AGY aren't terribly good at tooting their own horn, e.g. like ORPH - they get on with the job and when you examine the company you really do get an idea of what a quality operation this is. It has been overlooked, for sure, but these things don't last forever and yes a rerating will come maybe on the back of trial results.

the only other I was looking at was ORPH, but that's already had a pretty good run this year.

Like many, or just about all of you, this was not the RNS I expected, for all the reasons many of you have expressed already.

My faith in CB has been dented but I am willing to wait to see what unfolds in the next few months which will hopefully shed some light on why this course was taken.

There's very little else to say right now until we have more information - though I completely understand the venting.

Very good summary on state of play in company. Note slide 12 we should get results from VLP Peanut in vitro human cell trail by end of June. I expect this will be the next major announcement, unless you know who takes out another loan against his stock.

https://www.allergytherapeutics.com/media/1314/atl-wainwright-presentation-2021.pdf

Zak Mir tips them to go to 32p, of course they could easily go a lot higher depending on trial results:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/306955/allergy-therapeutics-shares-tipped-to-rise-to-32p-6955.html

@Highveld - many thanks for that insightful post.

Wow, you guys are tough! lol

You should try investing in the junior Biotech segment - you're lucky if you get two RNS's a year.

True,

Tongue in cheek - people piling in for the dividend. Once it goes exDiv tonight it'll collapse tomorrow.....

Indeed there's a lot going for AGY and this year there's the potential for a number of exciting announcements.

ON the trading front - the bid / offer can be sensitive to the slightest trading activity at times but the price seems to have found a pretty solid floor around 20p it it has been hit by several 50k chinks without moving, so current sensitivity is on the offer. When it's like this to get trade you generally have to hit the offer, with the hope that is might trade better, to get done.

There does seem to be upward bias at the moment, though you never know...
Goodluck & welcome.

@dvharrison - I understand the impatience - I'm just used to these things taking time and they can be very sensitive and egos get involved so it's usually best to say nothing until you've signed on the dotted line. And things generally take a little longer at the moment because of COVID.
It's difficult for CEOs because obviously PIs want a constant stream of info when they're excited about prospects but there is no communications department here - I'd rather the guy got on with generating value than feeding a PR machine.
It'll come...

Certainly, interesting times ahead:

Bullish points:
- hedging at $1495 not reinstated for 2021 and with current Gold price at $1738 approx there's an immediate material uplift to revenue;
- increased exploration, at a level of $18m probability of another find increased;
- possibility new finds outside Tanzania, reducing country risk;
- Tanzanian new government - seen as a stabilising, encouraging foreign investment or at least a friendlier environment;
- indication that the VAT situation may be resolved
- payment of first dividends places the company on the radar of more investors.

Bearish indicators:
- big spend on exploration could result in no finds;
- Political situation in Tanzania - reforms may not find domestic support and things could deteriorate
- no guaranteed margin, hedge now removed we have naked exposure to gold price
- a rising gold price could result in domestic discomfort at exploitation of foreign entity of a national natural resource
- now we've started paying a dividend it needs to be maintained to establish reliable history for new set of investors - we now have a new outflow of funds from a small company still in development.

On balance I'm happy to remain long and perhaps even average up on further developments

I understand and don't understand the impatience here.

Okay, yes, we'd all love to have news on a daily basis from the company - but honestly what real company do you know that does this. I'm not used to CEOs directly replying to retail investor emails on a regular basis and if they are doing that then I suspect their motives - hype hype hype.

It's clear that labs are very busy in Australia right now and I suspect there's a backlog for many companies. ON the other hand we have our own lab which CB has stated, correctly, that he will not publish the results from. With that and the fact that our own lab is likely flat out returning results within days I expect the guys are very busy analysing and determining best next location for drilling.

I suspect given the chunks of volume that warrant holders maybe taking some shares off the table reducing their risk to next to nothing while maintaining their upside. This of course is making nervous investors more nervous and coupled with their need for news is triggering 'some' sales. But anyone investing in this sector, thinking all news will be good had better wake up quickly and prepare for a ride or liquidate as this share may not be for you. it could also be that people see better short term returns elsewhere in the market.

Remind yourselves:
- fully funded for all activity to 2023;
- own lab ensuring rapid turnaround of drilling analysis, honing future drills to give best results;
- own drilling rig;
- drilling 365 dpa;
- tight budgets;
- existing gold finds;
- awaiting licence application results;
- jv discussions ongoing - but we're not giving away anything, we can drill on and drive a better agreement, so be prepared for no immediate news.

I'm sure others can add to the list.

Apologies meant to address to JTBear

Hi Jthammer
So yes like Ecr I listened and observed the CEO at CEY and I really like the way he spoke about the business and the amount of work he had to do, no glitz and nudge nudge wink wink type nonsense. A bit like CB.
What attracts me then more than anything is when the directors buy at the beginning of a tough period. As at CEY.
I'm an ex oil derivatives trader so technicals are part of the whole play for me but I never ignore the fundamentals.