Member Info for PaulFG

Like all of us I'm sure I'm constantly looking at new opportunities and apart from the the usual upbeat narratives all companies have, I generally go straight to the financial statements to examine:
> operating & admin costs;
> cash balances; and
> debt.

I'm constantly astounded by the number of companies that seem to burning through cash with really high admin costs and when you look at their cash at bank number it's around £500k, I mean they won't even last the year. That's generally when I move on.

I know we all have varying feelings about the Placement (I'm kind of over it now and have been doubling my holding at these levels) but I do take a great deal of comfort knowing the cash balance we have.

I'm not ignoring all the valid opinions of other shareholders but I sleep better knowing we have those funds to continue operations and ramp them up.

Good spot AG1989, nice to hear everyone in the podcast is a holder, lol

I understand that some producers are now starting to hold back production from the market, thus adding to the squeeze.

Does anyone know if FRES has a similar policy?

@legalwolf wrt licence requirements and committed activities + related expenditures thereon I would sincerely hope that CB would have already factored in all of this and so when he as recently as early march reiterated his fully-funded stance that this was already in his calculations - he is a CFO after all.

that being the case I am going to assume the placing is required for, as stated in the RNS, to ramp up activities.

I agree @JTB that's the feeling I have too. Its just as if and when he does scale up to maintain the quality of operation and of people comparable to what we have now. if they can survive as an independent once they actually strike, develop and become a producer - given the level of M&A that goes on in this sector.

@1Calypso smtms u just gotta go with your gut and that proved a better decision today. Well done

you guys!

You're analysis is rapidly approaching the detailed examination of CB's intonations and facial ticks.

well done.

I'm still waiting - that down trend is still in place and silver continues to trade sideways. If we put in a double bottom around 857p then that may give a bullish signal. Otherwise we fall back into the 600 - 800p historic consolidation range that's previously provided support before another bull run.

if there is one thing that 2020 should have taught is is not to use statements like 'from now on' wrt dividends.

I agree, BenAlder, the noises from Tanzania are significantly reducing the country risk for me, as is SHGs exploration in elsewhere. SO I too have topped up this morning.

I think we're both in reasonable agreement here, though I'm a little more concerned about how much of their production they may have capped at $50 - just knowing how Banks sell these things. I used to do this for an Oil Major and I saw many corporates, without professional price management teams, been taken down the garden path by the banks.

However, I do like FRES, they know what they're doing (in their business anyway), been doing it a long time and so I'm looking for an entry point here, so many things on the horizon:
> potential squeeze on silver;
> after the current general stock market melt-up is there likely to be an 80% market sell off that'll just bring everything (incld FRES) down with it (at least temporarily)
> is the silver:gold ratio going to tighten?
> covid and vaccine rollout in Mex?

the good thing is there is usually a lag between the underlying commodity market move and the SP of the miners, though once they move they tend mover higher - the chart for FRES vs Silver demonstrates that nicely.

SO maybe, he said hopefully, there's still time.

Sorry I'm not disagreeing with you. Predictive text chose rubbish I meant to type bullish. I too am bullish the silver narrative.
Which is why I was concerned about the number of calls they sold.

Yes i'm on ex derivatives trader so I'm familiar with the structure, thanks.

So here's the thing, if you buy in to the silver rubbish narrative it could go well above the $50, though I don't know how long for it could happen this year.

My question is: how many calls did they sell at $50 to finance that put? if it was 1:1 then ok we're only exposed to 7% on the call. But if it was 2:1, 3:1 or 4:1 there is substantially more risk. If you're bullish silver.

For me the risk was more on the call side rather than the put.

April 22nd exdiv date. So you have to buy by cob April 21 to participate.

Gave up on my Barber too, too cold to queue!

Yes I decided to add silver to my portfolio too and chose FRES as the vehicle. As has been pointed out there is a large spread between FRES SP and price of SIlver currently and you can see from the chart that it has sung the other way for periods too. But I can't get the current bear trend of the SP out of my mind.

Could be wrong ofc, wouldn't be first time. I think it goes exDiv next week so depending where we end up exDvi date there's a 17p downside risk, could it rally into the dividend date? But could it equally come off much more after exDiv.

DO any of the long term holders have any insights in the history of the SP around dividend dates?

not sure I'm reading this the same way as you @djwallis - it doesn't say granted it says it's in application stage.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Definitely in a bearish trend right now, lower highs and lows as you can see.

I definitely want to buy into the Silver narrative, though chart-wise silver tells you nothing really it continues a sideways movement. Fundamentally, perhaps a different story with things like mints out of stock, today Singapore opens new vault expecting 15k tons.

Though a lot of analysis I read around FRES suggest they're currently valued over fair value - though I'm not sure if these are up to date given last results.

Perhaps political situation in Mexico is weighing on SP - but FRES has been operating here for over 100years which should provide comfort.

No doubt shares have a downward bias currently, so I'll bide my time to see if I can buy much closer to £8, or at least revisit if it gets there.

Judging from the activity of a number of members over the weekend (honestly guys get out and go for a walk) I think some heads might actually explode with conspiracy theories if StockBox aren't able to publish tonight. haha

Mine Development - one of the reasons I bought in and backed CB was the fact that he has done exactly this before. As @JTB has stated and I also concluded before buying, GGP gave away far too much to Newcrest to do this. If you listen to CB I don't believe he will give up this huge value to a JV if the price isn't good enough.

I know it's difficult to say trust the guy right now as many of you seem to have an almost demented focus on the placing (fact is that's the sector you're in) but right now I still back the CEO and his experience.

If you do not, ask yourself why are you still here?