Member Info for pauldrayton

Interesting debate. As I’m clueless about hydrogen can you please explain why it wouldn’t come from electrolysis of water rather than oil & gas?

A bit perkier today

Heard from a friend who has contacted Camarco that questions submitted by shareholders for the AGM will be posted and answered on the website.

So keep your eyes peeled.

This is by far the longest we have gone without an update in the case now. The original hearing on liability, jurisdiction & quantum was 16 months ago, the decision on jurisdiction was made 12 months ago, the hearing on post-hearing briefs was 8 months ago and the final submissions were made 7 months ago.

Even factoring in a Coronavirus delay this does seem to be dragging on now, particularly as the ICSID have stated that they are working remotely without disruption. I wonder what’s going on.

So the AGM is tomorrow - has anybody submitted any questions? And if so have they had a reply from Camarco? Any idea of whether/how the answers to questions will be published?

Yes I think so. It’s a big bonus for Canadian oil if it gets done.

cbc.ca/amp/1.5629584

The biggest problem has been being shackled to PMO who wanted/needed to sort out their balance sheet before sanctioning Sea Lion, and the timeframe has always been in their hands. In a funny kind of way, now that they have put years of work into it and a shedload of cash, I think it might actually be a positive. We need to see a stronger oil price of course but PMO now view the Falklands as a large part of their medium/long-term future.

Sadly I think after 10 long years we were right on the cusp. PMO refinancing, Zama sale, Navitas farmout - everything was falling into place. Coronavirus was cruel timing for Rockhopper but it’s encouraging that all parties are still committed to it and the FIG is too. I think Sea Lion will go ahead but we will need a stronger oil price and economic environment first. Maybe I’m naive or mad, but I live in hope!

harel, I understand the Dolphin contract remains live, but obviously only if they can get the funding to drill. The deal did not lapse on 1st June - it was a bit of an arbitrary deadline really but obviously they would need to secure a farm out very soon if they are going to drill this year.

We will see. No doubt Covid has put things on hold for now, and it will depend on the global economy, oil prices and the virus outlook. In the meantime hopefully the FIG (who are keen for Sea Lion to go ahead) will help, and a positive Ombrina Mare outcome would put Rockhopper in a much stronger position.

I’m not reading much into the 10% rise on Friday because it was only the UT trade for 16k shares.

Thanks fecm. From what I can understand, RKH & their lawyers were originally expecting an outcome in Q1 but it was always flexible & in the tribunal’s hands. They were hopeful that it would be in Q2 when they released their “coming months” statement in April, although again the exact timing is out of their hands. I doubt that the latest Edison report has any more up-to-date info but I could be wrong. The most important thing for me is that the outcome is positive, rather than when it arrives, but it would be nice to know either way soon - it’s been a long wait and it makes a big difference to RKH’s immediate value & their future.

Isn’t that comment about “coming months” just lifted from Rockhopper’s April update?

I think harel should snap up a few million Toscana shares to secure the vote.

I would ignore any commentary at the moment and make a judgement when all the details are known in a few months.

The Toscana General Meeting isn’t until the end of Q3 so relisting will be Q4 at the earliest.

I don’t think any of us can predict share prices or market caps at the moment based on the available info. We don’t have all the info about the potential new assets and how they will be funded, or what the OGA ruling on Serenity will be and whether they can secure a farm out. So many variables, I think the best thing is to appraise in a few months once the picture is clearer.

It would be great if they could secure a farm out and drill Serenity & Liberator before readmission. Save us from all the inside info shenanigans.

They are unlikely to RNS a contract of that size. At a 1-2% margin it’s worth £200-400k. Worth having but probably not worth an RNS on its own.

Does it matter? A few disgruntled private investors were never going to make much of a dent.