Member Info for pauldrayton

For what it’s worth, I contacted ICSID (not about the Rockhopper case in particular, but about their arbitration cases in general), and they said that they are currently fully operational from remote workstations and are currently conducting a lot more virtual hearings.

Just thought I’d pass it on - no idea when the Ombrina Mare case will be finalised but at least they are still working despite coronavirus.

I think the point is less about the no win, no fee scenario (that’s probably an acceptable risk), but would a legal team take on a case on that basis if the chances of getting their fee even if they won was slim? Would King & Spalding really waste their time on that basis?

I asked RKH about enforcement some time ago. They were confident it wouldn’t be an issue (although maybe they would say that) and pointed out that the lawyers would not be working on a no win, no fee basis if they were doubtful about the chances of receiving the award.

Now the question is, what have the panel decided and if it’s in Rockhopper’s favour, how big or small is the award?

I realise things may have been delayed due to Coronavirus but you’d think the outcome should be known soon if they were expecting an outcome in Q1. Who knows!

Thanks Mogger.

Mogger, I know you’ve been following the Ombrina Mare case closely and you were one of the few people not necessarily expecting an outcome in Q1.

Do you have a timescale in which you do expect it and is RKH’s April statement of “in the next few months” realistic (even if it’s a bit vague!).

Thanks

Yes now talk of 800k cut but that’s not enough I don’t think. Market is now expecting at least 1million. Anything less will get sold off imo.

They have been meeting today too - the meetings are over 3 days.

Russia seem to be wanting to keep the status quo whilst Saudi want to cut. Not sure if this is a big division or just tactical but it will weigh on oil prices.

I would like to see Navitas signed up because I think that would be a positive sign re UKEF too - they wouldn’t continue if they didn’t think they could finance it between them. May not be a huge update tomorrow from PMO but it would be nice to see some signs that they’re heading in the right direction.

, the United Kingdom remains committed to defending the rights of the people of the Falkland Islands to determine their own political, social and economic future. This includes unequivocal support for the right of the Falkland Islanders to develop their natural resources for their own economic benefit. Hydrocarbon exploration in the Falkland Islands is a legitimate commercial venture regulated by the legislation of the Falkland Islands Government, in strict accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Argentine domestic law does not apply to the Falkland Islands.

https://en.mercopress.com/2020/03/04/uk-message-to-un-falklands-people-must-participate-in-any-discussions-on-their-future

Suspect we will get an update on Sea Lion this Thursday when PMO release their results.

Both PMO & RKH reiterated recently that the breakeven price is $40 and it’s unlikely they are going to consider the current oil price in the midst of a global pandemic & economic hit as the likely price in 4 years.

Whilst it would have been nice to enter this period without the Coronavirus hanging over the markets, let’s see what the official updates say as and when they arrive.

Mogger I also noticed the Edison report yesterday so I emailed Investor Relations. They are standing by an outcome in Q1 and said the market would be updated via RNS if there was any change to that.

Although I suspect it’s all down to ICSID.

Nigoil do you think the OM case is settled then?

I hope if it’s a positive outcome that it doesn’t get delayed by 60 days because we really need some good news soon in amongst the Coronavirus doom & gloom.

Any word on why we didn’t hear about OM within the 120 days?

I definitely need a beer. I am thoroughly depressed!

Abu Sennan sale completion RNS should be released at 7am.

The DOW has tanked 1200 points though so looks like another rough day and RKH will need more than just that.

Do we know yet whether warmer weather will help? The cold & flu viruses normally peak in February then peter out over March & April.

Nigoil how reliable is the 150m swallows rumour?!

Mogger, doesn’t it state that merit will be dealt with as part of the award?

“The Tribunal will address separately in its Award the remaining jurisdictional and/or merits issues in this case”

I'm confused Mogger.

"Once the presentation of the case is completed, the proceeding is declared closed and the award must be signed in the next 120 days, with the possibility of an extension of 60 days (Arbitration Rule 38 and 46)".

Was the presentation of the case not complete on 30th October 2019, and therefore an award must be signed in the next 120 days (by 28th February) with the possibility of an extension of 60 days (to 28th April)?

In other words if there is no extension, doesn't the award have to be signed by this Friday?