Member Info for Paul2566

Initially I was frustrated that GSK appeared to be so behind the curve with a response to covid. It would appear now that the tortoise knew what it was doing.

Spooky you mention MNG. I bought 6305 shares last week(13th). Unfortunately I paid £1.9433 including taxes etc., so higher than you suggested. As I think I've mentioned before I already hold LGEN and AV. I hold RIO also for the dividend, and though they may suffer a little short term I think like GLO, they are a solid long term hold.

I personally don't view DLG as a capital growth stock, but I think a fair trading value would be £3 +/-3%.
I can't say I'm happy, but I'm more than willing to hold just for the dividend as long as the annual drop in SP does not wipe out the dividend gains entirely.
I just can't fathom why this is held so low.

This got me thinking about evolution, which in essence is what mutation is about.
Species in general have in my view two basic rules, survive and reproduce. Evolution simply increases the efficiency of a species to meet those objectives.
If a virus evolves to a point where it is both deadly and efficient, it would in effect kill itself by eliminating its host population entirely. Of course the other view is that nature would not allow that to happen because it contradicts the basic rules.
Expanding this thinking further, one could argue that such events have been designed by nature to check our population and reduce our negative impact on the world, simply because we have evolved to a point where we are in breach of the basic rules, and in risk of killing off our host.

I have no real understanding of how a virus works, however I think that when it replicates there are sometimes errors in its code, which sometimes will lead to a mutation.
If this is correct, it would seem to follow that when more people are infected the opportunity to replicate, and therefore the chance of an error and mutation increases.
If I am right then this is the real threat of Omicron, a greater chance of a mutation into something that is worse than anything seen before.
I'm hoping my thinking is totally wrong and someone here will put me right.

Good news endorsed by todays RNS.
Sotrovimab approved in EU, with conditional marketing authorisation in Great Britain, provisional marketing authorisation in Australia, and conditional marketing authorisation in Saudi Arabia. It has also been approved via Japan's Special Approval for Emergency Pathway. Temporary authorisations for sotrovimab have been granted in 12 other countries.
Looking very good.

Probably, since nothing yet known to change the trend.
If India does not pan out expect another -10%.
The next set of company results will most likly be make or break.
There needs to be something tangible before the institutional investors get interested, and until they do there is little chance of any meaningful upwards movement.
I don't think good 'news' is going to cut it anymore.
I don't think anything relating to covid will help to be honest, that ship looks to have sailed.
I'm just tucking this away and over the next couple of years it will either have failed or not. I've written off the money invested in it so not worth worrying about. It may surprise me yet.

A) Because they expect further falls.

I think there are exciting times ahead. If BP can pull of the transition to electric while retaining profitable oil production they could find themselves in a much stronger position. I appreciate its a big if, but they should have the financial muscle to do it. Oil is still going to be in demand for decades to come and that should give them a good base.
Service stations will change and will urther revenue streams. Travellers while charging will be spending more while they wait. There are many possibilities.
Oil production will I believe be scaled back as demand will fall, however its also likely that the barrel price will rise considerably with most of the smaller competition disappearing.
As for £4 by xmas, I seriously doubt it, but £3.50 within the first half of 2022, maybe.

No its not gambling, gambling is a pure game of chance, investment is (or should be) an assessment of risk balanced on rewards reasonably assumed from company reports, current affairs etc.
I appreciate that many if not most private investors do little real research which takes many hours, and base their investment decisions on boards like this and the nonsense (for the most part) written on sites like The motley Fool.
Both of the latter can prompt thinking and further research buy investing based on those types of 'information' alone would I agree be gambling.

SFH300
No mention of increase to dividend, although I agree it remains a possibility.

It would appear the low was 2p, the other was some sort of error or dummy buy.

I see today the the share buyback scheme has been extended to £1 billion.
They are clearly generating a lot of excess cash.
My questions are:
Does this represent the most efficient use of these funds and provide the most benefit to AV.
Is this a good way to reward share holders.

My personal view is that short term, probably not, but long term maybe?

1.8939p bottom today

2p

robleo
No I'm sorry, I just re-read my post and it reads like I'm calling you out a little, I wasn't. I just like to read any sensible musings, whether positive or negative. It allows me to research ideas I may have overlooked.
I agree it may go lower, but I've tried to time the market before, and more often than not get it wrong one way or the other. Unless its obviously going to drop, I now tend to start a position at what I think is fair value.
When topping up I do however still try to time the market to some degree, but since these investment values tend to be lower, it has less of an impact if I get it wrong.
I'm sounding like some sort of mover and shaker, I absolutly not, opened a position in MNG with £12252, any top up are likely to be around £1k. I will try and buy the dips, although as stated that doesn't always go to plan.

bilboburgler
Thank you for your response and explaining your thinking, it is much appreciated.
Its good to get other investor views, and you have certainly given me food for thought, I will look at this in more detail.

robleo
I think I have a similar strategy. I have in the past tried my hand at short term trading, but for me it starts to feel more like gambling than investing, and I don't think its for me.

I think we have been here before, 2014. It is not good that tensions are riseing, but if it really goes sideways I think the BP. SP will be the least of our worries.

As for BP being bought, with a MCap of £68.8 billion it would take some deep pockets, and why would they wish to sell.