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These Investor Meets have never ended well in the past in so far as the SP is concerned. Given the current position I'm definitely living in hope about this one and that AS can buck his previous trend! Will he make any reference to his "value inflexion point" or whatever it was he said from the one last year................
Nicepair - imho the best thing to try to do is time the next repeat cycle to your own benefit. Buy when this drops to low/mid 40s which I think it will and sell into the rise when prospective "news" gets flogged around again over the next few months.
Touk - it’s more the unexpected than the expected. The “news” is probably just as manipulated as everything else on AIM. Those “ in the know” who buy in on this raise will most likely already know what news is in the pipeline so that they can be assured of a profitable exit in the near future. I give you HE1 as a perfect example!
D-Gee - if the same thing happens here I'll be tempted to buy in - but it's a massive gamble and the old adage good money after bad etc. In many ways, you're really just trying to bet on the manipulation of the sp rather than the prospects of the company unfortunately that's how it works!
Touk - that's not necessarily true. If you look at HE1 as a very recent and similar example - share price crashed over a period of time, raise at a very low price, similar reaction/sentiment to that raise as we're seeing on here now. And then within weeks and out of the blue it multi-bags from the raise price. Those that either bought in shortly after the raise or were part of it end up quids in. The same could easily happen here.
Wyndrum - just something for others to consider on here when reading your posts. Particularly given that you don't attach any value to any positive comments made by AS in interviews/updates and that you readily dismiss any talk of other interested parties and/or anything transformational. Here's a comment you made on the HE1 board recently about one of their updates:-
"I liked the "we are reaching out" to other interested parties comment.
Got to be a JV, hasn't it?
(I liked the Potential transformational SP, too) :0) ".
Hmmmm so you're clearly not agenda driven at all then. Do you see the inconsistencies??!!
Gje - that’s quite easy to answer. The likes of Thorn and Wyndrum along with all of the others who posted yesterday talk the share down until it reaches a level where they buy back in. Then their comments become more neutral and very subtly encouraging in an effort to recover the sp. Look back at their posting history. The mugs who sold up yesterday and no doubt lost money deserve to imho. The old adage about the transfer of money from the impatient can be seen here on a repeat cycle!
Timster - I agree with what you say to an extent. But it doesn’t address the potential issue of dilution. That can’t be ignored as a concern for current shareholders but obviously not one for employees of the company.
There seems to be a lot of wild suggestions going on about why this guy is payroll rather than remaining g freelance. Unfortunately it’s likely to be the much more banal reason that IR35 requires anyone holding a statutory post to be on the payroll.
Wyndrum - this latest comment of yours is truly pathetic. I’ve taken note of one or two of your comments in the past but this smacks of complete desperation. Your desire to cast a negative slant on anything is quite frankly irrational.
It's like groundhog day with this share. It moves up in anticipation of each and every presentation day/supposed inflection point and the bb is full of the "watch the sp fly now/this is the moment for us" type comments. Then AS opens his mouth on the day and the sp tanks. On the day in question there's various posters who defend the presentation and blame the mm etc etc for the drop as the day progresses. By the next day they seemingly vanish and vacate the space to be taken over by those who deride the company and change the tack to "one for the bottom drawer/jam tomorrow" type narrative. It's actually a trader's dream and I'm sure that this whole cycle will get repeated yet again over the next six months. I often wonder whether the same people rampers and derampers are actually all the same people just under different user names, such is the apparent coordination of the exchanges!
I’d say that as we approach the update day/release of information, some PIs will be seeing this as a binary moment, a sh*t or bust moment, which it isn’t necessarily at all. But with that in mind, there will be plenty who have a last minute panic and sell up just in case the news isn’t as good as expected. For no rational reason other than fear unfortunately.
Ginge - I agree entirely about the nonsense posted. You've got to wonder why the usual suspects - Wyndrum and co - post relentlessly every day when there is actually nothing substantial to post about. Well you don't really have to wonder as their ploy is obvious.
Viking said "Whats to stop a steady daily drip down to who nows where, its just a constant disappointment no sign on the development of diagnostic LFTs."
What an inane comment. How can all of the recent positive news be seen by anyone as a disappointment?! It amazes me across various LSE boards and especially this one how armchair chief execs (Wyndrum as a perfect example) say that the company should do this and should do that. When the most that they've probably run in their lives is a bath! And regarding drift in the SP, so what. It seems to me that way too many people must be happy to lose money on a quick punt when instant profit doesn't arise and then sell up again. More the fool them. But that is the only reason for SP drift. The company can't and shouldn't be expected to relentlessly churn out news simply to keep the fickle interested.
Star Bright said-
"How - in practice - do proper II’s buy shares in companies that are new names in their portfolios? Here’s a brief illustration of the typical steps involved:
- Idea generation (perhaps prompted by an event like SD)
- Validation (“Is this one of the ideas we want to pursue?”)
- Due diligence (what needs to be verified & how - this could take time)
- Articulation of investment thesis (formal/written for some pm’s)
- Stress-testing of investment thesis (“Are you sure about XXX?”)
- Determination of initial position size (“Let’s start with 2% of the portfolio”)
- Discussion with equity dealers (internal colleagues but segregated reporting line etc. from pm’s) regarding liquidity, market dynamics etc
- Trade modelling / market impact assessment (by equity dealers, “Will we move the price?”)
- Determination of desired entry price range, acquisition timescale and funding availability
- Internal order placed on dealers blotter
- Confirmation that no compliance blocks (eg a colleague is an insider) exist
- Dealers start working orders with market counterparties, aiming to build the desired position in the desired timescale within x% of VWAP or similar
- Ongoing liaison between dealers and pm’s regarding market impact, price target and timescales
- Confirmation of completion of position build and post-acquisition review (formal for some pm’s, less so for others)
Some of this can be compressed to a degree - for example if your equity dealer is made aware of a sizeable line of available stock - but the intent is to buy quietly off the radar, not leaving footprints in the market".
thank you for this piece which I've only just read today as it's very insightful. I think for anyone on here wanting to understand how the sp is going to shift significantly to our advantage then this is key information (aside from the fundamentals of the tech itself).