Member Info for papucel

The only thing to consider is that if the PE will pay "the fair value" that it will be nothing in for them nor for their clients.

The one Mill question would b not what the fair value is but what it is worth for the PE and how much they are prepared to pay for it IMO

so far they made over 100,000 Mill intimidating people
https://mail.shorteurope.com/history_company.php?selskapsnavn=AVON%20RUBBER%20P.L.C&land=united_kingdom

When any of you sell you actually give those rats your money betting you would panick

Falk please link to Massimo Stabilini, statement

more info the list of shorter and their closed positions
https://mail.shorteurope.com/history_company.php?selskapsnavn=Wm%20Morrison%20Supermarkets%20Plc&land=united_kingdom

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/private-equity-faces-off-hedge-084759075.html

Boyobach thanks a lot

Generally I am good to take decisions, but I have several batches and I got in mental freeze: I can't get myself together to buy more on the drops neither to sell any.

Tx again

Falk please quantify "as the deadline approaches" :) do you mean 17 July of another offer or the date of the acquisition after the competition authority ruling? :)

@ Masterbaker Thanks a lot
I did the simulation below with only one set of 0.15 and on my holding at the current dropped price -2.6% I am actually worse off from -8.5% to -9.4% what kind of "return to investors" is it?

@meshtrader Please help me to get my head around my original note; how do you see an Amazon intervention if any?

"A hint of a second bidder will take this to the 3 mark in no time." I fully agree with the statement, who do you think it may be?
tx

Boyobach

1. I wold not compare RDS with Chevron size wise just as pattern as I have part om my portfolio in US and it is mad money, all the ratios are 15-20% up on like by like performance IMO
2. Please explain the "resistance point" calculation as indeed I see it up to that point then down. I am on investing.com with dozens of KPI's, where should I look to see yours?
3. As I recall mid may it broke to 1503 and I assumed it will go north.... bad assumption :( why do you think that even if it broke through the resistance point it didn't move up?

tx

johnpwh I went though a whole crisis with AZN during the pandemic the SP was dragged down by shortens from 82 to 68 even that the vaccine had nothing to do with the AZN P&L.

It was debilitating for al of us fortunately on the AZB board was a lot of support through constant analysis, watch of any news and we went through well now on 82. All the drop had absolutely nothing to do with AZN day to day performance nor with its profit.

I am afraid that unless the management won't come with a "good news" it won't be any significant move. It depends of how much you believe in the business model and one risk appetite. I am down 9% as well :(

Thanks everyone for the explanations, as I read the document several times and I couldn't see any significant benefit so I thought I missed something.

I thought that MRO reached the bottom when I bought at 1.89, yet it fell another 9% and now looks as falling further. The confusion came from the paragraph
"Shareholders will receive one B2 Share, with a nominal value of 15 pence, for every ordinary share held on the record date for entitlement to B2 Shares"

1. Should I understand if one has 145 shares than the payment would be actually 290*0.15=43.5?
2. When the conversion is made 10/9 what about if it is not multiple division like 145/10= 14.5 shares *9 = 130.5 What would it happen with half share would it be rounded up or down?

Please let me know your thoughts

IMO the situation is not as simple as it looks as a lot of MRW value is trapped into property value rather than in operation return . The current VC offeror is looking to a 20%+ return pa in the next 3 years for its clients. This can not be acheved from the current MRW operations but only from a asset strip.

So while we, the MRW management and Labour's opportunistic view is looking for a "fair business value" which it may be 40% above the MRW unstressed price, this will not be a business case for the VC so they may not raise it with more than 5-6% as it is nothing left in for them.

Equally it may be a dilemma from amazon from the opposite angle, too much trapped value in properties and too weak operations to justify a 300 SP UNLESS they find a synergy with Wole Foods. This is how Whole Foods look after was taken by Amazon - the question is what did they learned, was the take over ducessful from their perspective as only the answers to these questions may answer if Amazon will make an offer
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevebanker/2019/06/25/how-amazon-changed-whole-foods/

If amazon experience with Wholefoods was not what they expected than they may not make a contra offer

Any thoughts?

Thanks Evadav

So, Falk :) 50-50% prediction :) so far we are on normal distributed curve of flipping the coin :) I have to admit I would have been wrong as well as I was expecting 288

Lets see tomorrow if your or anyone else's prediction will beat the odds :)

Anyone's guess?

Best,

Would you please explain: " disappointed by what is effectively a neutral special dividend and related share consolidation.". I read the txt in the RSN and I don't fully get the mechanism

so if one has f ex 100 shares what will happen in Aug?

Falk indeed the trend starting yesterday from 15 min before closing from the last orders there were few at 228, but the most 235

I wander what would be the SP down impact if any due to a temporary/ Questions from a political intervention from the Business Committee as they tabled a debate and from the Labour PR impact to politicise the transaction ...

any thoughts?

ha ha ha ha so you seems to have an opinion about everyone that you are smarter than them not only about Falk

I was showing you the closing down trend which you seemed to indicate a slight temporary dip. Please refrain today to clutter the board and let other people to make their points as well.

look below
tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2021-06-21T17:28:21.000 GBX 235 142,246 334,184 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T17:28:21.067 GBX 235 154,308 362,823 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:35:29.000 GBX 240 40,457 97,178 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:32:13.000 GBX 238 41,521 98,962 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:46:11.787 GBX 240 24,984 60,018 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:28:34.000 GBX 235 3,877 9,104 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:31:40.000 GBX 239 108,664 259,772 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:28:24.000 GBX 228 50,000 114,107 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:28:16.123 GBX 235 258,065 606,879 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:28:16.130 GBX 235 141,935 333,781 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:28:16.023 GBX 235 258,065 606,879 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:28:16.033 GBX 235 141,935 333,781 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:27:10.897 GBX 235 281,561 661,021 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:27:10.857 GBX 237 110,777 262,679 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:27:10.863 GBX 235 258,065 606,879 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:27:10.877 GBX 235 141,935 333,781 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:27:10.843 GBX 237 201,422 477,620 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:27:10.707 GBX 233 10,004 23,312 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:27:10.837 GBX 233 5,503 12,823 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:27:10.723 GBX 235 154,858 363,560 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:24:10.923 GBX 235 11,996 28,183 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:23:09.117 GBX 235 1,910 4,495 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:05:24.000 GBX 239 58,519 139,884 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:13:00.677 GBX 235 90 212 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:07:25.343 GBX 237 30,803 73,136 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2021-06-21T16:07:11.487 GBX 228 2,834 6,468 Off-Book XLON PRIC P XLON
2021-06-21T16:07:04.040 GBX 228 5,888 13,437 Off-Book XLON PRIC P XLON
2021-06-21T16:06:49.967 GBX 228 5,717 13,047 Off-Book XLON PRIC P XLON
2021-06-21T16:06:39.967 GBX 228 3,059 6,981 Off-Book XLON PRIC P XLON
2021-06-21T16:06:28.377 GBX 228 32,502 74,174 Off-Book XLON PRIC P XLON
2021-06-21T15:43:59.593 GBX 240 1,000,000 2,403,190 Off-Book XLON PRIC P XLON

sterowlands challenge question for you :) would it go straight as today or would have deep ? I am in two minds if to expect a deep and maybe buy more as today it was almost no deviation like a price fixing cartel :) :)