Member Info for papucel

HappyInvestor100

Look to my posts a couple of months back, I even reported TR64 to LSE as he was cluttering both AZN and GSK on both boards.

Thanks God that I trusted my judgement to buy more of them and ignored his madness

this is the reason FED re 2 expected rate raises with high risk of small business default

https://www.wsj.com/articles/risks-rise-to-both-the-feds-inflation-and-employment-goals-11623772630

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2021/jun/16/uk-inflation-rises-prices-fuel-clothing-ftse-stock-market-federal-reserve-meeting-powell-business-live

but yes Cyber, you are right it won't affect MTRO directly - I meant that it will deter a buyer then I saw the other JPM news

WFDIK

This may have been planned few months ago, but the news clashed with the last 3 days banking drama
https://www.reuters.com/technology/jpmorgan-chase-buys-uk-robo-adviser-nutmeg-2021-06-17/

tx nidec

I saw the news I was wandering if it is enough. After I bought AVON I had a look to the CEO's profile and I couldn't get around about his interest in MOD and the milk association. I thought I bought the wrong Stock :) Isn't it a distraction to have such different product lines?

Does anyone know the % revenue from each line?

In the last 3 days it has been carnage on the US banks -11% in 3 days. I am in C but all of them dropped almost the same.

I am not sure even with the best MTRO news if there is or may be any banking appetite any time soon :(

Well..... I know I am new here not only that I have a dilemma but I have a stupid question as well

It makes me laugh every time to think that military equipment is done by a milkman. Doesn't this 2 segments hurt each other by the lack of story synergy? Shouldn't the management create a holding company with 2 different specialised companies which would allow an appropriate name and different market positioning?

Any thoughts?

Theo, I don't understand why throwing some ideas could be told of as song as it is not hard selling or cluttering the BB as it is done on other boards

"We used to have in particular a good Sunday session where we would throw some ideas around." it is a great idea should we reinstate it as it won't interfere with the METRO trading sessions.

Thanks for the links I am in RCDO

I entered as some of you at 28 and plummeted further to my surprise

I am in a dilemma if the top up now or it may be a further drop even below 2019 level as the PE ratio is huge 177

Had AVON ever been approached to be bought or would it be an acquisition target?

Any thoughts?

thanks DBarnet

Any thoughts why LM is stagnant and BAE moving north? This was the major mistake I did I assumed a light correlation between BAE and LM US but it seems to be none unless you see something

your favourite defence list BAE, QQ :)

You may want to look to AVON, very interesting proposition and 52% institutional investors. I followed it for several months as it was crazy valuation finally came down at a reasonable level. I entered a bit too early as it was a huge resistance at 28 but now it is on the right position 26.8

DYR

pappalazz Thanks Thanks Thanks !!!

Shanny80 I was in and out on QQ a couple of times I love it as well and never got it wrong. It is something I miss on BAE that I can't corelate well the news, fundamentals and hedge funds interest in BAE. I thought that the pension payments may be a deterrent. I wait to Friday then and back in QQ and BAE

Even LM US I got it right but BAE gets my head
THANKS AGAIN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I was heavily invested in BAE, but every expectation of SP movement was the opposite when I was expecting to raise it plummeted and when I was expecting it to drop it raised sharply. It got my head and I stupidly exited at 5.28

I know the consensus is about 6 so still way up. I do not trust my judgement at all with BAE, it seems the only SP which I got it wrong every single time... Any better judgement should I enter back now at 5.39 or wait a bit?

Any thoughts? Anything would be better than mine I promise not to hold you to what you say :) I just want to listen to another perspective

Thanks,
GLA

mydogsbestfriend,

Some times the price movements have nothing to do with the company at all it is just the major investors prefer to over cash to other companies in the hope that they will raise faster and then move the money back. In US they call it Rotation but actually it is just cash use speculation.

Theo,

I fully agree, I didn't call the 3 factors fundamentals, but distortions on top of the fundamentals which complicate the picture creating unexpected twists.

"You do realise that even the best so called "experts" get it wrong almost half the time " Of course I realise that therefore even the 5 analysts I generally check could all be all wrong at the same time; my note was to Big criticising Cudo's view on RDS exit at the lowest point when almost the HF dumped it as well.

Probably I may have expected too much from this board as on AZN when it dropped from 83 to 68 it was so active, so much knowledge sharing that I could go in and out 9 times in 3 months neutralising the loss and ending in profit. I couldn't have done it without the amazing posts people made on that board with ideas and info links from different perspectives.

From the robust discussions on other boards I managed to build dividend arbitration trading timeline and one of the guys challenged me to have a look to the LSE bear trading vs NYSE bull bias where the HF collusion has a lower impact due to the sheer cash available. I will be grateful for ever to that avatar who challenged me to make the analysis, as I diverted half of my holding on NYSE and never looked back.

I fully agree that it is a lot of scope, my fault is that I may have expected similar type of conversations from this board like when I asked for the last 3 years impairment KPI reporting which may have been the main reason to offload/ sell old debt while increase acquisition to change the mix. The answer was a conspiracy theory that I am Cudo and a string of sarcasms which didn't make me cleverer about what is MTRO's projected impairment rate and how much was achieved after disposal.

GLA

I do appreciate sarcasm in a wider context rather than the only de-facto.

Big,

Is your contribution here just sarcasm or actually have an educated guess? Everyone has to make their own minds re their risk appetite, however listening people's alternative views are extremely important as they may consider criteria's I may have missed.

I am not sure how much analysis you do, but you seem to miss 3 fundamental factors, the correlation with the US market cash inflow outflow on LSE which is much higher than I originally assumed and the fact that even the analysts the most of the time disagree about the SP directions. On the US stocks I have 5 different analysts I follow on each SP and they couldn't be more different in their views.

Third, we trade in a constant changing environment influenced on one side by the company fundamentals on the other of the cash flow movement "rotation" which I saw affecting even major SPs like GSK, AZN, BAE, EXP ca 20%-25%. What one may said a month ago may be invalid later given that Biden fundamentally changed the US energy strategy and the environmental groups started to take Large energy corporates to court; no one believed that RDS will loose the Dutch court case.

Maybe you have to start to look to the arguments behind an opinion at that point in time; sarcasm doesn't take us anywhere, out of your last 6 posts I couldn't make any sense of what you tried to achieve beyond ranting which has its own benefit if you feel better after.

My only worry is not that Dan may not succeed, but that the investors consider MTRO a cash/ value trap, meaning that it is not enough spike upside in a relatively short time. I did a test in the last few days with SSP which in spite having a worse financial position than MTRO it raised 8% in just 10 days because there s enough trading liquidity and volatility.

Since I started posting here, I downloaded all the MTRO transactions every single day and I can't see any operational news to take it beyond 10% up IMO.

As someone posted here, a major impact would be concept/ strategic redesign of the High street presence; if any ideas, write to Dan. Some 7 of us we wrote to EW on GSK, not that she read it, but her team may have redirected it to the right department.

I will definitely write to him to suggest a change the ratesetter front end as it is old fashioned, asking for personal details prior giving an indicative offer; this is considered a significant acquisition deterrent.

GLA

“Pap why do you to type like ex of mine from Romania?”
Ha ha ha Amazing observation skills so much better than Big who believed that I am Cuddo… I was born in RO left in ’88 moved to DK for a decade then to UK. None of my ex-s were interested in shares trading/ investing so I am definitely not her :)

“I was negative. it seems to be focused on loan origination rather than holding mortgages to maturity”
Changing the portfolio mix by offloading old loans with higher Impairment and acquiring new ones with lower risk is not necessarily a bad thing. Someone with longer MTRO experience may have picked up on their reported impairment KPI (I couldn’t find it) and if it is decreasing then they may have a chance to detoxify the portfolio.

arsenal58, thanks for the link

I use those downloads, but given that every sell has a buy order I don't know how to look if there is a large seller with a large disposal broken into small buyers picking up the pieces.

How would you trace a large disposal on that download?

Big, you flatter me again, thanks.

If they would ask me I would. I worked for ex Provident/ International Personal finance.

The company almost collapsed because the Board refused to do a proactive margin erosion to satisfy the regulatory compliance. They curt corners and tried to full the regulators making products cosmetic changes rather than real margin cut and upgrade the product billing engine. Look to them now they collapsed.

At least Dan made an attempt to reposition the products and CRM services. I pray to god that their legacy systems will cope with it without too much patching cost.

Product margin erosion & new CC are 2 good steps, I am not clear what they will do with the branch costs nor I could see significant digital transformation. For me the turning point would be their new marketing campaign if they could articulate a compelling customer proposition.

If not then I will dump all my holding at a loss.
:)

I never thought that my posts could create such a lively discussion, I am flattered.

@Theosus & Trunky thanks for explaining to bigsmoke what “market elasticity analysis" is. I couldn’t figure out if his confusion was sarcasm to my note or he didn’t actually new what it was, a standard modelling tool especially in turnaround situations.

@Theosus “I don't see that as a given at all” you are right there is no guarantee of success, but trying to reposition the products vs competition and create some sort competitive advantage is better than doing nothing.

@Cyberdoggy & bigsmoke, not sure what sort of similarities you see between my posts and Cud’s, he looks as having a Trading background looking to mostly technical factors, my posts are from a turnaround management perspective, totally different skills. Look to our investing portfolios they are very different.

Cuddo just snaps ideas, but I write in more detail and put smiley faces because I AM A WOMAN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! He is obviously not. I have red painted nails and I could tell you what I wear but I guarantee you that this is not going to take the SP to 1.7.

Everyone here seems to be pretty articulate so I don’t understand why so much energy is wasted on sarcasm rather that Product & Market analysis to see if Dan has the skills to turn it around or if we should dispose now and save our sanity.

I am interested in every educated guesses, to see if it is anything which I may not seen or taken into consideration so I could decide if I cut my loses and move on or stick for another few months.

I hope I put to rest the conspiracy theory that I am Cuddo
:)

All my common sense is assaulted; who could have made the below transaction and why?
09-Jun-21 14:30:00 110.70 7 Sell* 110.90 111.30 7.75 - the transaction cost is £7 ?
If he would have bought it even at 0.58 it would have been £4, so that person made a transaction of 7 shares on which lost £21. Why wouldn't let it be ?An they are quite few of them.

What is the logic of those people who sell below the transaction cost? Why?