Member Info for Paddyboy1

Not a great deal of info given out here really. I don't think the market is going to be happy with this. What is the cash position? give us some numbers. Not very impressed with this!

Strictly, yes i understand what you say there but that is how the normal buying process works. The point i'd like to clarify here in the PSN context is at what stage are you looking at exchange of contracts/completion etc? As far as i can see you can pay the 5% deposit ( no contract is involved until closer to the time the build is finished) so, the buyer can just pull out if the value of the property has fallen by more than the 5% deposit. The concern i have here now is that for the last 14 years or so there has been only upward price movements due to the low interest rate environment so i assume cancellations haven't caused an issue. Surely in the current climate this could cause a big headache for PSN??

OK so SP arguments aside Steve can you explain this process in the new build purchase. I've bought & sold a few houses over the years but not new builds. So am i right in this: I can buy a PSN house now priced at £300k but not due to be built until 2025 by paying £15k up front & nothing more then till 2025? So if come 2025 the house is only worth £275k i can say to PSN i don't want it now & that is it. Or if in 2025 the house has soared to £450k i have made £150k profit but only ever risked losing my £15k deposit? am i right or have i missed something here?

rxdav, you are clearly an angry investor. Noone forced you to press the buy button when you did. you were motivated by greed & FONO & will continue to watch your funds ebb away. Advice was there but you didn't listen. When the clever money starts to buy in here i would suggest maybe at that stage to average down to dilute your losses!

Please present an investment case rather than abusive ranting I understand that people are underwater for lots of cash here but castigating people for having opinions you don't share will not push the SP higher. Every bb should have a balance of views. These are not forums for emotional meltdowns. Only invest what you can afford to lose!

so put simply someone reserves a house now to be completed in 2025 & puts up 5% deposit. They can cancel anytime up to 2025 & simply lose the 5%. So from a PSN perspective those numbers are meaningless as loads will cancel due to the value of the property having fallen or their inability to secure a mortgage at higher interest rates!

Forward sales are not cash in the bank! Many will be cancelled!

I think some peeps here should look at Ferrexpo. FTSE company 33% divi! Fool's Gold!

The point which is being missed across the board i think is this. FORGET the numbers for the last few years. Forget the sales levels & forget the dividends paid! They are historic; the past; irrelevant; nada. Call it how you like but the markets are expecting none of these performances to be repeated anytime soon. That is why this share has fallen from £30 to £12 with further falls yet to come. There will be at the very least a slowdown in the housing market. Probably not a crash but some stagnation at least. Interest rate rises alone dictate that will happen as people will not be able to get mortgages now due to non affordability. This is reality for the foreseeable & when these conditions prevail no prudent CEO will sanction large dividend payments. If the broader market seriously thought there would be a 10% dividend yield next year the current SP here would be a lot higher!

Crossley, As it stands at the moment i would expect the dividend for next year to be 70p. This was the dividend for 2014 when the SP was around today's price. This would still represent a decent @7% yield which would still keep PSN among the top FTSE divi payers. It's a bizarre notion as was suggested on here that the dividend decision is based on surplus cash alone. The board decide what is in the best interests of the business going forward. In difficult & uncertain times they would be expected to retain surplus funds to maintain a strong balance sheets etc. Waiting until the results on 8th Nov is a wise decision. I'd expect the numbers to look healthy but what's more important is the forward statement from Finch. Once this is out along with the updated interest rate hikes we'll have a better idea whether this is investable at these SP levels. ATM it is uninvestable!

rxdav, the one in the hole here is the one who's already thrown his money into it & wished he hadn't! A deep hole it is too!

i think it's daft to throw good money into a bottomless pit & watch it steadily evaporate into thin air. Those who have heeded my opinions which have all been based on true facts & simple rationales would have avoided being seriously underwater having attempted to catch the falling knives currently raining down on this share. I'm not chasing rainbows like many naive people do. It's crazy to buy in at the current prices & those unfortunate enough to be locked in at higher prices know this too well. This downtrend shows no sign of abating not one. There are only headwinds on the horizon here atm. That is the harsh reality!

You won't make a prediction for the simple reason that as a holder you have to predict a high price to avoid looking daft & you know that a high price prediction has no credibility or any reasonable hope of being achieved!

rxdav. Give me your price prediction for next Friday, then i'll give mine. Next Friday we will then see who has credibility or not! can't say fairer than that can i?

Is anyone on this bb expecting anything other than a significant rise in interest rates over the near term??

rxdav, you fell into the impatient FOMO trap. Should've bailed out the other day. My interest is not where this is next Friday. Let's see where it is on 3rd November when the interest rate goes up again!

i intend to start buying at around £10. Tranches of 250/500 shares at a time here i think. This is a volatile share but i think at the £10 level this represents a reasonably safe bet. Will need a bit of patience with this one!

rxdav, Sub £10 is nailed no here IMO. I have the patience to wait for the inevitable drops rather than falling into the FOMO crisis as you yourself have done. I did say the other day was an opportunity to cut your losses & buy back lower which was obviously good advice. You know well i have called this one right for a long while now. You & others however live in a false dream world of large dividends & soaring house prices. The credibility crisis is on the bull side here & that will continue for the foreseeable. Time to take off the blinkers & realise the trajectory here!

Crossley, I'm also looking at TW as a possible buy in & Gleeson's. Marshall's will be interesting if it goes sub £2. PSN has Finch in charge. A very good CEO. For a 5-10 year outlook PSN could be a potential goldmine. For now getting the entry price right is the key!

Sbs, zero debt as far as i can gather. £780m net cash per HY results. No solvency issues here. A good company all round which i've always said. I get rather slated for my bearish stance on the SP but i fully intend to buy in here. Probably looking at quite a large investment too. This will be good for long term but crazy to buy yet IMO. Too much uncertainty. I'm waiting at least until next BoE interest rate announcement before possibly taking a dip here. Buying this based on previous dividends is fools gold! if it looks too good to be true, it is too good to be true!