Member Info for Paddyboy1

rxdav, what was your buy in price here?

so a buyer who took out a 2 year fixed rate mortgage of £200k last year would see just the interest go from @£4k per year to £20k per year. That is total madness. & what will Liz & Kwasi say then?

and judging by the last couple of weeks lenders are not increasing their mortgage rates just by the BoE rate either. could see fixed deals nearer 10% by EOY. scary stuff!

A sensible answer Phippy. But does anyone really expect that to happen. To be fair if it does i'll happily hold my hands up here & accept i was wrong. I just can't see it with double digit inflation. wage strikes going on etc etc!!

just a question of how much they'll raise it? 0.25/0.50/0.75?? Higher?? they won't reduce it anyway!

rxdav, do you expect the PSN SP to be higher than today's SP level after the next BoE rate decision??? simple yes or no will suffice!

Any comments which are bearish always tend to be heckled at on these BBs fair enough i suppose as the bullish contingent tend to have skin already in the game. Are the bull element here seriously expecting this SP to rise in the face of an imminent base rate rise. I'd really be keen to understand why anyone would believe why that would happen??

comments on these boards have no impact on SP. It's comments from Kwasi/Liz & BoE that do that!

I see PSN as a potential investment for a long term (multi year ISA) hold. The current price is too high given the state of the market & the interest rate uncertainty. I believe today's SP is too high to justify an entry yet. I may be wrong here & good luck to those invested if that is the case. Personally i prefer to miss the boat than end up stranded on a sinking ship. The sad irony is that i believe the PSN SP is well & truly in the hands of dynamic duo Liz & Kwasi & not what is a good management team at PSN. Finch used to be NEX CEO. I was invested there & did quite nicely. For me i think the next BoE decision is key here. I'll definitely wait for that before any investment!

rxdav, i don't get annoyed or anything by different viewpoints. That's what these BBs are for after all so that people can challenge viewpoints. I'm not short on PSN. I have a bearish outlook yes but no position as yet. Some points made are true & valid. Yes, most sensible buyers will have fixed mortgages! Yes, renting is dead money compared to buying! However how many people who have fixed their mortgage are anticipating & ready for a 3-4 fold increase in interest when their fix expires? Those buying get repossessed if they can't pay their loan & may still owe a big load of money thereafter. A defaulting renter gets evicted, That is it, they walk away! I have seen the same type of rhetoric on this BB on the steady tumble down from mid £20s. I think PSN is fundamentally a good company but the current environment will not support this SP. Can anyone give me good reason why this should stay at or above this level after the next rate rise from the BOE??

so, take an average buyer on say £30k pa salary which is around £2k per month net income. Do you not think they might be a little bit deterred from buying now that 20% extra of their money will be swallowed up before we even consider the higher energy bills etc?? I don't think this has been priced in here at all yet!

rxdav, the maths i've used is fairly rudimentary. i.e 2% of 200k is £4k vs 6% of 200k is £12k. So £8k extra over 12months is around £650 extra pm. The point i'd make is why buy into this NOW when all the lenders clearly expect further rise in the rate? Can you or anyone see that the SP would rise in value while the IR is on the rise? i'd like to understand why it might.

i'll be interested to see how many of the properties forward sold off plan get cancelled. Could be a big dent in the numbers!

is there any real argument that the SP would not drop if the interest rate rises further. Obviously all the banks & other mortgage lenders are anticipating much higher rises as the BoE hasn't moved from 2.25% yet but the lenders are moving their rates up daily?

some good points being made here for the up & downside. Today it looks like it's dipping due to news highlighting interest rate rise effect. lowest 2 year fix is now over 6% (was 2% or lower last year). As a rough calculation that knocks up monthly payments from around £900pm to £1500+ pm for a £200k loan. These are big numbers for the average household & it's just the start by all accounts. God knows where this silly government is taking us!

I honestly believe atm it's time to just wait out this storm rather than buying shares as tempting as the prices are looking. I've got a fair holding of shares my biggest is Wood(oil company). I've been tempted to buy more in a few different companies as many are now at or below covid lows but i just see no sign that this entire market is going to turn for a while. I know they say buy when there's blood out there but ffs these markets are just insane!

don't complain too much. This has held up really well. Look around at the entire market. Everything getting well clattered. This is my biggest holding & i'm just thanking God for small mercies atm!

rxdav, good points made. I'm from that generation too when interest rates at 5-6% were the norm (low in fact) i bought my 1st place for £45K. sounds silly now but i remember constantly worrying about the mortgage. No fixed rates then just capital repayment or endowment (remember that stitch up?) It really nails what the problem is here. Generation 2000 have only really known ultra low interest rates & tailor made mortgages. They've been molly coddled really. The problem is that people have been allowed to overstretch their budgets to breaking point to buy what would have been out of their reach in years gone by. This in turn has fuelled property rises (simple supply & demand) This sudden jerk up in interest rates is causing huge panic. All over the news & media people are worried whether they'll be able to repay their mortgages now. Remember the sub prime scandal in the US? there's a whiff of that here. Just a wait & see for now i guess!

Well, these are obviously politically fuelled drops & rather annoying to watch however i think WG has held up quite well looking at the wider market turmoil. Just need to hold firm here & buy more if you have funds. Will see a good turnaround once the financial markets settle i think!

I expect a dead cat bounce @£10 level as some buyers will see that as the bottom but no reason why this won't go lower than that in the absence of any positive news!