Member Info for Ortus

I came on board here today. Seems the drop from 45p last week was a bit short sighted but it's providing an opportunity before AAZ news lands. Big news on decent assets at this MCAP should go down very well.

ARCM will be on more peoples watchlists now as there will be anticipation for an AA deal announcement. When it arrives it should be a very busy day here.

We also have more details of the Cheyeza / Kalaba proof of concept to look forward to with a "highly attractive return on investment for Zamsort with annual free cash generation per annum of around $15 - $20m at conservative copper prices". Nicely de-risked here.

Are you familiar with the lifecycle of a mineral discovery? Here it is:

1. Digging in
2. Speculation
3. Discovery
4. Orphan period
5. Institutional / strategic investment
6. Operating mine

We can expect to see the most significant uplift in SP / MCAP during stage 5. Institutional / strategic investment as this is when the likelihood of mining the mineral resources becomes more certain.

At this stage the project is significantly de-risked thanks to the commitment of funds and also from the due diligence performed by the majors and institutions.

This part of the lifecycle may take several weeks / months and Investors can benefit heavily during this time.

Example I shared previously of the above is SOLG who went from 4p to 28p over 4 months. Then 3.5 months later up to 42p. ARCM has a similar MCAP now to that of SOLG at the time.

The lifecycle is obviously a typical scenario and each stage may not play out exactly like this, but it's clear that ARCM are now entering the significant stage 5. Institutional / strategic investment.

We already have a pension fund invested and just recently an institution joined in. Let's see what happens when AA show their hand. I expect more of the same with the SP personally. Other key players will likely come in along the way too.

AA confirming a successful technical review 7th December tells us that they think our copper is good enough for them to take on. It seems there's only one way for this to go.

This is my opinion only.
DYOR and invest accordingly.

The best indication we have right now is some kind of news this month, so within the next 2 weeks.

Let's see what happens but I'll extend my patience to at least then.

Trying to figure out what the short term looks like for us here and what happened with SOLG in 2016 seems to be a popular comparison as they had a similar MCAP to where ARCM is now and I think the strategy taken there is very much aligned to what NvS has told us to date. Going over the RNS's here's a summary of what happened.

SOLG 6 bagged from 4p to 28p over 4 months and this was driven on the whole by institutions and major involvement over that time where 15% of the company was taken. That's 1.5 bags per month average.

If ARCM replicated this it would take us to a massively inflated SP right before our 2021 drill campaign was due to commence, which would be perfect timing for us.

Back to SOLG and after they hit 28p there was an additional 3.5 bags (from 4p) to 42p over the next 3.5 months, this time from incoming exploration updates. Another 1 bag per month average.

ARCM are at the start of what could be a similar re-rate and with our assets and arrangement with AA I see no reason why this can't happen for us.

This is why we may be better not being subject to a takeover. We could be worth double a takeover amount over a steady 6 months, not a few years. I understand this is an optimistic view and we can't expect the same exact story to unfold as SOLG but it shows what's possible with the right assets and management which we have.

AA know our assets only too well and they'll want to get this done and in the bag once and for all.

However, ARCM looking very, very exciting and well worth the wait. Are we about to do a Solgold...?!

Anyone wanting a long term hold with ridiculous potential upside should research Jangada (JAN) as mentioned below already. Brilliant research available and only 12M MCAP (for now).

Fair play for sticking it out Trickytree77 and good luck to you especially, and also to the rest of us. Let's hope for a good run up to the weekend.

I'm another ARCM'er and planning to keep hold of my shares. Been adding to JAN lately too for the long term.
Great day today ;o)

Major, £250M maybe for Fwiji only. Not all 14 assets ;o)

Yes this is MUCH more than clarification about an extension, it's confirming that the AA due diligence on Zaco & Zamsort entered into early December was satisfactory. Everything now ticked with AA just need an offer. I sense a very blue day ahead.

Arc Minerals ("Arc") announces that it has received a formal notice from Anglo Exploration Zambia Ltd ("Anglo American") dated 6 January 2021 that, following due diligence, it is sufficiently satisfied to give notice to conduct negotiations in respect of a commercial transaction prior to the expiry of the extended exclusivity period of 180 days, commencing in January 2021.

If not takeover I think it will be an AA equity stake too as this allows more options for ARCM with other interested parties to invest and / or sale of the remaining share of the assets once plenty of value had been added. I can't see an earn-in JV here personally based on NvS's comments to date as that could take longer than desired IMO and would hand too much control over to AA.

I agree with you about Fwiji Kullybahia.
I'd like to see an offer for this alone that allows us to retain 100% of the 13 other targets. Or maybe the whole of Zaco as that will still leave is with most of the targets including Cheyeza (for our own processing as per scoping study) and Muswema.

It's going to be very interesting to see how a deal looks.

ARCM for me.
Currently in exclusivity agreement with Anglo and waiting on announcement for a deal on ARCM's copper assets so expecting a very healthy period when that happens, or possibly takeover news. I've loaded up but DYOR obviously.

PS: Graham that was in no way meant to suggest I don't want you to stick around BTW. I'm hoping you'll reconsider to at least double figures!

I'm feeling ultra positive

Fukurokuju79 you'll need to wait for 6p to get your hands on Graham's shares. Don't worry it won't be long.

Yes it seems that AA are more desperate to buy than ARCM is to sell. Which bodes well for us ;o)

We have a company here with great / in demand assets that we get to invest in before the heard arrives it seems. If everyone knew about it we'd be having to pay a lot more than 4p a share so depends how you choose to look at it.

When it goes it will go big as many will clamber to get in and considering we have AA and their Geo's happy enough with the copper to proceed to DD then it's an even bigger gift of a price IMO.