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I'm not sure an earn-in which you'd expect to have long timescales and that handed all exploration and data release over to a third party is the way NvS will go, personally. I can't see him taking a back seat.

I'd more expect AA to take an equity stake so Arc gets a cash injection to run next year's drill campaign which leaves it game on for other parties to come in once we demonstrate value in the resources.

Or a takeover would be fine ;o)

I don't understand why there's so much judgement about the commercial viability of data from 1 RNS. The geochem and drill data is confirming sulphides / mineralisation so we know it's there, now it's a matter of hunting round to locate the higher concentrations which the RNS explains.

It's likely AA will be running or funding a dozen rigs next year and then we'll start acquiring enough data to understand the value of the resources. That's if we've not been taken over already of course.

AA's decision to proceed is the only indication we need right now as to whether we have commercial quantities of copper.

Not so much a peak. AA completed a full technical review which as per Tuesdays RNS was good enough for them to proceed to due diligence at company level which we'd expect to happen prior to an offer.

You could say that results are now somewhat irrelevant since we only want copper to some day attract a major. Once you have the major and the major wants the copper, then we're close to another type of DD. Deal done.

With that in mind it's strange that today's results are good enough for AA but not good enough for some PI's.

101

I recall you posting previously with a more upbeat outlook than that shown in your posts today.

With respect, my view is that you've considered a fairly random scenario for which no evidence exists to support. There's likely to be a far more simple and probably beneficial reason for recent activities considering we're heading towards the end of the Anglo EA period.

Exploration companies are going to be relied upon more than ever so Zambia will need to be seen as an attractive prospect for juniors, not a risk that would deter future investment for new discoveries.

Considering the amount of licences over there that have been left unexplored, I'm sure ARCM are in the ministry of mines good books under the circumstances.

GL

Mathematically I'd say it is yes

Make that 5.
The 5th one being the most intriguing.
Hold for gold (joke)

C'mon guys where are all the one liners about the stock market transferring money from the impatient to the patient and how good investing comes from good emotions.

Not much talk about our copper today either, the fundamental reason for ARCM multi-bagging :o)

There aren't many tier 1 assets up for grabs out there. I doubt AA / DW would have stopped their search at Fwiji if they didn't find what they desperately need. You usually only stop looking for something once you've found it. So I expect DW's expertise with the soil samples came good.

The same soil samples that lead us to sulphides on the 1st hit at Muswema. It seems that the exclusivity agreement provided us with a much more precise copper map in return which must be hugely valuable with so many targets.

Everything that's happened or changed this year at ARCM has added to the likelihood of that deal we've all been waiting for in my opinion.

May
Additional 20% stake in Zaco to take us to 72.5%. So more control with NvS for negotiating a transaction and a lot more future returns for us. Also Zaco just happens to hold Fwiji....

July
AA exclusivity agreement and AA jump straight into Fwiji. Of course they do.

November
Board reshuffle. To be expected ahead of what could be transformational news. Various ways that this could facilitate an AA deal. No surprise that some may not have liked this.

December & January
LOTS of lab results. More sulphides right before OTHER news is expected.

To me this looks like a very well executed plan and we could be very close to the business end now. I've stolen this as it's a favourite of mine but "don’t bother finding the next multi-bagger if you aren’t going to develop the conviction to hold it". Maybe the sellers are already looking.

But that's just my take so DYOR.

2/2

So why resign as NED now?
- He knows BOD well & suspect is more than comfortable deal is incoming
- He may well appreciate his past relations with majors is a hinderance & be stepping aside to support the company he’s a 6.9% holder in
- Other local Zambian appointed 29/10/20, resignation seems planned
- Has other interests in country including gold assets. ASX listed Volt recently pulled out of JV on one meaning Mumena now has to focus on that.

Will he sell shares/has he been selling shares?

- Don’t know. Only way we’d find out if TR1 issued saying fallen below 6% from 6.9%
- Zambian currency significantly devalued & likely to weaken further. This means Arcm shares worth more in local currency, however it would be madness to sell for Zambian currency when inflation is 17.4% (As of November 2020). Zambians will be keen to keep assets in overseas currency!
- Despite above he could need money for other ventures. With wet season starting now it’s would appear unlikely- at least in significant amounts.

Very useful info from knowledgeable investor on Twitter:

1/2

Little history might help explain my thoughts on why happening.

Mumena has NO interest in the licences other than his holding in Arcm. He sold to us and we’ve covered drilling. He has no part of Kopara investment who hold the remaining share of Zaco & Zamsort and whom pay their share of exploration costs.

Those that attended the Arcm investor event back in 2018 will remember Mumena rather well. He’s quite a character! He fought to get his hands on the licences after Anglo pulled out of Zambia and to retain after he did; apparently literally chucking the Chinese off at one point - he knows martial arts :o)

NVS has said before that majors couldn’t believe Arcm got our hands on the licences they coveted for years. It’s Mumenas tenacity in holding them off that has given us this opportunity. I’ve no doubt few of the majors are happy to see him leave Arcm! We however have a lot to be grateful to him for.

After fighting to retain the licence for years it was Mumena selling his stage to Arcm that gave us a majority interest. This enabled us to move the project forward with other shareholders either selling to Arcm for shares or funding their share of drilling. All bar Kopara have sold and it’s now just us and them as licence holders.

All this going on as we head towards the end of the AA exclusivity period is no coincidence in my opinion.

I was reading some old articles recently and noted that it's necessary to have a Zambian on the board (seems fairly standard over there) so Caleb Mulenga coming in may be for that reason, which would indicate this was planned and certain things especially the timing indicates it's related to something AA.

Maybe we now have a BoD who are all fully aligned to an AA deal.

6 month extension unlikely as that would expire in June which is 1/3 of the way through the drill season, so I can't see the point of that.

This is why I don't think an extension will happen for any reason other than to wait for late lab reports or to tie up a commercial transaction. Extending to cover more drilling would need an extra 12 month's which isn't going to happen with other majors waiting.

Personally I'm expecting news between now and end of January.

Peggy we don't know why anyone would sell now but there will be many possible reasons. Last year I recall a £134K sell and days later we flew up.

To suggest on a public BB that those who have sold suspect something is going wrong without actually knowing doesn't feel like the best idea for a share you want to make money from.

We all want news here. The lack of it whilst nearing the end of an AA exclusivity and ** confidentiality ** period plus covid (?), well all things considered it's hardly surprising. Who knows what kind of negotiations are going on behind the scenes and getting something over the line is the priority now.

If we want to make money here I think it's time to take a step back and focus on what we DO have and the potential of something very significant happening being just around the corner.

News on sulphides at Fwiji and Muswema coming up so lets look forward to that and a nice step up in the SP. Then let's see what AA do and how deep their pockets are.

Ok thanks. Nothing about copper then?

Looks like a number of today's posts have been deleted.
Have I missed something?

Thanks Neilin62 your efforts and updates are very much appreciated.

Hopefully all or most of us here can agree that abusive messages are not necessary or useful and could in fact become damaging. Can we can keep things civil even if it's just for the benefit of fellow posters?

Although it's been a long time, it does feel like we're heading towards a conclusion here so just a bit more patience is necessary even though we have no choice in the matter.

GLA

2/3rd's into the exclusivity period and it seems that enough work has been performed at Fwiji, at least for now.

So following this, we then have the positives from the recent Indaba video, the excitement and PR from NvS and then the article 2 days ago in mining weekly "Zambia copper explorer has exclusivity agreement with Anglo American".

It seems to add certainty to me that an AA deal is happening and I feel it's a matter of when, and what it looks like.

Rather than uncertainty I think it provides another option for Arc's payment for CASA. The terms of the sale agreement should include Arc's approval of any shares offered, since NvS will want to ensure these shares are useful and / or easily disposable.

If not we get $5M cash in March.

In the interest of keeping alive whatever potential deal may or may not be happening here.....

We're all in agreement not to post anything that could potentially expose interested parties right?

I feel now more than ever we need to lay off the speculation.

Good news on sulphides at Fwiji will have a very nice impact on the SP in my opinion. Good results at Muswema will be a nice double whammy to end this years campaign. If so should also indicate increased likelihood of an AA deal sooner rather than later which should add some stability ahead of AA news.

Not many tier 1's up for grabs out there.

Of course, you have to show the customer what they ask to see otherwise you won't sell them anything. It sounds like it's been a success too. Otherwise why state in last weeks RNS that we can "look forward to a very active reporting period over next the few weeks" with respect to unreleased data for a "major sulphide discovery" at Fwiji?

Its all very exciting.