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Nice post SH and very much agreed IMO.
We've passed technical and commercial due diligence, and then it was announced that we're in a period of negotiation for a commercial transaction, and then appointed Rothschild to manage the deal. I don't think all this would have happened in that order if more drill data was needed to influence a deal. More data would have been requested prior to Rothschilds appointment IMO.
I think all boxes are ticked and we're just in a game of chicken ahead of the EA deadline so let's see how close it goes.
The fact that it's taking so long and that Rothschilds are involved makes we wonder if the deal is going to be bigger than what some realise (fingers crossed). Surely a cheeky 20M from AA for 10% or 15% could have happened by now?
The pre listing presentation for CIZ explained that we're funded for a couple of years and my takeaway on timelines was that CE (or UK equivalent) and / or FDA approval could happen sooner than we'd typically expect due to work already performed to date. Also licensing agreements are being sought which is a potential short term value event.
We're not really on many radars yet and when news starts coming in regardless of any approvals we'll soon break free from our 18M MCAP.
It's down to management delivering now and some PR wouldn't go a miss.
My reasons to remain invested and why I'm not worried.
December
AA technical due diligence completed successfully following the 2020 drill campaign.
January
AA company level due diligence on Arc / Zamsort / Zaco completed successfully.
6 month extension granted for the purpose of "negotiating a commercial transaction".
Institution bought in.
May
Advised that Rothschilds are working on a no win no fee basis.
Another approach made by other large entity who have to wait until July.
Licenses have been reorganized in light of a commercial transaction with AA.
2021 drilling kicking off at Fwiji as per last year once AA became involved in our campaign. Suggests to me we're planning on working with them this year too.
AA have made an offer and ARCM have countered which we are currently waiting to hear about.
Feels like everything is going to plan to me.
June
We have 1 month left on the AA exclusivity and considering we've recently countered an offer and with that NvS being very encouraged by the negotiations, well that indicates to me that we're very much game on here.
With or without AA we have:
More detailed knowledge of the licenses thanks to AA's soil samples and Cu:Sc maps. Well worth the cost of exclusivity.
New aerial surveys aided by the AA data.
Funded 2021 drill campaign at Fwiji, Cheyeza East and Muswema which should / could be more targeted this year now we have a better understanding from the AA data and last year's drilling.
Scoping study for new low capex processing plant at Cheyeza East with estimated $25M free cash flow.
Open doors to other majors who have been locked out for 12 months who now know that AA have not only made us an offer but that their top Geo has helped us target the copper deposits.
We're in a great position here whichever way you look at it IMO.
Hitting copper on the first drill hole may sound like wishful thinking (because it is usually) but if the TDEM 3D model has in fact found what we're hoping for and core 1 comes back good then we could be onto something very special here. It opens the door to multiple potential discoveries over a much shorter timeframe and a lot less exploration cost.
Successful drill results and more TDEM's indicating a wider cluster of deposits will send us flying due to potential upside and I'm sure some big players will be paying attention here. This could re-rate very quickly, if the proof of concept is successful.
I'm surprised we've not had any decent news here yet but I'm expecting to hold my AMTE shares for quite a long time so not concerned. They seem to have a fair few work streams running simultaneously so news could land anytime soon.
Yes Ben mentioned a mini farm-in for the drilling company. The discussion regarding bigger partners was to provide an indication that a project like this would normally require a bigger company with deeper pockets than KAV to keep drilling until they hit something. But the tech being used will hopefully save all that cost, time and the need to give too much away too early. If the first drill hits decent grades this will go crazy, since not only will it indicate they've found a potentially decent deposit but it will validate (to a greater degree) the method and any other targets found by the TDEM's.
Thoughts regarding the Kalaba mining license removal.
I think the small scale mining license (8248-HQ-SML) at Kalaba expired in 2024. With the new Handa subsidiary it may now be possible to create new and / or larger mining licenses over the area with a fresh 10 year term. Very helpful with a scoping study pending release soon.
D220
"Of equal interest to me in the webinar was the explanation Ben gave for why the 80's (?) drill by the Canadians did not find anything."
I liked this too. Significantly, the new TDEM model successfully predicted that they shouldn't have found anything at those old holes. This gives us more confidence that the new positive identification made is something that has to be drilled.
The webinar last night really was very good. If the drill data validates what could be an accurate TDEM model of a large deposit then we'll have a much higher level of confidence so much sooner than other typical exploration projects.
"Demand for cell manufacturing, however, is expected to surge in the next four to five years. It is not enough to have one or the other – we can’t focus just on gigafactory creation without being strategic about new technologies. So in parallel, the UK must exploit and commercialize the wealth of new battery technology developed locally".
“At the moment, the Envision AESC facility in Sunderland is the only UK facility manufacturing lithium-ion cells at scale (2-3GWh). AMTE Power and Britishvolt have both announced plans for UK-based gigafactories that will help supply local products to the UK automotive sector,” added David Stewart, engineering director, research and innovation at HSSMI.
https://www.enginetechnologyinternational.com/news/report-calls-for-rapid-action-on-uk-battery-manufacturing-capacity.html
Dickie3times do you know your potential CGT exposure from everything in your trading account? Considering the current value of your portfolio in there, are growth scenarios likely that could push you above the threshold? If so I'd consider moving to your ISA now. You'll be able to lose today's losses against other capital gains.