Member Info for onsolidground

Okehurst,

"Guess he must have had it planned and he sold the commercial properties to increase his liquidity in advance"

Therein lies the problem with THG in a nutshell.

All bids previously at SIGNIFICANTLY higher levels were rebuffed, as was the very Premium Listing that Kelso were calling for 2 years ago and again at SIGNIFICANTLY higher levels, and the Buybacks, and more RNS, and all whilst constant missed targets.

Then excuse me for pointing it out, but it's remarkable how all these things have started to happen when those commercial properties sold and the share price is much much lower.

So there you have it.

The retrace back to placing price that virtually always happens and sellers enticed in but no great visible uptick in buying volume. So despite an almost halving of the share price since the day before the demerger announcement and with demerger, FTSE250 inclusion, Ashley stakebuilding, refinancing and both companies, Ingenuity and Remainco now put on sound financial footing we see yet a further drop today on no adverse news.

It's a head scratcher for sure and has to be dark forces at play.

It's being done as a lever.

The questions though are how does Russia react to it and more the case the impact it has on other countries who are being told if you take any Russian oil then you will not do one cent of trade with the USA. That could put countries like India in a predicament for if I remember correctly they did sign up for Russian oil whilst the western world were embargoing it.

https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/india-imports-49-billion-worth-of-russian-oil-in-3rd-year-of-ukraine-invasion/article69261150.ece

£75M subscription over there by Lance Stroll and he was prepared to pay a 7% premium for the large extra stake.

Not MM though, he bagged himself a nice discount even to the 34p placing price.

AM also selling their minority stake in the AM Formula 1 Team.

Lets see what the week ahead brings @THG

Now Trump pee'd off at Putin and threatening to ram up tariffs / sanctions on Russia starting with Russian oil and 25% to 50% tariffs. Just when you think it might be going one way it turns and goes the other way.

*turning* against Putin

DJT seems to be truening against Putin fizzing at his comments about Zelenski being replaced and is now threatening 25% - 50% sanction on Russian oil and that those doing business in it will be completely excluded from doing ANY business with the US.

I guess we just have to sit tight and wait for the next round of talks, albet this time around none have been announced yet.

He being Trump.

I think its maybe more simple than that JNth and just down to the fact each time the EU tighten sanctions on Russia, then to show they are playing their part also Ukraine tighten the screw, initially on Zhevago now on FXPO. Unfortunately the legality of the later efforts in targeting FXPO itself are being called into question and hence the Bilateral Trade Protection of Investment / expropriation challenge and the consequences also firmly spelt out regarding withholding VAT refunds (jobs, community and lack of corporation tax...)

Much though he is trying not to involve the EU until last minute the lifting of sanctions will have to be unilateral - and involve the EU.

Fitch upgrades I've seen on occasions add 10% plus to companies share prices due to the improving debt profile but the market just doesn't seem to want to give THG any credit whatsoever for the substantial reduction in debt and removal of interest rate costs. It's always happy to keep taking away, but never giving back. For example

Demerger of Ingenuity to unharness Remainco - no jump in the share price

FTSE 250 inclusion - no jump in the share price

Mike Ashley / Frasers Group over 6% - no jump in the share price

Debt Refinanced - no jump in the share price

In fact since the demerger announcement on the 17th September 24 the share price has cratered or been made to crater nearly 50% from the 64.25p it was the day before the demerger announcement to the most recent placing price.

If it doesn't recover meaningfully in the next few weeks (and next numbers are critical) then for me there has to be a 3rd part of the plan. A Plan C, with either an approach, maybe a known and friendly one off Selkirk, or I'd be watching for an intention to delist and the same already trodden route that Ingenuity has taken. Then I would fully expect MM, just as he did at Ingenuity to look to climb back to an over 50% holding in due course off low share prices and to gain majority control.

Last time MM and QIA bought out Softbanks entire stake at 39.5p there was an initial rise, then a muted next few days, then a sustained rise. Hopefully the same here and negating the above thoughts.

I honestly have now words on this now.

Oculus if you join the ranks of the esteemed FTSE250 then generally speaking if the index goes up then so do you, and vice versa. I wouldn't read too much into todays fall other than that imvho.

Took the money at circa 300p.

Now sitting back and waiting for the next rinse and repeat.

If you can't beat em, join em.

Somebody has been making a darn tidy living moving this back and forth.

Pearls I'm only expecting TGL to have any notable averaging down, maybe Damien Saunders also on the Directors side. Others have left the Board.

Maybe the odd percent here or there, maybe Ashley / Frasers, but the timeframe with which the placing was most done and the fact it excluded Retail through an open offer, suited MM who had the funds to hand and who probably had a big say on the timing and fact it was an accelerated bookbuild.

Back to quiet trading and no real volumes again.

Why the surprise!!

I did say on results day that the results didn't look too bad.

OhhAhhCantona

Or alternatively he may have been paying 34p on the F+G shares whilst only 32.3p on the convertible loan shares so chose to save. All these pennies add up when you're dealing with £60 million.

Would probably pay your fees and probably leave you enough left over for several weekend ski trips.

Look after the pennies and the pounds look after themselves as they say.

He still has those F+G shares in the bank for a later day should he require them.

It does highlight though that the £30M placing element wasn't so well supported and appears undersubscribed.

Shifting to JP Jenkins and matched bargain platform

Principle reasons given:

Market cap doesn’t match the value of the assets

Lack of liquidity and volatility and suppressed share price is stopping some partners accepting shares as part of any deal

Costs and regulatory burden

Difficulty raising finance

Probably more the case that it's yet another Hedge Fund and Shorting tragedy

When will the powers that be get the message that there is Zilch regulation and enforcement in the City of blatant manipulations.

Advfn cancelling it's listing on Aim

High profile one and not often it's a financial.

Not changed my tune on Selkirk as I still think personally that they will find it hard to a raise monies to pay a premium price for any minority stake.

But MM and all these placings are doing a fine job of continually dropping the share price, making it more affordable and with debt sorted and in also changing the construction of the holdings on the share register. Iain Mac also in charge, one of MM's key previous lieutenants.

I think events of the last 2 days have taught everyone that in business anything can happen, and often does.

I'd get used to him as CEO yespsb for the size of that convertible loan says he is isn't going anywhere any time soon, unfortunately.

Incredible really that it's retracing back only one day after such a decent restructuring, addressing and reducing debt. I can only the market is averaging out the extra placing shares and dilution so the market cap remains broadly similar to where it was prior. Or (my favourite) it's Ashley's algos averaging down also.

Seriously not a formal peep out of Kelso or Selkirk Group either. Part 3 of the Exit plan?