Member Info for onsolidground

My twopenniesworth - Morrisons will end up being the casualty of any Asda actions.

It'll more than probably go skywards as it should see the beginning of the end of what has been 3 years of threat to FXPO's mines and production through missile strikes and territorial losses and at the same time take away any risk to power supplies and also opening up wider supply routes.

There's not much selling even at these lowly levels which should add to the scarcity value of the shares when demand rises and you'll then get the press identifying the Ceasefire winners, of which FXPO should figure heavily.

I think if you realise that this Ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine and any Peace deal are all just part of a wider MAGA business plan with individual deals also bagged with Ukraine (Rare Minerals deal) and with Russia also then you know it will happen. Not if, but when imvho

Mind you Ashleys algos are not the only ones that's gone quiet.

MM seems to have lost his tongue on Linkedin (or been reigned in by TGL)

And then there's Kelso and Selkirk. Both very quiet and I think all are still patiently waiting for a next Kelso update which seems to be overdue.

Have seemed quiet these last 3 or 4 days.

Not complaining mind.

It’s analogous to Ryanair warning on profits then all the other budget airlines drop in sympathy.

The big difference is that if Ryannair have warned on profits and others have fallen in sympathy - it has happened.

Here it's only a stated intention by a rival and financial suicide if you ask me given the high level of debt and increased staffing costs courtesy of Rachel.

Perhaps the longer term bet is that the German discount supermarket chains like Aldi and Lidl respond, Tesco and Sainsburys do the same and Asda goes under with more market share for all.

Need a few more of these to help build a base and some support behind the share price again.

Firstly thanks for now answering questions I asked you on the FXPO bulletin board several days back when you were imo FUD spreading. So,

"I have not read this any where, but applying a bit of common sense."

So it's not written anywhere!!

So just taking this one stage further with the next bit of your post,

"State can nationalise assets on grounds of national interest, and the Mineral Deal touted with US may be used by Zelensky to get at Zhevago."

So where have you come about this notion from? Where, anywhere in legislation in Ukraine does it state that Ukraine can nationalise assets on grounds of National interest? I'm not interested in common sense, I'm not interested in anywhere else. I'm interested in Ukraine and facts. Where?

"They haven't got any disclosed investments in Ukraine."

That's a shame for I suspect Ukranian assets will probably have a bigger bounce than anything that is Russian or associated with the Moscow Stock Exchange. Ukranian assets should you would think move on a Ceasefire and particularly if operations have been hampered for 3 years then further on a full blown peace deal. Whereas to the contrary anything with a Russian connotation you would think will have to wait for not only any ceasefire, plus then a signed and dotted Peace Plan, plus then also crucially for Sanctions to be lifted (and trading on the MOEX again), and then add in hopium that they are not shunned or sold down by investors who haven't been able to in between times.

I did btw look at the Top 10 investments RNS prior to scribing and though none of those listed appeared Ukranian that only amounted to 20% of the Total. They might even be holding some FXPO themselves outside the Top 10? or different Ukranian assets.

Just a 2nd point which is that you really need to start looking at your moral compass in posting hearsay posts (i.e. others post) as your own and as gospel on any bulletin board and without having done your own research, verifying it and coming up with links to back up what you say.

GL though with your investments and I hope this one and FXPO comes good for you.

If the Trump / Putin call tomorrow is successful and we see a ceasefire, and then that builds to a full blown Peace Plan, how long do you envisage it would take the Evraz suspension gets lifted?

Just one further query from me JNth.

Is there also not also the problem here that any investments in Russian assets might find themselves stigmatised and ignored as many Western investors now have the benefit of 3 years worth of history and may be hesitant to reinvest in any Russian assets classes?

Good Evening JNth I was researching a few Ukranian / Russian stocks this evening, like Evraz (suspended) and JEMA with a view to maybe tomorrow taking some positions but was just wondering how a Ceasefire in Ukraine might be of benefit to JEMA and any investments they may have in Ukraine and Russia, when you seem to be persistently posting (without any links or corroboration) on the FXPO bulletin board that supposedly any assets in Ukraine can just be Nationalised carte blanche by the Ukranian Government. That presumably is a situation that would apply to all assets classes including any that JEMA have and irrespective of the fact they too are western owners.

I was wondering if you'd care to explain with links please?

A bit of publicity never goes amiss.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-14507381/SMALL-CAP-IDEA-Flu-Camp-rapid-drug-trial-firm-slashes-big-pharma-costs.html?ico=mol_desktop_money-newtab&molReferrerUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fmoney%2Findex.html&_gl=1*16sizw*_gcl_au*NzAyODcyODUwLjE3Mzg0NTk4OTY.*_ga*ODkyNTUwOTEyLjE3Mzg0NDU4OTg.*_ga_C9F47K6NW6*MTc0MjIzNDY3Mi4yMjYuMS4xNzQyMjM0NzU2LjYwLjAuMTg0Nzk2MDU3MA..

"Donald Trump said that he could announce details of a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine as early as Tuesday, when he is due to speak with Vladimir Putin.

The two leaders will speak by phone, officials confirmed, after the US and Russia held behind-the-scenes talks over the weekend.

“I’ll be speaking to President Putin Tuesday. A lot of work’s been done over the weekend,” the US president told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday night.

“We’re doing pretty well, I think, with Russia. We’ll see if we have something to announce by Tuesday.”

It's not a bad thing building into results 1msn.

It's getting close to that 60p breakout and I must admit I thought it might have done it earlier today.

Tesco though is a well managed company Pearls and they have already been price matching Aldi and still turning good profit, and I suspect they could easily do the same with Asda and price match them - leaving the having cut off their nose to spite their face, and highly indebted Asda up #hi# creak without a paddle. They / Asda could end up going the same way as Somerfield did a few years back.

I've watchlisted it for when I think the fall is stabilising then it can hopefully go in an ISA with a chunk of next years allowance for the dividend and another chance at growth potential.

I'm thinking the same jamtart.

That's nearly 15% of a drop in 2 days

Can't see it ever having that much of an impact being as supermarkets are rarely next door to each other and you are trying to overturn buyer established buyer experiences and patterns over and above solely price.

Its the 15% drop on only talking about it that gets me.

It's on my active watchlist as its negotiated pandemics, Greman discounters and cost of living crisis and has always come out the other end with positive result.

Johnsilk I think the thresholds for a Ceasefire and a full on Peace deal are entirely distinct from each other, and with the Ceasefire requiring a MUCH lower threshold - in essence only requiring an agreement. One of course being the stepping stone to a 30 trigger period to hard negotiate the finer details on ending the conflict.

From confiding on chatter of land pullback or not, and on who keeps the power plant it's clear that talks behind the scenes are progressing beyond ceasefire to what is in the peace deal proper. Add to that the points you highlight of warming Russia / US relations (re-establishing embassies, direct flights, even referring to the US as "Colleagues and Partners) and reassuringly Putin has been positive on developments - "in broad agreement".

The Ukranian side re a ceasefire (plus Mineral Rights deal) has already been delivered to Trump so lets see how he gets on after any further shuttle diplomacy over the weekend and what happens when he puts that call in. He has many carrots and sticks to play with.

In agreement with you that it will be Ceasefire and Peace deal first as the Head of Arma has openly stated that they are powerless to act and need new legislation. That'll take time and I suspect elections in between time.

Personally I'm not going to engage in FXPO valuations other than to say it's exceedingly cheap for being near a ceasefire and with what will come - a ramp up to full capacity production, and without any military threat or damage to energy infrastructure, and also if they can quickly recommence bulk exporting by ship and sea and through their full range of channels.

A ceasefire I don't think is far off and suspect it will just be delivered out of the blue but accompanied by immediate details on next level negotiations.

GL all.

Surprised at a further fall this morning simply off what Asda's stated intention is.

Probably providing a gift of a share price if you know Asda has lost so much business and that it will take significant money off them and the best part of a year to even start to recoup customer losses, what with the German discounters out there and the likes of Sainsburys and Tesco already price matching them.

Such is the huge debt burden at Asda that it might end up being their complete undoing imvho.

So Tuesday for the call and Trump following on from Air Force 1 and what Witkoff highlighted.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz6170w5jj5o

Ceasefire deal is the one everybody is patiently waiting for. Mineral Rights deal there also in the background to be signed and better economic relations with Russia also on the cards for Trump and the US. Now over to DJT and the rapport he has with Putin to weave a deal.