How the Khemisset project progress is reported inside Morocco:
https://www.challenge.ma/khemisset-le-britannique-emmerson-sur-le-point-de-mobiliser-les-387-millions-necessaires-a-la-plus-grande-usine-de-potasse-dafrique-226036/
A bit more advanced than us though.
Quite right bluepalace, GC and HL have long stated that any offtake agreement would be a Trump card, and now we know that it won't be played to secure the Strategic Investment, it will very interesting as to where it is used - to underpin the Finance Debt deal and secure a long term relationship with OCP perhaps?
chisler,
whilst I agree entirely with your sentiment, I do still feel that we will need that ESIA approval magic spark, to get the rocket to finally take off - but as ever I would be happy to be wrong. ;o)
Part 2:
Finally, the only aspect of your post that I could not see the contextual relevance of, because you sandwiched it between you opening remarks referring to bullying and indeed your closing remarks on bullying. So my immediate thought was, of it being some supporting evidence for your suggestion of abuse. When I looked at the specific post mentioned and those before and after for some weeks I can find nothing that fits that criteria of,
‘You also had a lot to say when the ESIA “wasn’t delayed” and abused anyone who said otherwise’,
so I would suggest that you review your conclusions on this.
My stance at the time boiled down to three main points:
I. A deadline cannot be said to be breached before it is actually reached.
II. Covid in Morocco was at the time causing various and extensive problems.
III. The Moroccan Elections effective derailed any normally expected timelines.
(Both 11. & 111. Were confirmed by GC in the Zak Mir Podcast)
What wasn’t clear to anyone at the time was how much of the ESIA approval would be dealt with outside the aegis of Central Government, and hence avoid the paralysis caused by a change of administration. I freely admit with hindsight that the elections have been instrumental in deadlocking progress on the ESIA approval process and as a result probably caused us LTH to suffer more SP dilution than might have otherwise been the case.
Looking to the future ideas, I have no plans to alter my RoE on this BB, so if you have any issues with any posting I make, I suggest you don’t wait over two month’s to bring it to my attention, and as for the quantity of my posting, perhaps it won’t seem so bountiful, once everyone else feels lifted by the series of expected ‘value catalysts’ to come – perhaps we will get another taste of that tonight, when hopefully neither GC nor HL will sound in the least bit worried. ;0)
Hi Ideas,
Sorry for the delay in responding to your post directed at Audible and I on another thread, as such I have chosen to respond here as the other thread has moved on in a different direction, whilst this one will likely soon be forgotten.
You mention that I post a lot, but don’t really say if you have a problem with either the quality or quantity of my contributions, so I cannot respond specifically.
I have never claimed any specific expertise and as such have only ever offered my opinion, which I had thought was the main purpose of a BB, in fact no one posting currently has demonstrated any in-depth knowledge as far as I can see. Also, as you are aware this BB is un-moderated and anyone can post more or less anything within reason, including making unsubstantiated statements about Emmerson BoD and specifically about GC and HL. For my part as an shareholder who is broadly supportive of the work of Emmerson BoD on our behalf, I couldn’t leave such statements to stand unchallenged. So on the occasions where no one else stepped forward, I did so, and yes some of the exchanges were at times fairly robust and perhaps didn’t present a harmonious feel to this BB, but the do nothing path would have left the impression that there was a broad dissatisfaction with the Emmerson BoD from a large group of PIs, which I personally did not believe to be the case.
Having said that I would suggest that within the context of this BB it actually impossible to bully anyone, as the filter option can be used to remove the comments made by any other contributor from your notice – which I would have presumed that you were aware of?
(More to follow in next post :0)
Do you think we could get close periods instigated for chisler? the poor chap seems to be looping at the moment so it definitely seems like he could do with a 60 day rest ;o)
The progress on the SP is certainly driving the De-rampers crazy, both here and on other BBs :0)
Hi SlurmsMckenzie, Thanks for your comments, I also thought that Danakali might be racing into production, but seems to be moving slowly at the moment. You make a good point though, that regardless of the potential value of the project, or that they might be considered World class, being in Africa always seems to be held against a project until it comes to fruition. I'm just glad that Khemisset is in is in Morocco rather than almost anywhere else on the continent.
On your point though, 'Must be an old chart, because of the situation of Salt Lake Potash and Danakali having changed', is quite correct, but I believe it doesn't alter the point that Hayden was making, which was that the Market valued them much higher because of where they were on their development cycle at the time - 42% and 24% of valuation respectively, rather than 3% for Emmerson, hopefully demonstrating the significant scope for SP improvement.
Yesterdays RNS, was certainly not the news I expected next, but thoroughly welcome none the less
and looking at Hayden's subsequent tweet on this subject, i'm wondering if he reads these posts.
https://mobile.twitter.com/HaydenLocke5/status/1458353286470414338
In which he gives his latest SP assessment:
'What % of NPV should a FS level project, that has just unlocked a chunk of its financing, trade at? Market says between 25%-50%, sometimes higher. Based on Khemisset FS, EML should be £250m to £500m. Based on spot potash prices, we're the cheapest stock on AIM! Am I wrong?'
In the tweet, an acompanying table provides his supporting evidence, providing some examples of comparable companies.
Hi Thorpe,
I am pleased that you found my reply informative and hopefully reassuring, I must admit that I also learned a lot in doing some research, just to attempt a reply to your questions - Even though I probably still only scratched the surface of the issues in my reply.
You pose a number of questions Thorpe, and since reading them I have been trying to make sense of what position is? Or even what difference it would make if these questions were answered? So whilst I cannot and do not, claim to speak on behalf of either Emmerson or indeed anyone in Morocco, the answers to some of your queries are fairly easy to locate, or derive from what we do know, IMO.
So in attempting a partial answer I hope that you will be ok if I make two assumptions?:
1. That there are no laws in Morocco that prevents Moroccan nationals living in Morocco from holding stocks and shares in Foreign companies.
2. The vast Majority of Moroccan nationals are Muslims.
Making these assumptions allows the answer to the questions you pose to apply to all potential Muslim investors, not just Moroccan ones, and whilst I am neither Muslim, nor claim to understand the finer points of what constitutes a Halal investment, the article below does purport to provide this information:
https://crescentwealth.com.au/islamic-finance/6-tips-on-how-to-check-a-stock-is-halal-or-haram/
I believe that if you review this information, you will understand why Emmerson is not currently a share that a Muslim investor could purchase,(even though at some stage in the future they might be able to do so). As such it would be pointless trying to encourage Moroccan nationals to purchase Emmerson shares at this time.
Having covered one issue can we turn to your assertion, ‘that there may be something a bit passé about European investors digging up Moroccan mineral resources and selling them for their financial benefit’ – which I do find slightly insulting as I take exception to the inference that Emmerson shareholders are participating in some anachronistic colonial era replay in Morocco.
I certainly do not feel in the slightest bit passé in my involvement as an Emmerson shareholder – quite the reverse in fact, as personally I believe that Emmerson in its’ small way is helping advance the King of Morocco’s long standing economic development plan another step. After all it was his programme that put these foreign investment opportunities in play, and indeed set out the rules for foreign ownership of Moroccan based assets, and further how Morocco benefits from the situation. So unless you are suggesting that something gulled the Moroccan King into unknowingly benefitting foreign investors, whilst disadvantaging his own country, I am unclear what your point is?
Idg69 asked this question, but obviously no one can give a definitive reply, so I certainly won't attempt to. Also chisler quite rightly pointed out that we need the ESIA approval, which will be the skeleton key to finally unlock all the other necessary stages of this project. This should finally de-risk the Khemisset project it to the point where the SP will rise sustainably, reflecting it's intrinsic value - IMO.
Obviously others with greater knowledge and vision can give market based projections though, and this one I spotted is of particular interest as it came out in May 2021, after both the Mining license was granted and EML successfully completed a £5.5m fundraising to finance the final critical path components of development work at Khemisset. You can read what they say at:
https://www.hardmanandco.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Emmerson-Plc-EML-May-2021-Hardman-Co-Investor-Forum.pdf
From Idg69's perspective the interesting part is what they say about how to value a junior mining company at this stage of its journey to completion and coincidentally when the SP stood at 5.8 pence.
'Valuation: It is widely considered by the stock market that junior resources companies can be expected to trade at around 20%-25% of NAV, if corporate positioning is strong and the project economics are top-quality. EML currently trades at around 5% of NAV, suggesting share price upside potential'.
All of this was stated before the more recent rises in Potash pricing, so that aspect doesn't muddy the water.
As ever DYOR
I don't think anyone would disagree with that, in fact if you could buy more and faster, you might just single-handedly push the SP back up again ;0)
Otherwise we will be stuck in these SP doldrums for a while longer until Moroccan bureaucracy catches up.
At least for us long term holders the last tweet had some good news, that, 'The geotechnical drilling campaign for the main access decline has commenced' . Fairly meaningless without the ESIA approval perhaps, but it will certainly move the planning of the proposed mine excavations forward yet another step, which will save losing time later.
I think in this case Pippie, Audible is just trying to make a little extra cash on the side by mining me, instead of waiting for Khemisset to bear fruit, as he has seen others suggesting I'm full of the commodity(?), he is currently after ;0)
Perverse as it seems though, long term higher food prices are the only thing that is going to sustain long term higher fertilizer prices, so for us to get sustainable higher Potash prices, we will all have to pay sustainably higher food prices - I guessing that the only thing in Iceland for a pound in the New Year, will be a bag of ice cubes. ;0)
But the article posted was interesting in as much as it showed how all the main ingredients of various fertilizers are all experiencing highs, but Potash is experiencing it's 'highest high' possibly ever, but certainly in the last decade.
Hopefully the Moroccan Government will agree their new Finance Bill today and the actual business of the new administration can finally begin in earnest?
Shareseeker 10,
Just to add to what you have already said, in particular about comparing Khemisset to peer projects in the potash arena (not something I spotted, but I am copying the details from another board...)
For info:
AUS$740 million project debt funding secured for Mardie SOP project
15 October 2021
BCI Minerals has received approvals, subject to conditions, for AUS$740 million of project finance debt for the Mardie sulfate of potash (SOP) project.
Total funding of approximately AUS$1.2 billion is required to develop the project to a capacity of 5.35 million tpy of salt and 140 000 tpy of SOP. This includes all construction, contingency, funding, interest, and ramp-up costs and will be funded by the AUS$740 million debt package and approximately AUS$460 million in equity from a combination of existing BCI cash, ongoing Iron Valley royalty earnings, potential corporate debt and new equity.
continues....
https://www.worldfertilizer.com/project-news/15102021/aus740-million-project-debt-funding-secured-for-mardie-sop-project/
and.
Financials for BCI minerals
? NPV7: A$1,670M
? EBITDA: A$260Mpa (Salt 75%; SOP 25%)
? IRR: 16.1%
? 60-year Cumulative Cash flow: >A$14B
Mostly salt I realise, but an interesting comparison that does go someway to demonstrate the market's appetite for developments of this size and type,
So InstantExpert, you have finally reached a conclusion and confirmed what I’m guessing most of us had already concluded, that your share holding in Emmerson was always a big fat zero, but out a sense of unrivalled goodwill you made the totally unnecessary journey here to warn us all about the dire consequences that could follow from GC and Hayden appearing on the self serving Zak Mir podcast.
I personally can only take this opportunity to thank you from the bottom of my heart and say that your generous and timely gesture will be long remembered.
As you can see though from the abundant evidence, that any hopes I might have of being a successful ‘ramper’ are so far woefully inadequate, but if by any chance you should cross paths with my supposed employer(s), please could you possibly remind them that I haven’t actually been paid yet. ;0D LOL
I think Mr Jinx, that one of us is capable of reading the other's posts and responding to the comments made, so assuming you've gone as far down your cul-de-sac on this one as you can, feel free to slip away again. I am content that GC was never under any cloud as a result of his time at Sirius - so far the only cloud apparent is between you and your good sense on anything relating to GC.
Ok chisler, back in you kennel there's a good boy - no it's not an insult, because apparently you are Mr Jinx's attack dog, but once again you are chasing off the postman who is trying to deliver your Christmas present. ;0)