VikingShrimper, whilst I think you are completely correct about what should happen to GCAT SP, unfortunately GCAT is still in the 'too good to be true' stage of existence, I mean its been pretty whistle-stop on the announcements front, but although it's going to happen, psychologically I feel we just haven't reached that tipping point yet. I mean purchasing a goldmine, that was mothballed, but is now not only paying for it's own upgrades, but moving onwards to be a cornerstone asset for this company. Once the rebuilding/expansion stage is completed, Kilimapesa will either start paying dividends or funding exploration elsewhere, although Jason has always suggested that each asset as it is added, will likely be expected to pay for itself, so dividends are more likely either way the SP will climb.
But with an SP at less than 1.5, I'm guessing that because we haven't yet reached the crossover 3M ozs of reserves, means most people won't spend the time required to do a bit of research, past the company website and this BB. This is why IMO John1977 posts are a constant damping down of the firewood, before chucking it on the fire - hardly any wonder it's taking time to flare up.
This is why I keep asking people to either ignore John1977 posts, regardless how preposterous they are, or to respond on a different thread.
Lets face it John1977 has only started 11 threads out of the last 25, so he's probably not getting much notice here, as such simply responding to his messages will hardly matter, will it?
Indeed M_Night, and now it looks like the production centric team is being expanded, those goals seem realistically within our reach as the year progresses.
Additionally though I have been starting to wonder what what sort of uplift to the SP, the upcoming listing , could possibly result as a result from dual listing on Nairobi Securities Exchange, where investors there will possibly benefit from the added advantage of local knowledge of what is happening on site.
I don't know if anyone else can make any serious predictions on this topic, as on the NSE, Caracal will be a novelty and possibly a focus for local pride?
Is it just me? Or can I hear John1977 playing the same old tune through the wall again....
I cannot quite believe our luck that at the start of 2022 when GCAT have only been working on Kilimapesa for such a short time, but still what has been achieved so far, together with their plans for the future has enabled them to attract such experienced and talented individuals as Riaan Lombard as GM of its Kenya-based Kilimapesa gold operations and Paul Reeves as group CFO.
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/caracal-gold-appoints-new-cfo-kilimapesa-gold-operations-gm-2022-01-13/rep_id:3650
For me personally this is excellent news as the RNS reporting can only show part of the story of a companies progress, whilst attracting additional expertise into the company involves convincing independent new experts in the field, that the company direction and goals are achievable - as I say this for me is a great vote of confidence.
Great to see you Mrninjazx6 and Futures, please post often, whenever the mood takes you, and help expand our general understanding of What GCAT is achieving and indeed what it means to you guy's personally - as I'm sure you've felt the great vibe on this BB, particularly as you've already commented on the one sour note. An investor who say's the company is great but don't invest, who encourages and at times insists, that no-one should buy shares until just after an RNS comes out - very strange shareholder behaviour?
So can I make a small plea to you both, that as mickey1122 says, 'Don't feed the bear' :o) .
Reply by all means and whenever you wish, but try and avoid pushing John1977's message back up to the top of the threads here if you can - thanks and Good Luck to you both.
I think what you are saying mickey1122 is quite right as John 1977 is similar to a buzzing insect that's easy for us to ignore, but I would suggest that like a mosquito, sometimes you have to swat them, to stop them drinking too much of your blood.
If I responded though, My personal cardinal rules would be:
Never ever reply on a post that John1977 has begun an new thread with, as to do so keeps that post at the top of the LSE threads list, and in so doing leaves John1977's statement as the first thing any new PIs will read here about GCAT - I don't know how you feel, but I don't want anyone to believe that John1977's views are in any way representative of the general consensus on this BB. I might be wrong in saying that, but I honestly have never seen anyone actually agreeing with anything posted by John1977.
My second rule would be. to never rise to the bait and respond with anger, as the mosquito may be annoying, but it doesn't hate you, it only loves your blood too much.
Finally always state the situation with GCAT as you see things, but always, in a fresh thread which pushes the John1977 threads further down the pile.
As I say all my opinion, and probably self evident when countering John1977's deramping onslaught :0).
Whatever happens, keep posting.
Hi Greg25, May I politely disagree with you on John1977, as I believe John1977 is pretty good as a deramper, for a number of reasons, the main problem John1977 has, is that all the actual evidence undermines the deramping, so the real facts have to be ignored and a focus on tweets and unpublished future results are the only line of attack remaining that can be used to cause uncertainty.
Let's face it right now, uncertainty is John1977's only weapon, because the idea is to delay or put off new PIs from coming on-board, right, as it is not possible to put off those of us who have already done our own research and decided to commit our cash. The effect we have had on the SP is already baked in, so we are not the target of John1977's posting, except that by baiting us into responding, it diverts us from a more positive narrative/discussion, that might be attractive/persuasive to new PIs. So how do these tactics help John1977's aim? Well with all of us holding, I hardly need to tell you that every new PI put off or delayed helps keep the share price lower until John1977 or someone else, is able to free the funds necessary to make the investment he/they want to - speculation or fantasy on my part, make your own mind up, like you did about Caracal Gold, Jason and the rest of the BoD.
Hi Barravelli, sorry for the lengthy explanation, but nothing about this process is straightforward, now that it is the elected officials running the show. Like most politicians I expect most of the newly elected group are trying to decide if their involvement is going to cover them in glory, or large amounts of the smelly stuff ;o), but you are right that once it is done, we will all be wondering what the all fuss was about.
===> Continued from my previous post.
6. REVIEW OF THE EIA REPORT
A-Conduct of the meeting
a. The president opens the meeting by presenting the agenda and the approach to be adopted and resource persons invited in an advisory capacity;
b. The petitioner or his representative makes a concise presentation of his project, based on the EIA report;
c. The president presents the findings of the public inquiry and opens the debate;
d. A tour de table will allow each member of the committee to make their comments. and suggestions for the presentation and report of the EIA. The opinion of the members must also address regulatory, institutional, technical and others concerning the project, particularly those which fall within the remit of the department or entity they represent on the committee;
e. In the event of a request for clarification or information by members on aspects technical or regulatory, the petitioner or the resource persons invited by the President are called upon to provide the necessary clarifications, each in the area of ??competence;
f. In the event that the information provided is deemed insufficient, the committee defines the list of data and information to be completed by the petitioner;
g. The secretariat sends the guests an official letter, accompanied by the report of the EIA review and / or approval meeting.
B. Deliberation
The president checks the number of permanent members present and proceeds to deliberation depending on the following two scenarios (article 10 of decree n ° 2-04-563):1
1st case: half of the permanent members are present:
• The opinion of the committee is taken by consensus of the members present;
• In the absence of consensus, opinions are taken by majority vote;
• In the event of a tie, that of the chairman is decisive.
2nd case: less than half of the permanent members are present:
• The president informs those present that the committee will be convened again within a period not exceeding three (3) working days;
• The secretariat prepares, immediately after the meeting, the official invitation letters committee members at a second meeting;
• During the second meeting of the committee, the chairman goes directly to the deliberation, considered legally valid regardless of the number of members present.
Environmental Acceptability Decision (DAE or DNAE)
a. The chairman transmits the opinion of the said committee, accompanied by the report of the meeting of deliberation and the PSSE signed by the petitioner to the Responsible Government Authority the Environment or the Wilaya concerned;
b. The secretariat of the relevant committee issues, in accordance with the committee's opinion, the Decision of Environmental Acceptability (DAE) or Non-Acceptability Environmental (DNAE) of the project, signed by the Government Authority in charge of the environment or the Wilaya concerned
I believe this document was originally posted by StuAFCB last year.
===> Continued from my previous post.
5. Filing of the EIA and the conclusions of the Public Inquiry
The petitioner must file with the CNEI / CREI Secretariat the conclusions of the public inquiry and the EIA report in necessary copies (this depends on the situation of the project and its place of examination). These copies will be distributed to the various committee members at least 10 working days before the date of the review meeting the EIA
=====> Continued in my next post.
Finally for those, like me who do not read French here is the translation of the ESIA process flowchart text:
CLASSIC STEPS IN THE EIA PROCEDURE
1. SUBMISSION OF THE PROJECT NOTICE (the form is available on the site): The notice of project allows:
- The petitioner to better understand the environmental issues related to his project;
- To the Governmental Authority in charge of the Environment to verify the subject of the project to the EIA, to decide on the category of the project and to specify the level and location of the EIA review.
2. TRI: The CNEI / CREI secretariat receives the project notice and checks whether:
?The project notice is complete or must be completed, specifying the information missing;
? The project is subject to the EIA;
? The file is the responsibility of the national committee which received it or if it should be redirected to a regional committee.
3. FRAMEWORK: At the initiative of the Chairman of the committee or at the request of the petitioner, a scoping meeting could be organized for large complex projects, large size or unusual. Its objective is to define the scope of the EIA and to identify the essential questions and the information necessary for decision-making based on guidelines prepared by the government environmental authority. He provides the petitioner with the key questions to be included in the ToR of EIA (The preparation of ToRs is the responsibility of the petitioner and is not part of the committee's tasks. They must take into account the results of the scoping step).
.The framing must begin immediately after the sorting step, use a systemic approach and allows to :
? Identify:
- The limits of the study area, the information necessary for decision-making, the key issues and significant impacts;
- The issues to consider;
- The actors concerned;
- The scope of the EIA;
- The alternatives to be examined.
? Define impact analysis methods and tools;
? Establish the impact mitigation strategy.
4. DEVELOPMENT OF TOR AND EIA
The terms of reference are established by the petitioner in collaboration with the Ministry of supervision of the activity (MTA). During this stage, the petitioner must give importance particular to the following aspects:
?The preparation of the ToR of the EIA based on the results of the framework and the directives in collaboration with the MTA;
? The preparation of the EIA in accordance with the ToR and the provisions of Law No. 12-03;
?Verification of the existence or not of other texts governing the public inquiry in which project is submitted (to be checked with the MTA);
?The transmission of the EIA report in the number of copies required to the secretariat of the relevant committee;
?The filing of the request to open the public inquiry (preferably at the same time until the submission of the EIA) to the secretariat of the relevant regional committee.
==> see next post for the rest.
As you can see Barravelli, it is not a process that a newly appointed regional committee will rush into.
Below is a link to a previous ESIA document for a Tin Mine project, which was produced on the old set of rules for Mine developments, which were less stringent from an environmental situation
- also note that the document is only the executive summary, rather than the complete ESIA, which the committee will need to fully understand and to accept.
http://www.kasbahresources.com/site/PDF/1036_0/environmentalandsocialimpactassessment
The only process I can think of that is analogous to this ESIA approval, is like the public enquiry system in the UK, obviously the Moroccan system uses elected local officials, who would have to answer directly to their electorate ;0)
Thankfully though Barravelli, none,of your direst predictions have come to pass as yet, and indeed the recent Shore Capital Update is predicting Q1 of FY22 for an ESIA update.
https://www.emmersonplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/20220106-EML-update.pdf
Finally I believe that barring a General Stock Market crash, the days of the Emmerson SP lingering at 5p are now behind us, as your previous prediction, back in September 2021 that, '(the) Permit is crucial for Finance', has unexpectedly, not proven to be the case. As such I believe that the expectation now is that the Emmerson Board will continue to de-risk the project and take further strides towards the building stage, whilst we await the granting of the ESIA Permit.
Hi Barravelli,
I know you are often a glass half empty kind of person, but you appear to have missed the ESIA update that Emmerson posted in the September 30th RNS, and as such aren't aware of the actual stage it has reached.... see link below:
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/emmerson_plc/news/rns/story/xozke1w
in this RNS Emmerson stated that the submission stage for the ESIA approval had finally been completed,
'The team has completed various submissions to government agencies including, the water authority, l'Agence du Bassin Hydraulique de Sebou, Regional Department of Environment, Regional Department of Forestry, and Regional Centre of Investment. The water authority discussions necessitated the production of an additional study, adding time to the permitting process that was not envisaged earlier in the year. We are pleased to say that all parties are currently satisfied with the thorough supplementary work and the final meeting with the Environmental Evaluation Committee ("EEC") (referred to in Morocco as the "Commission Regionale Unifiée de l'Investissement"), should take place in due course'.
So looking at the flowchart for the ESIA process below:
http://www.environnement.gov.ma/images/%C3%A9tudes-impact/%C3%89TAPES_CLASSIQUES_DE_LA_PROC%C3%89DURE_DES_EIE.pdf
As such we should have completed stage 5. Filing of the EIA and the conclusions of the Public Inquiry, and be ready to proceed with stage 6. REVIEW OF THE EIA REPORT.
Unfortunately the timing for this final stage is completely within the control of the regional committee - the "Commission Regionale Unifiée de l'Investissement", for Rabat-Salé-Kénitra region -which covers Khemisset.
So yes it has been approximately a two year data gathering process to reach this point, which is normal for a project of this type, and it is now up to the chosen committee members to assimilate the information presented, such that they can ask questions and feel comfortable with approving the details.
Be careful what you wish for Mr Jinx, but on the bright side, I suppose that Emmerson could probably make loads more money from running unicorn watching safaris, than mining and selling MOP ;o)
Unfortunately though, unless you are currently in a chemically induced state, reality is far more tedious - particularily when it involves my posts ;o)
Hi Hillview1, I know what what you mean with the ESIA situation and what looks like a total lack of progress currently on this front. Like you I would be happier to be able to point to clear reasons for the slow progress, other than the usual lack of confidence exhibited by the new regional administration when it comes giving the final go ahead, to such a significant project for the region. On a positive note though the Region has recently started to update their web site, setting out their values and aims:
https://www.rabatinvest.ma/slider-bonnes-raisons-view
in this document is a lot of generally reassuring information like:
'in order to set up mechanisms for harmonizing regional developments, the project of the Regional Committee for the Business Environment "CREA" Rabat-Salé-Kénitra was launched on October 10, 2017, under the chairmanship of Mr. Wali and in the presence of the various regional actors and partners of the public and private sector. This committee has a function of strategic steering, orientation, advice, assessment, monitoring and monitoring of the business climate in the region.
At the end of this committee, three working groups were created to focus on the following themes:
-The simplification of administrative procedures through the dematerialization of urban planning permissions;
-The simplification of administrative procedures through the dematerialization of urban planning permissions;
-Simplification of the procedure relating to the environmental impact assessment;
-Upgrading and improvement of industrial zones;'
and also, 'Continuing its policy of continuous improvement, the IRC of the Rabat Salé Kenitra region obtained, in 2018, the ISO 9001 certification under its new version 2015'.
Clearly though, what is still less obvious, is what timetable the regions commit to when dealing with these important aspects of their work.
As far as I can ascertain at the moment the Khemisset ESIA will be the first one granted by this region under the 2016 Mining code and obviously as a new administration they are keen to give it full consideration.
http://www.onhym.com/pdf/Publications/Onhym_Brochure_Mine.pdf
As to your final comment Hillview1, about finding this , 'a bit baffling', and indeed, 'odd', I fully agree that the lack off transparency is baffling to us, but I cannot find it 'odd' as frankly there is nothing to compare it with, to decide if the timeline is normal or not.
Hi mickey1122, it might just be that whatever the guys at Caracal are working on cannot be tweeted about at the moment without giving too much away, or pre-empting an RNS.
Let's face it if you can't say where you are, or whom you are talking to, or what you are talking about, it would certainly cut down on the chatter for a while.
I'm guessing though that 2022 is going to be bringing lots of news on interesting and hopefully exciting developments, but one thing we can be fairly certain about is that the Caracal team are not taking a couple of weeks off :o)
Personally I hope that Jason hasn’t changed his mind about using Twitter as a means of communicating all those additional details, in real time, that have no place in an RNS. My viewpoint on this will probably seem strange to those people that know that I don’t have a Twitter account, and have never Tweeted in my life, and certainly I have no plans to start now, but none the less I have been impressed by those instances where I have seen certain Tweets, shared in a way that I could view.
I can also understand the viewpoint that just sees the frequent use of Twitter by Caracal as a form of ramping, but that view ignores the fact that Robbie and the rest of the BoD have always been unashamedly bullish about their plans and prospects for Caracal, but as far as I can judge have balanced this by setting performance targets that are easily measurable externally, enabling verification of whether those promises have been met.
So from my perspective I am content that the extensive use of Twitter is mostly a vehicle for informing shareholders of the minutiae of what it is actually taking place, both where and when, whilst building this company from scratch. I accept that all of the BoD are working on, or thinking about, realising their vision for Caracal seven days a week, as let’s face it if they don’t do the work no one is going to do it for them, and clearly they are driven to succeed. So I would only caution them against using Twitter as a personal diary, and instead stick to the fundamentals of documenting how Caracal is growing as it happens, not the milestones of course as they require an RNS, but instead how and when the very small but necessary tiny dots join up between those large ones. In my view this approach can greatly enhance the shareholder experience, and might (no pun intended), create a ground breaking experience, in the form of a time-lapse, documentary film like record of how Caracal is becoming what we all strongly believe it will one day be.
For my part, when the Caracal Web site is revamped to add in the Tanzania purchases, and creates the framework for any future additions, I’m hoping that the Caracal Twitter feed can be included, so that Luddites like me can enjoy more of the action, without having the bother of directly engaging with Twitter to do so.
Welcome on board Matador78. It is very encouraging to me and I suspect all the other LTH members of this BB, when knowledgeable investors like yourself start buying into Emmerson, when clearly it is as a result of doing your own research, rather than just following the increased media interest alone.
2021 was an exciting year for Emmerson shareholders, but a lot milestone momentum was lost due to various factors internally in Morocco. But as you are probably aware the Emmerson BoD responded by pushing ahead with all the planning and design activities that will enable project end dates to remain unchanged, and also set the stage for a series of transformational announcements during the first half of 2022. Hopefully many of them landing in Q1, all of them further de-risking this project and accelerating the SP in the direction we all know it will take.
Continued from my last post....
6. Will the detailed FS for an SOP production facility come up with a design soon, possibly one that uses some of the green hydrogen that Morocco plans to produce, for heating instead of the expensive natural gas? And will the SOP price margin persist as various new sources of supply come on stream?
7. Will an offtake agreement provide a chunk of money towards the Equity requirement. Or will a pre-agreed valuation just underpin the finance side, or could both funding elements be served in some fashion?
8. Obviously the Moroccan Government offer a variety of start-up grants to offset various expenses on new mine projects, and whilst these have to be negotiated, they should provide millions towards certain infrastructure elements, like the extensions to the electricity grid and a slip road on to the closest National Highway and even the water supply from the local dam – I’m guessing that these elements will also benefit indirectly the OCP claim areas, so hopefully the Moroccans could afford to err on the side of being generous, but either way this will cut down on our equity requirements.
9. What seemed apparent from GC’s last comment on OCP, IMO appeared to indicate that no interest had been shown by them at that point – I don’t know if this is just caused by Khemisset not being a producing mine as yet, but clearly the potential for supplying them with discounted MOP, whilst both parties are making excellent margins, as the shipping cost will be avoided.
10. The Rupert Joy effect, and no I cannot be specific, but IMO you have to believe in a requirement for a definite and on-going high level negotiation with either the Moroccan Government and/or One (or more) major Moroccan companies, which is either taking place, or will be. With presumably a sizable positive benefit for Emmerson.
Hopefully though Mr Jinx you will forgive my end of year ramblings if not all of it resonates with you ;o) , but whatever happens may I wish you and all the other Emmerson shareholders, both old and New, a very Happy, healthy and definitely prosperous 2022.
Mr Jinx as ever on these financial matters I am always impressed by your analysis and completely support your rainbow chasing and sincerely hope that it will be amply rewarded on this occasion. Not just greed on my part, although I certainly would not say no to anything over 25p a share let alone 40p +.
Obviously though the final valuation will depend on timing and many interacting variables. So what I don’t know from your statement is which of the possibles, let alone which of the imponderables you are taking into account, and indeed by how much your personal list of them exceeds mine? For me, here are, not necessarily in any priority order, the factors or elements that might just bring that rainbow into sharper focus.
1. The current Khemisset offering is based on exploiting only 43% of the potential in ground potash, and whilst I’m not expecting another 57% to be added into the pot, clearly there is significant upside potential for added value when the plans for exploiting it are finalised..
2. A total of 17 research permits outside of the current mining licence block were due for renewal. So far renewal decisions have been received for 10 of these research permits, with seven still pending - again no clues as to what these (even if we end up with just 10), might eventually add to the valuation?
3. Will the SP reach a sustainable 16p before the CLN’s generate much interest and save another chunk of dilution or not?
4. Are the current high MOP prices going to fall back or are they just the start of an upward cycle and will remain significantly higher than $450/t?
5. As climate change unfolds, will significantly more of Africa be used to grow cash crops requiring more fertilizer?
Please see next post.