Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
I take your point JonnyRingo, but there are a lot of LTHs who believe in this project, who have held it for years, but obviously just holding a share does not increase it's value, so we will need a lot of interested PI's buying in to do that, as such I agree entirely that all the current enthusiasm will evaporate if the ESIA doesn't show some movement soon. Certainly the Reginal Council needs to focus on this one early in the New Year, but any decision involving continuous water usage, is a major one in Morocco, and a number of old mine workings have left a legacy of pollution, so it is easy to see why the are moving slowly at present.
Obviously though if we are going to ever reach Audibles prediction of £1 a share which could happen if a number of events all go in Emmerson's favour, but we would be looking at a mine in full production selling all its predicted products into a market hungry for them, so possibly another 3 - 4 years hence to reach such a high point IMO.
And a Very Merry Christmas to you as well chisler, and also the rest of the LTH fellow sufferers, like you I sincerely believe that 2022 will be the sweet spot for Emmerson so thank you for your kind thoughts.
I also think that when we look back we will realise just how much progress Emmerson have made this year, and all we have missed out on so far is that cherry on the cake.
In case you haven't seen it before, Khemisset has always been a bit of an ugly duckling, but in 2022 that duckling is truly going to find it's inner swan.
https://www.challenge.ma/le-potasse-de-khemisset-peine-a-attirer-les-investisseurs-48401/
it made me smile ;-)
Take Care.
I must admit that as one of the newest investors in GCAT I am thoroughly impressed with their business model. For a new company in the junior explorer/miner space, they have certainly hit the ground running. Also quite literally having a gold mine to fund the expense of further exploration at Kilimepesa is a game changer, which avoids the usual regular rounds of dilution as the exploration budget runs dry. So whilst the SP is currently disappointingly low I’m not personally troubled, as there isn’t the worry of having to add eye watering numbers of shares just to generate relatively small amounts of additional cash.
Even knowing that the current plan is of funding the Tanzania, initial mine and processing plant build via CLN’s, raising the prospect of somewhere around an extra 450M+ shares at today’s SP doesn’t cause alarm bells because I fully accept what Jason said about the dilution being more than offset by the added value, and heartened by the repeated view from VSA Morning Miner predicting a SP at 4.2, which undoubted has factored in the finance plans.
My main problem with this and all other gold mining stocks is that my knowledge of gold mining comes mostly from ‘Aussie gold Hunters’, so all of the technical information on grams/ton goes mostly over my head, so I am very grateful for the addition analysis provided by many others, but notably, itsyou and AG1989 - a big thank you to you all.
So based on seeing what is on the table so far, leaves me with a contented smile on my face in the run up to Christmas so ATB everyone and GL for the New Year, and Doddy-Body, I hope that your full recovery comes soon, as I know from personal experience that the feeling that an elephant has rolled on your chest is not a barrel of laughs, so all the very best wishes to you.
I'm glad to hear AG1989 that you will still be posting here as well, as I'm just too much of a Luddite to follow you on twitter. So hopefully you will be able to share any interesting items that come up on your twitter group, here as well, as so far I have always found most of the chat here interesting and informative. Particularly yours', thanks
I only spotted the potential significance of this press release, when I finally read it through today:
https://www.h24info.ma/maroc/gouvernement-signature-a-rabat-de-la-charte-de-la-majorite/
It does lose a little in the translation, and waffles on like all these types of announcements, allowing an opportunity for the leaders of the coalition parties to say what a wonderful deal they have struck etc.
But WFP Secretary General Abdellatif Ouahbi does make a statement that suggests greater cooperation between central and regional authorities:
He said on the Majority Charter, ‘that this document establishes, for the first time, a close link between the government's decision at both the central and regional levels, "being aware of the need to strengthen the attributions of advanced regionalization and to accelerate development projects at the regional level"’.
Hopefully this augers well for whatever processes there are that still need to be followed - even though I believe that the coalition does not have an overall majority at the regional level covering Khemisset , it is close.
Hi Audible,
You are correct that further limitations on the sale of Belarusian MOP60 could benefit future sales of the same from Khemisset, always assuming that the current regime in Belarus doesn't change in the meantime. Currently though the last time I saw anything reported, Belarusian MOP60 had been excluded from potash sanctions in Europe.
https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2021/09/01/10680124/belarus-lukashenko-upbeat-on-potash-prospects-as-sanctions-bite/
https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/eu-restrictions-bypass-belarus-potash-sales-to-norways-yara
But as you can see this situation is subject to change, but I haven't personally seen anything reported to indicate that it has actually changed at the moment. I had seen reported that the main issue for Belarus was that it could only export its other Potash products through Russia at an additional annual cost of $500M, but analysts had suggested that the existing Russian railway capacity would be unable to transport all of the Belarusian potash to ports able to export it to the normal customers in India and China.
https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-eu-sanctions-help-russia-lukashenka-potash-tobacco/31327255.html
Thank you Mr Jinx, every dog has his day, as they say, but I cannot take all the credit as if Hillview1 hadn't felt the need to vent his understandable angst and frustration at the current, apparent snail like pace of the regional authorities, I wouldn't have been moved to look again so soon.
I have also been monitoring the top 30 local Moroccan newspapers and about half of them are reporting on Emmerson’s announcements and in a positively way, but the transparency on local and even central government decisions is almost non-existent. Which isn’t to say that decisions are not being reported, it’s just that very little in-depth information is presented on the finer details of the decisions. Here is a rare example of a follow up article giving an extra breakdown, but still not giving a breakdown of the money being spent within a region:
https://fr.le360.ma/economie/commission-des-investissements-13-projets-approuves-pour-2-milliards-de-dirhams-249929
https://fr.le360.ma/economie/commission-des-investissements-voici-la-repartition-par-secteur-et-par-region-des-projets-approuves-242534
Tantalisingly. 'In terms of the geographical distribution of approved investments, the Rabat-Salé-Kenitra region has the largest amount of investments', which is 39%, but unfortunately there is no breakdown of sectors within the specific region. What it does seem to tell us though is that ‘our’ regional committee is busy dealing with these spending decisions in some shape or form.
Personally though, I believe that the newly elected regional committee members are dragging their heels on the ESIA approval because of the extreme importance of water usage in Morocco and the failure of previous mining projects dealing effectively with the issue of localised pollution caused to the area surrounding mine sites. As a result I’m sure the committee members are going to be reading through the paperwork quite thoroughly.
Thankfully though there must be some pressure from above, as the PM must be fully aware of the Khemisset project and it’s EISA approval status, from his previous Ministerial position. So whist his Investment Committee are in overdrive, he must be requesting regional committees to expedite all matters requiring investment decisions, particularly those involving job creation, as soon as they can. Obviously though this is all just conjecture on my part.
Contined from the previous post……
I found on the site under the mining section/OTHER PROJECTS IN DEVELOPMENT, there are four projects now listed, which were not there 7 days ago with the interesting one being:
Khemisset potash project: under development by the British company Emmerson PLC which acquired the property of Moroccan Salts Limited (MSL). Emmerson PLC is preparing to start construction of the plant by the end of the year. The British firm, listed on the London Stock Exchange, has confirmed that the entry into production of the largest potash mine on the continent should take place in 2023.
Emmerson PLC has raised £5.5 million to accelerate the development of the project. The initial production targets have even been revised upwards while the feasibility study has forecast an annual production of 750,000 tons of potassium muriate (MOP).
I don’t know about you Hillview1, I personally wouldn’t expect an official Moroccan Government website to be featuring Emmerson so glowingly, if the Ministry was being briefed that the Khemisset ESIA approval, whilst not yet complete, was actually in jeopardy?
Hello once again Hillview1, as you are aware, unlike you I’m not an expert on anything in particular, but I can see that you are clearly unimpressed by our newly signed up strategic investors purchasing 81,818,182 shares at 6p each, without their being unduly concerned about our delayed ESIA approval. Even though, Emmerson no doubt had to share with them the sort of confidential information, which allayed any worries they might have had on that front.
Anyway, as you have quite rightly said, when you have 2.5M reasons to be as keenly interested in some concrete information on the subject as you are, possibly more so than the rest of us shareholders, but perhaps not by much, it does leave us anxious for actual news. Obviously though like everyone else on this BB, I’m not in a position to provide the conclusive facts that we all desire, but I have just spotted a tantalising snippet of information that hopefully indicates the direction of travel on this matter.
To cut down on the blather, I was trawling through the Regional Investment Center Region of Rabat-Sale-Keni website - which presumably will be taking the lead in approving the Khemisset ESIA. As usual the site hasn’t been updated since before the recent elections, so no new updates under the mines section. However on this occasion, I did follow the link to the Ministry of Energy, Mines, Water and Environment, Department of Energy and Mines
http://www.mem.gov.ma/
Which finally does have some new content, other than just a picture of the new Minister, the first being her handover speech on the 8th of October, where this excerpt is interesting:
Mrs. Leila Benali appointed as Minister of Energy Transition and Sustainable Development, as part of her speech, ‘She also stressed the enormity of the responsibility incumbent on everyone to move forward in the implementation of the various projects in the fields of energy, mining and the environment and to overcome the constraints and challenges, including the repercussions of the pandemic and the record prices recorded on the energy markets, with the aim of progressing towards the development desired by our country’.
But of possibly much more significance, I found on the site under the mining section/OTHER PROJECTS IN DEVELOPMENT, there are four projects now listed, which were not there 7 days ago (Sorry this is continued in the next post).
Quite so stewie8, and even odder if you could persuade a strategic investment to be made if there were any lingering doubts hanging over the ESIA approval .
You don’t seem to post here that often gonzalez5000, so it’s always good to hear a different perspective. Personally though, I’m with UncleJohn on this one, as clearly the RNS is a legally definitive record, whilst Tweets are just throw away snippets of information that are very much of the moment, and easily subject to typos – a bit like BB posts. However I do believe you are completely correct that GSM is a new holding company that was created for a specific purpose, as a vehicle for whatever investments of the same type as with Emmerson, that are currently being made by the wealthy investors, based in Singapore – nothing sinister or suspicious in that.
What I find particularly reassuring though, is that Gold Quay Capital, have been around for a number of years and have a niche role matching up wealthy investors with investments highly likely to make them considerably wealthier, which makes it even more satisfying that whilst brokering the deal for their client, they were impressed enough by what they saw to want a piece of Emmerson for themselves. Also let’s not forget that we have already $5.8M in the kitty and today the go ahead for the next $40M will be locked in, to act as the cornerstone for the ongoing debt finance negotiations.
So whilst it’s always worth opening a discussion when you have any ‘slightly worrying’ thoughts, as you have in the past, thankfully today as a fellow shareholder, you should be reassured that all the required ‘due diligence’ has been completed in good time for the final vote.
GLA
Apologies Barry5 for not responding sooner to thank you for your reply. I also believe that this should make an excellent LT investment, as unless the BoD suddenly comes up with some unexpected investment scheme to broaden their scope, Emmerson should be able to repay all their debt and be sitting on a regular annual cash flow with nothing else to spend it on except dividends. So all the LTH members will be hoping to be rewarded for our patience in two ways, first by a rising SP and then later on, by the dividends generated post production - hopefully you are tucking these in a S&S ISA to keep HMRC hands off all future gains?
I cannot say that I am familiar with John Cornford’s analysis skills, but the article does seem fairly comprehensive, even though it is just a series of educated guesses. Although at first he did seem to be heading in an unfavourable direction at the 16p/share stage. he does go on to expressing his general support:
‘Dividing the then NPV into those gives a NPV of 82.7c or 62p per share. So that is pretty impressive even after the adjustments I would make, (nearly halving the NPV to take in 10 project years instead of 19) meaning 16p and even higher looks easily achievable’
Quite thought provoking overall.
Not quite a manyana moment chisler, but we still seem on track for GC and HL's 3 - 6 months timetable from the Zak Mir presentation.
I don’t know about you chisler, but after those two presentations I thought as a group we were still trying to assimilate everything we were told, and collectively holding our breaths, waiting hopefully for the next development to arrive asap – at least I am.
I must admit though, that before the strategic investor announcement, and those two presentations last week, I had been locked into thinking that nothing dramatic would change before the ESIA approval landed. Now we have instead the prospect that any one, or all of: The debt finance package; One or even Two Offtake agreements; The final tranche of Equity Funding could be pencilled in and all the design packages for the first 4 of 7 stages of the Process Plant and Mine build, could be awarded, possibly even beginning by the end of 2021. Even though the ESIA approval could actually arrive after some, or all of them.
Obviously my personal preference is for an earlier resolution to the ESIA approval situation, but Government anywhere always runs at it’s own unique pace, as such it's great to know that so many aspects continue to be worked on regardless, then at least we can be content that the overall Potash production date isn't moving further away from us.
Welcome Barry5, always happy to be joined by someone new. As the newest Emmerson shareholder that I know about though, do you mind if I ask you a question? No pressure to answer, but may I ask you if you were aware of Emmerson before the presentations, and were just waiting for an opportune moment to invest, or the presentations plus any additional research was where your interest started? Obviously the presentations were a pivotal moment, but personally I cannot remember back to where my own first interest started and in any case so many things have changed for the better since then :0)
Yes it was encouraging to hear CV explain how the interest payments on the CLNs will not kick in until after conversion, which only happens when all of the preconditions will have been met, but as the pre-conditions actually de-risk this project and allow construction to start, so the SP is expected to rise to between 20-25% of NAV, which would in turn mean that the SP would be 'somewhere North of 16p' causing the interest payments to cease, rather than continuing for up to a maximum of two years.
In this morning's presentation Charles further pointed out that the 16p SP will be attained when the valuation is around 12% of NV, which for a company currently showing a valuation of around 5% of NAV doesn't seem too big a step if the other required pre-conditions continue to be met.
Roll on:
1. Debt financing
2. ESIA approval
3. Off take agreement/Final Equity tranche
GLA
Essentially the same news, but with a few words from Mark Zhou
https://www.miningreview.com/speciality-minerals/emmerson-announces-strategic-investment-for-khemisset-potash-project/
I do love it when the finance guys start talking about reaching 16p SP sooner rather than later - Hard to get your head around when we are banging up against 7p, but definitely an great aiming point.
Good point, hopefully the presentation was suitably game changing?
Potentially great news about the CLN interest period,
and indeed the 2 million tpa salt plan?