Well well well, what a coincidence that on such a portentous dark night, that our very own Dr Jekyll should bump into Mrs Hyde? Only joking, of course, as these things are bound to occur at ticklish times such as these.
So perhaps you will forgive me for prying, but I cannot help wondering what might be your reactions when the RNS, that only the pair of you are certain will appear, doesn't? I mean don't get me wrong, I sincerely hope you are totally ahead of the game and have somehow divined that today will be the day. But should today not meet your precisely timed expectations, I hope that somewhere amongst any tsunami of spontaneous righteous indignation, you are both able to remember that Graham Clarke and Rupert the DIPLOMAT, each in their own way, are going to be instrumental in the eventual successful delivery of the Khemisset mine project.
Chisler, I must confess that I am torn on which outcome for me, would be most interesting this week. I mean I’m obviously very keen to see a nice juicy RNS from Emmerson, but I do find myself intrigued as to what exactly would happen if your ‘patience’ actually ran out?
Possibly you would completely rubbish Graham Clarke’s abilities as a CEO leading a Potash mine building project - Even though he has amply demonstrated his expertise in this field. But of course that would see you travelling down a well worn path, often already visited, so perhaps you should widen your sights and take in the other ‘recently appointed allso rans’ on the BoD - except of course, everyone’s favourite, Hayden. Whom I personally admire so much, that I can even forgive him leaving us to go to ‘Myanmar copper’, which was thankfully so brief in duration that only you noticed that he was actually gone – mercifully though, he must have realised that we would be hard pressed to do without him, and magnanimously forgave his lack of an official title, commensurate to the leading financial role he undoubtedly performs for Emmerson,.
Still if all else fails you can always give in to temptation and treat yourself to baiting fest revisiting a selection of your favourite punch bags – the feeing you get when one inevitably bites back, must be almost, indescribable?
Just for clarity though, I don’t think you are a Troll, but I do wonder what you personally would make of chisler’s posts, if someone else had written them, because at times you do come across as an intelligent adult, albeit with some sociopathic tendencies .
Unfortunately for you, your root problem seems to stem from some previous grievance, that you have with Graham Clarke, so anyone else that gets in your way is merely collateral damage.
So whilst we all await a much anticipated RNS, I can only hope that sometime soon you get some closure from your BB therapy, and manage to talk yourself down from the ledge, as sadly I don’t believe anyone else will bother.
Well Shareseeker10, you certainly like to start with the light blue touch paper question , at a time when the rest of us had just about finished our speculation on whether ESIA approval could take place in Q3 - still a week to run, so it could still happen ;0), but if it does hinge on Government involvement at any level, it is looking very unlikely IMO.
Personally though I think that rightly or wrongly, we are overly fixated on the approval timing at this moment, even though I agree that it is a blocker on the critical path to Finance, it isn't currently preventing the project from moving forwards. The BoD are looking at a project plan that has a major achievement milestone of mine construction starting before the Eof Q4 2021, which is still achievable, so long as all the other streams are progressing to their necessary timelines. Obviously there must be a cut off point between now and then that the ESIA has to be approved by, to allow the other streams to complete. My belief is that until the Bod know that moment is about to pass that they do not need to issue another update RNS. but I will be overjoyed to have some more concrete information asap.
CLINT1971, you may have spotted this by now, but on page 38 of the report there is a section labelled, 'Multiple monetisation options for HCl', which briefly covers some possibilities, but I'm sure the SOP FS will do a much more in-depth analysis, hopefully including sounding out OCP on what they might be interested in as they currently import and use SOP at their large export-orientated NPK fertiliser blending facility at Jorf Lasfar.
It's an interesting source Audible, I like these four as well:
https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2021/09/344540/moroccos-akhannouch-announces-rni-pam-al-istiqlal-as-government-coalition
https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2021/09/344480/rni-pam-istiqlal-confirm-local-and-regional-alliance
https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2021/09/344402/nabila-rmili-asmaa-rhlalou-fatima-zahra-mansouri-moroccos-female-mayors-take-over
https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2021/09/344555/morocco-among-best-investment-destinations-in-africa
Hopefully all signs that business as usual is finally returning, but with a top to bottom unity?
Hi CLINT1971, if you haven't seen it already, the Shore Capital report from September 2020 provides a lot of SOP related analysis in two main sections starting at pages 35 and 58 - see the PDF on the Emmerson Website:
hTTps://www.emmersonplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Emmerson_plc_EML_House_Stock_at_4_3p-1.pdf
Obviously though, we are expecting a significant increase in detail and analysis when the SOP FS is published - which should be around about now, if the various issues in Morocco haven't delayed it unduly . :0)
Whilst awaiting the SOP FS, the Shore capital report contains enough detail to see why all of the Khemisset MOP is unlikely to be converted to SOP because of issues like dealing with the quantities of Hydrochloric acid produced as a by product, and exactly how much SOP supply the market can actually absorb without unduly eroding the premium prices. As such the SOP FS should make very interesting reading.
Interesting story and great to be encouraging Ethiopia to help itself, but at the same time bringing on another local customer for OCP - hopefully though they are not selling too much of that sulphuric acid as Emmeron might be needing some of that in three years time.
Thanks for the info StuAFB - I think it improves my understanding of the process, even though it reads like the script of marx brothers film. I must admit that it's a bit difficult to understand how Government oversight and control is exerted though, as I understand there are 16 Wilaya in Morocco, so whether only those in the areas affected get a vote on this isn't totally clear, and presumably the term president and chairman are interchangeable?
I must confess that it doesn't seem an arena that a Government Minister would want to participate in directly, but who knows. I certainly can only think of a UK public enquiry scenario as a comparison, but one where a 'panel of regional judges' get to vote on the various issues, and hopefully reach a favourable majority consensus. I'm also assuming that the review meeting led the the list of areas that needed addressing and that the Emmerson team have now submitted revised information and hence that will be the main focus this time around?
Sorry Mr Jinx if have upset you, but I really did think that your question was rhetorical. Surprisingly perhaps I am in the same mind as you in thinking, why are the Ministers needed at the EEC Evaluation meeting? What isn't clear to me is if any of the previous Ministers attended the EEC review meeting, Clearly though, unless any of the new Ministers appointed are technocrats with significant previous experience in the areas covered by their Ministry, any decisions the Ministers make will have to be dependent on the briefing advice of their staff and advisors, and on the policies of the new Government (which fingers crossed, they won't be in the process of re-formulating, to meet the aims of the incoming Administration). Hopefully though your most likely scenario won't involve a dramatic change in the Local stakeholders, as previously the Public enquiry process had completed successfully with full support from local stakeholders.
Finally the other unknown if the Ministers are not present at the meeting, then how long once the EEC has conducted the Evaluation meeting, the interval will be, until the actual sign off takes place, and the ESIA approval is granted?
Ok, point taken that you don't suffer fools gladly. So Hillview1, please don't take this the wrong way, but if you have a professional viewpoint, which I don't have, why not contact the Emmerson BoD direct to express your views - you never know they might sharpen their act if you can tell them how?
You are right of course we will have to agreeably disagree at this point, as like you I hope to look back in a couple of years with a high degree of contentment. I do have to say though if you are right about my rhetoric being utter tosh, then we are likely to both be poorer for it, because by your logic, the company is incapable of attracting the attention of more serious investors, and if no one lends a hand to raise the SP before the finance package is finalised, then I fear that the result will be substantial SP dilution, due to the artificially low starting point. So whilst you would be correct in thinking that we are on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to fundamental knowledge of Potash mining, as my first impetus to buy Emmerson shares was a complete uninformed gut feeling, I have since then read just about everything I can find on the project and never once read a seriously disparaging view on it, only question marks raised over the level of risk at various stages. During my research I have seen the stock described as being in the 'sucker' bracket, but I'm happy to agree that that sounds more applicable to me as an investor than to you, whilst on other sites various indicators show the stock as strong sell in the next 4 hours , but predicts it to be a strong buy in one month. Against that background, in a World currently crying out for food and the Potash to grow it with I am clueless as to what will ever encourage anyone else on board, who hasn't already found their way here, unless it is because some kind of third party clamour, shining the spotlight in our direction during that small window of opportunity that we hope will open up soon.
I'm sorry Hillview1 but I'm not quite sure how your 2.5 million shareholding has any direct relevance to your opinion on the on the social media offerings of Emmerson, but of course I applaud your good sense in having managed to accrue such an impressive holding, as I at least share your conviction that it will be money well spent.
Relevant or not though, I am still at a loss to understand what you would have Emmerson do instead? I am presuming that you would prefer hiring a professional PR company provide content, at a time when Emmerson has no actual income, and will likely only attract solid sustained SP increases as the final project de-risking steps are being completed, and the various tipsters and pundits will be falling over themselves to point out how under-priced the shares are against the evident value offered. so doing the PR job for us. At that point we will no doubt be trampled in the rush to own Emmerson shares - and yes I will hold my hands up, I have watched those YouTube presentations a number of times.
So Mr Jinx, getting back to where we believe the question you are asking actually requires an answer? why would Moroccan Ministers (Please note the plural, as multiple Ministries will be involved) want to be present, or at least consulted before finalising a decision that could easily have been taken by the subject matter experts, and civil servants, based upon existing Government policy?
To attempt to answer your question, I am sorry but I have to ask a question back, 'Why would any Moroccan Government Minister want to be directly involved (and therefore able to take credit for), any decision made on the ESIA'? To try to answer this I will refer you to what the Shore capital research paper published 2020 (it's on the Emmerson website for download) page 67 suggests a couple of possibilities:
'A recent socio-economic study conducted by a renowned local academic reported
positive findings: Khemisset will create 2,385 direct and indirect jobs during mine
construction and 760 during operations (a total of 1,500 roles will be created via the
employment multiplier); local GDP per capita should be lifted by 40%; and fiscal
contributions were estimated at 176% of tax revenues generated locally, 5.1% regionally
and 1% nationally'.
And further way to benefit Moroccans by the the stated aim:
'Emmerson is cognisant of the importance of good Environmental, Social and Economic
Sustainability (ESEC) practices. Aside from taking steps to ensure compliance with
Morocco’s rules and regulations, Emmerson is targeting the recruitment of 90% of its
workforce from the local area, and is to adopt a procurement strategy that provides
preferential treatment to locally-based providers of equipment.
And of course that's without even mentioning bringing the benefits direct and indirect of a few hundred million dollars of Foreign investment into the country.
I might be being naïve here but it certainly seems like the unlocking of something the Moroccan voters might notice might perhaps be the kind of thing that the odd Minister would like to be remembered as having some direct involvement in - you know the odd announcement speech in parliament after a few photos for the Newspapers of documents being signed, and perhaps a well placed TV crew getting some footage for the Local News, not to mention the continental African interest.
I know it's only a mere 1% increase in national tax revenue involved and a few thousand well paid jobs, plus some large chunks of additional infrastructure built, but it might just be more desirable to pretend a Minister or three were involved than having people get the idea that the country can run itself? ;0)
You are a caution Mr Jinx, I know that you like a laugh, but I will take the bait and pretend that you actually are serious in asking why a Minister might want to 'attend something he probably wouldn’t have a full grasp of?', (I apologise in advance for the long winded response, but as you are aware political aspects are seldom succinct and to the point). You might as well ask, 'Why does anyone go into politics?', I mean does anyone actually know how to run a country before they try and get elected? Is there some 'how to do it' course they all have to pass before being elected?
Whilst we would all like to believe that politicians everywhere do what they do from some selfless desire to serve the people of the country they love (and I'm sure there are some who believe that, at least some of the time), they basically just want to tell us all what to do, because they know best, and in return want us all to love and respect them when they lead us to a future wonderland that only they could manage.
Certainly I have never seen much evidence of a politician being hampered by not having any knowledge of, or an intimate understanding of a problem, before making a decision - but to be fair, that is often the role of expert advisors and professional civil servants to provide the analysis of an issue, and the management know how to carry out any policy decisions made, which is why ministerial briefs are prepared on every possible area a minister is expected to cover, to enable Ministers to select a preferred option based on the overarching Government policy, which might form part of a manifesto promise? - but I'm pretty sure you didn't need me to tell you any of this, so let's move on swiftly.
(Sorry but my response is so long I have had to cut it in two - I hope that you can contain your excitement until I can load the next part?) ;0)
Does a bit of a company selling itself activity, really bother you that much Hillview1?
If Emmerson made no effort to keep the ball rolling, we would all be complaining that they were being lazy or complacent. I know most of us don't need to be told about this stuff as we have probably already seen it fully reported elsewhere, and in much deeper detail, but even though I can't personally be bothered with Twitter, I know some people who live in it, so really why let it rile you?
I'm starting to lose my grip on this version of reality after glancing at today's trades on this website - curiously they all show as Sell, which personally I find puzzling as I have made a couple of trades today and they were both purchases.
10:47 for £5,040 and another at 13:25 for £2,440 not large transactions, just me 'investing' the dregs of my savings, but curiously on this site they both show as Sell - Obviously someone sold them to me, but I rather thought they should show as Buys. Someone somewhere is altering reality once again?
At the time on the London Stock Exchange ticker they caused minor upticks, but obviously no serious upward trend.
Obviously I can see what is happening, I just don't understand why - perhaps someone can enlighten me?
Well Ideas, I don't think you are the first person to suggest the possibility, but for a country that has set out to actively attract foreign investment, particularly in the mining sector, such a blatant move would at a stroke destroy Morocco's standing in Africa and the rest of the world. Reputations take years to build and a single moment to destroy.
According to the World bank in January 2021:
'On the economic front, the shock of COVID-19 has pushed the Moroccan economy into its first recession since 1995. Economic output contracted by 15.1% in the second quarter of 2020, primarily as a result of the lockdown but also of a sharp reduction in exports caused by the pandemic’s disruption to global value chains and the collapse of receipts from tourism.'
Which is hardly the opportune moment to smash your foreign investment stream.
As for the 'apparent' delay in ESIA approval, just remember that it took two years of work to compile the ESIA, with many discussions, revisions and improvements - if Emmerson couldn't meet the requirements during that process then neither could OCP.
Once Morocco pulls itself together post covid etc we will get our ESIA approval before the EoF Q3 2021, or Graham and the BoD will tell us the reason why, and how we will do any extra work required.
Thanks Makes. Imminent or not at least Graham has re-iterated that Emmerson would be legally bound to report any material change, be it progress or a blocker. To me only four things are important in Morocco this week:
Average number of new infections reported each day in Morocco falls by more than 4,500 over the last 3 weeks, 45% of its previous peak
Morocco has administered at least 35,120,524 doses of COVID vaccines so far. Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that’s enough to have vaccinated about 48.1% of the country’s population.
During the last week reported, Morocco averaged about 304,137 doses administered each day. At that rate, it will take a further 24 days to administer enough doses for another 10% of the population.
Moroccan elections will be about math, not change - The country's national election on September 8 will likely bring a new government. But neither experts nor locals expect it to bring long-promised change.
So hopefully once the dust has settled, the Moroccan Government can focus on our favourite company?
Well Kimhappy, whilst I totally agree that Covid has gone on far too long, I'm sorry to say that it still hasn't disappeared in Morocco
(see) https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/morocco/
You will also note that their vaccination rate, whilst one of the best in Africa is still a projected 80-90 days off of 80% double vaccinated, so fixating on the word, 'imminent', used just before the latest wave of infections struck Morocco, is just messing with your mind. Surely it's better to remember that the Emmerson team hasn't stopped working, so whenever the Moroccan Government can reduce it's focus on Covid, all of the ESIA dependencies should still kick in to meet the 'begin construction before the End of the year', timeline - let's face it Morocco desperately needs foreign investment cash to start flowing again to help kick start the economy. Also worth remembering that Graham has already said that Rupert is not their to work on the ESIA approval.
Hi Makes,
I don't know what you think about Rupert's role for Emmerson, but I have seen it suggested elsewhere that he might be involved in any high level negotiations relating to RNS No. 2586W on the 10th December 2019 .It goes without saying that the potential value of the possible Government subsidies would be worthy of employing his diplomatic skill set. I haven't spotted any mention that this negotiation has been completed as yet, but perhaps someone else has?