Member Info for Onbeyondzebra

I guess that is the question: corrupt or incompetent? In truth I don’t know. When the did the cash box financing they announced in advance that they would do it - i.e. that the sp would crash - 3 weeks before it was completed. They said that they were obliged to announce an equity raise once they had made that decision as a board, even if they hadn’t arranged it yet. In all my years of investing, I’ve never seen a BOD so legalistic (i.e. sticking to the letter of the law even at great cost to the company) that they would release an RNS announcing a raise well in advance. They boxed themselves into a corner and could only agree it with ‘partners’ on horrific terms, after 3 weeks of the sp plummeting. In other words, they looked like amateurs (or rather scientists trying to run a company) and diluted 90% of the company’s equity in the process. This time around they again played into the hands of their financing partners. Did they not know that a convertible advance in 10 tranches decided by the partners would always turn into death spiral. I did, and I don’t do this for a living. I know that convertible advances have to be done ideally in one tranche - or multiple tranches with fixed prices, not relative discounted prices to the current/dropping sp. So, question 1: do they just have no idea what they are doing and are making it up as they go along? 2. Are they in the pockets of their partners who they are making rich over and again 3. Does it matter either way? For me, no, because I have made money here and will continue to do so because they are consistently bad at financing and I just steer clear when financing season arrives.

I agree with blubay on this one: what is the logic for those saying the company will go under within a year? 1. They’ll be fully funded (as bb said) 2. We’ve seen that some old, but especially new investors coming in, don’t mind that the BOD routinely dilute the company to high heaven 3. They’ll still have an asset that is interesting, exploitable and makes for s good story so is easily sentiment driven. In theory, everyone would want to invest in this company. I do and would, I’ve just always said it’s not the kind of share you can hold for a the long term and it will come good. Your investment needs to be much more tactical and well-timed. I do hope they get to the point where they don’t need to raise new funds - they obviously aren’t very good at it and are being played for mugs whenever they do.

Your three categories are funny and insulting in equal measure. What if you just know a bit about investing, are sharing your opinion (because you’ve done quite well with HE1 and some might want to hear it), just as you’ve learned from others on this board? Apparently everyone has an agenda. I don’t. I couldn’t give a jot if the sp rises, falls or stays where it is. When the new shares have cleared, and I find it to be an opportune time to invest, I’ll jump back in for as long as I think it will rise, then I will sell up and watch it drop with interest looking for my next opportunity. As for “LTHs”, I can only shake my head. Anyone that’s stayed in for the last two years owns roughly 2-5 percent of the company that they did when they first invested. That’s the reality of mass dilution. Presumably, everyone wants to make money with their investments. That means not being invested when it goes down and being invested when it goes up. But those who unabashedly ascribe to this fundamental truth of investing are considered ‘traders’ at best, and ‘manipulators’ at worse by those who have lost most of their capital.

It would be an opportunistic entry point IF you buy after the glut is cleared. .20 is just you (or anyone) guessing. It’s dropped from .90 to .35 on 20-30% of the new shares scheduled to enter the market. Also, at some point the rocket squad will realise that this is only going in one direction and will sell up, which will speed up the descent. On this trajectory it’s going to find a bottom in the .0? range. No intelligent investor would try to catch this falling knife.

They don’t need Louise82 to crash the sp! Those who are holding and hoping have no grasp of what’s happening here. The best news in the world would not move the sp upwards, as it would just be heavily sold into. Do a little research as that exact scenario played last time when tonnes of HE1 shares swamped the market. In that case there was interest in those shares so we saw sky high volume, with no notable sp movement for days, then the sp shot up when they were gone. This time, it’s being dragged out over a year. There isn’t the volume to eat through the new shares, so there’s only one direction that the sp is going to generate interest. Those who are talking about this reaching the .20s are quite optimistic. I’m fairly sure we’re headed to .0 something. But, on the upside, with that final RNS that the 10 tranches has bee converted, all those with a brain will flood back in and the sp will start rising then.

7-9p two years ago. Is anyone seeing a trend?

I don’t know The-OG, maybe the advantage of listening to contrarian views in this echo chamber is that you might have saved yourself loads of money? It’s immaterial if it rises in a year; the point is that if you sold when you were warned to by those who have been there, done that with HE1 (and dare I say may know a bit more than you about both the company’s BOD specifically, and AIM investing more generally), you would be holding at least 3 times the number of shares that are currently sitting in your account. Then if and when it does rise, you actually make money instead of just hoping to break even. You call them traders (or gamblers which is funny), but the reality is that anyone that holds and hopes a fledgling company while it’s transitioning from an explorer to a producer is the gambler and will lose most of their money. The game is to hold at the right times and sell out at the dangerous times to protect your capital. If you didn’t get that memo, reflect on your shortcomings as an Investor, rather than blame those of us that actually make money.

Brentw1: I never said they hold onto the shares. But as they walk the share price down they are acquiring exponentially more of the company with each conversion (i.e. death spiral financing). Imagine, for instance, they take it down to .07, or .007, what percentage of the shares in issue would the last 1million conversion buy you?

Most of the company is the answer. And I agree, the outcome comes very close to a very successful short: everything is in your favour, but if you push your luck too far you kill the company and you’re left with a bag-full of useless shares (or the shareholders take the BOD to court as they did with HUR). Even though nothing is stopping them from doing so, I don’t think for a second think they’ll bring it down quite that far. After all, this is a rinse-repeat strategy; if they take it too far this time around then they can’t pull off the same trick in 12 months when they next run out of cash, and want to line their mates’ pockets. Last time Lorna diluted the shareholding by 85% I think (meaning that 100% of shares in issue on Monday accounted for only 15% of the shares in issue on Tuesday). On this trajectory, it looks like this time it will be more. What they think is pushing their luck is anyone’s guess, but I’d be shocked if they don’t dilute it at least the same amount in this financing round. In other words, who would keep their money in a 3% savings account if inflation was running at 95%. But all this seems lost on the Pubcrawls of the world, who keep thinking his Monopoly money will be worth something if he holds onto it and comes back 5 years from now.

I was curious at the beginning if Lorna’s mates were going to play it straight up and convert - and make their money on the rise - or conversely walk the SP down to nothing and basically take +95% of the companies shares for a measly 10 million. Well, we have the answer. I guess it would have been what I would have done in their case but, like a short squeeze, the risk of doing that is that you own a distressed company at the end with no way to offload cheap shares. One thing is for sure, the only RNS that will save the SP, if not the company, is that all the Notices of Conversion are completed.

How anyone can think this is anywhere near the bottom with up to 90% of new shares yet to flood the market is beyond me. If you accept this, and believe in the company, there are only two tactically sound choices: sell now and buy lower or keep averaging down. The debate that LTHs should be having is which of these two is the better play. Instead, it’s pie in the sky talk about forward selling and hoping that the worst days are behind them because some miracle has happened or is about to happen.

Read my history if you want to know how I’ve done it. I explained exactly when I sold out last. I also tracked trade by trade what I did in the lead up to the last wipe out (down to .2) and where I sold 2+. Just because you just showed up to the party doesn’t mean everyone else on this board did. I’ve been making money on HE1 for two years. As for the last few months, I wouldn’t have touched it with a barge pole, as a huge placing was always in the cards. Again… as I stated on this board. I’m not always right in my investments, but I’ve called the last 6-7 big swings here over the past two years and that’s why I’m up big despite most under water. As I’ve always said, if you mimic the trades of Lorna’s mates, and protect your capital whenever things look dicey, there’s loads of money to be made here. I’m sorry if this on the back of those who don’t do their research, or treat investing like sports betting, but them the breaks.

Insults don’t bother guys. I’m up over £60k with my strategic HE1 investments. How are you guys doing? Warren Buffet was wrong, investing is the process of transferring money from the not so bright (in this case ramping hold and hope LTHs) to the slightly more switched on. In truth, I’m wholly grateful you guys exist. It’s your hard earned in my bank account.

Told you two weeks ago, I got my AI to carry out a detailed model of how this raise would play out and it suggested re-entering between .30-.35 - if there appeared to be any resistance at that level. Looking at how things have progressed with only a tiny amount of new shares converted, I think it will fall much lower than that. The last time they raised there was sky high sentiment and they churned the shares flooding the market pretty quickly. The key though was we all knew where the bottom was. This time the sentiment couldn’t be lower. It’s plain to see the BOD, far from looking after retail investors, have gone out of their way to screw LTHs (again). I don’t think I’ll buy again until all tranches are converted or the conversion window is closing. This will likely be a long old trek but I’m watching with interest. Once it’s over it will be all to play for but there may well be a .0 before any number in the SP.

Despite being accused of always having a pessimistic view (I’d like to think of it as realistic and educated), I do think it will jump back. This company has a feel good factor associated with its usp, and a potentially large upside. I’m also always shocked by how the new wave of investors seem to do no research as to what happened to the old wave(s), mitigate against those risks, and protect their capital. At least four generations of LTHs got completely wiped out and I suppose this will make five if it goes low enough. Despite what some people try to convince you of (that there are good fundamentals), this is a purely sentiment driven play and there will always be new investors to pile in and old investors who are keeping an eye on it. What frustrates me is that with the last dilutions, you at least knew where the bottom was so that you could just buy in at the rate of the placing (effectively becoming one of Lorna’’s mates). They found a way this time to make sure that only those in the know know how low it can and will go. Once it reaches that point it will start to climb. It might .48p it might be .07p. There is money to be made if you know when to be in and when to be out. That bit has just become a lot harder…

I disagree. No serious investor would touch it on this trajectory. They’ve set it up so the sp is squarely in the hands of the institutional investors. That lot could walk it down as low as they want, and it is in their best interest to do so to an extent, as that way they get a bigger slice of the pie. How far they want to push this death spiral is anyone’s guess. I told you on the day of the announcement that this could go into the 30s and that’s where I would buy - only if 90% of the dodgy shares have already been converted (not 10%). I’ll say this again to the newbies and hopeless cases. There’s more than one way to make money on the stock market. Selling now if and when you think it’s going to keep dropping means you can buy the exact same number of shares in a couple days/weeks and take your partner out for a nice dinner with the money that has suddenly materialised in your trading account Imagine how much money would currently be in your account if you sold on the day the dodgy RNS landed and the writing was on the wall. .That’s when all the bright one’s sold - if not well earlier when it was obvious that massive dilution was on the cards at some point this summer. As I posted, I sold up last at 1.12 heavily suspecting this opportunity would come. I could build a loft extension with the money I’ve saved, if I was happy to buy the same number of shares now (which I’m not).

There you have it. Don't want to count chickens, but looks like we're well into our recovery pattern. Macro shocks aside, we should be into the 240s by early next week (just like the AI modelled). And that examplifies the risk of a dividend swerve: those waiting for it to hit 220 or lower to re-enter may be waiting a while.

It has to do with risk tolerance. In this case, selling the day before (after getting the rise in the week before) and buying in on the drop (called 'dividend swerve') is more risky if you don't get fully back in and you miss both the dividend and the recovery. It's extremely common in Canada/USA investing because taxes on dividends are much higher than capital gains (and there isn't always the ISA wrapper to shield PIs). For instance, if 224 is the lowest it will go, then you'd miss out on +10% gains if you're sat there waiting for 220. Buying in a huge amount last week (strategic), or even better the week before (lucky), and taking the rise, the dividend and the recovery (a classic 'dividend capture') is the less risky play - with an easy short term upside of 12-15%.

Wow. It’s not an AI opinion; it’s just showing historic trends that you can see yourself if you check the charts. Other than last April, HBR dividend almost always recovers to pre-dividend levels within 6 days. Of course, who needs to look at historical data when you can just make up a new rule (e.g. “ shareprices slowly drift downwards for weeks after ex-div”) that has no relation to the real world.

I work in AI. The deep research function is a lot more consistent then the normal interface. I'm not saying it's right, but it isn't just making it up as it goes along and is generating probably consultancy grade reports. Especially if you can be creative with your prompting and squeeze 12-15 minutes of processing time out of it (vs. the half second you get with a normal query).

Did an AI deep research on exactly this topic. Excluding the last dividend (which was distorted by a brutal quarterly report), HBR/Premium typically recovers its ex-dividend drop within 2–5 trading days. The one exception was September 2023, where it took 6 days to fully rebound.

There are always macro variables in play — oil prices, Ukraine-related developments, etc. — but my view is we’re seeing the early stages of a broader recovery and possible re-rating. If that holds, I suspect only a partial drop on ex-div day (finishing maybe 2–3% down). The AI completely agreed, but it is rather sychomantic, and often reminds me that I'm a rare trading genius.