Member Info for Onbeyondzebra

AI = AIM

Been reading the chats with interest: I think there's not enough attention on ES and their takeover playbook. Endless extensions are not a sign of cold feet or due diligence, but a masterclass in psychological attrition designed to create uncertainty and shake out institutional and retail investors who get tired of waiting. We are currently right on schedule for their MO.

Just spend 10 minutes with AI reviewing ES's acquisition of Good Energy and make your own mind up. The real shock here isn't ES being a ruthless buyer; it's how easily Cyan's leadership capitulated at bargain-basement prices. They just had to follow Good Energy's response to extract at least some value out of the company.

I don't have enough skin in this to get you to 5% but I have seen retail investor revolts work when an AI BOD tried to give the company away for a song (see HUR). Institutional investors selling out - rather than siding with retail investors - does not bode well for any challenge.

Automotive semis is coming out of a long down cycle. I suspect ENSI will pop on the space trade (interesting last two weeks you already saw it mapping movements up and down of AST and Rocketlab), but I suspect the automotive wing will be the more reliable revenue underpinning the company. At least until it's bought out by Amazon/Intel/Siemens/OneWeb...

DB: As two early adopters who went in hard, how are you dealing with the fact it's now taking up too much of your portfolio. From last year I promised I wouldn't sell a share of ENSI and AMD until they were up 7-10x. Harder to stick to that when both are taking up 30% of my portfolio and soon to be half of my portfolio. Do you have a trimming point for Ensi or are you going to stay strong till the 500-1000mcap... or more likely buyout at 400-500mcap?

Where can this go? For many of us, this is our highest rated moonshot. Not so much in that it’s a long shot to scale, but that we all envisage multiples of this market cap I was aggressively accumulating from Oct. to the last raise, and I’m on a strict no skimming policy until it reaches a 350-500mil market cap (if it gets that far before being bought out). While you need to factor in some dilution (they do have a history of controlled raises when taking on big contracts), and therefore the math needs to be adjusted, I’m estimating at least a 5 bagger from the current sp for those that are patient.

With this level of volatility (and upward momentum), I don't think it's worth trading. It's very easy to miss the next leg up... e.g. exactly what is happening today. I trade when a share is acting like a metronome, and I can set my clock to it. I don't trade in these cases where I have real confidence in a short or medium term re-rate. I've been in and out since the early 2000s and I'm confident these valuations are wrong. You can argue that the intraday point of 33 from 3 months ago was correct considering what that German rail news meant for the company's medium term prospects. You can argue that 60s from exactly a year ago is the right valuation - not least as a it's a stronger, more stable, more cash generative business now then it was then. What is certain is that the high 20s is not where the sp should be, and all serious investors are just sitting here patiently, topping up on the dips, and letting it re-rerate.

Wow. Really? Little is the operative word. I’m waiting for my 5-10 bagger. On this one I’m serious. Like with AMD the past 18 months, I’m on a strict no trading, only accumulating on dips, policy.

I’d have to be pretty sure to short, as there’s effectively an unlimited amount you can lose, and it costs money to hold shorts. In no scenario would this sort of recovery play be anywhere near that list. They’ve reduced or are negotiating an exit for the low margin parts of the business and have handed the reins to the people that actually know what they’re doing. This is only going in one direction over the coming months and years…

Not so silently (RE: Shorts: 26 Mar 2026 09:52 & 26 Mar 2026 14:14)

"....I think the company's actually in a much stonger position now than it it was then. It also hits enough of these market weaknesses above for me to accumulate now."

Agreed, once you're in at a good entry position there's no rush. As retail investors the only advantage we have is we can afford to be patient. I have this marked down as a two to three year hold (below 20 average in all accounts), with some profit taking near 40p...whichever comes first. Looking at the fundamentals and moves they made the last 6 months, this was never a distressed company - even though that's what the charts were showing.

James, seemed it was just you and me that kept our nerve when it was at 17p. As it was the end of March, even filled up my wife's ISA and the kids' Jr ISAs with what was left of their allowance. I'll say what I said then. It's a much more solid company today than it was 12 months ago when it was at 62p. 17p was a gift from ol' orange face. I'll hold the lot until it's in the high 30s (up 100%) then start triming till I've got a chunky free ride. Might take a year or two to get there but don't actually think it will be that long once the earnings reports start showing they've turned the corner.

I do have a PhD (or rather DPhil) in this kind of stuff and I can propose a couple things: 1. Leverage is the main - and possibly - only problem to be resolved here. 2, This can be overcome if they continue to divest their loss making (or disposable) wings and lean into the money making parts… which they seem to be doing. IAG was in basically the same position not so long ago 3. Firepower’s an idiot who gets emotionally involved in his investments and, specifically, can’t let go of his loses. As you can see, it’s a rather toxic mix.

As I said, the company’s in a much better position now than it was when the sp was in the 60s. That means a multi-bagger is very possible from this point. It can obviously go in the other direction too… No one is arguing it’s not a binary bet to be put in the speculative part of your portfolio.

Ii passed through ENSIs retail offer two weeks ago. Also AIM with a similar mcap with a compressed timeframe (though not this compressed).

Any platforms showing the corporate action yet?

My invesrtments have significantly outperformed the market (including S&P 500) by exactly betting the market doesn't have a scooby. In order of frequency it's: over-reactionary to short term catalysts, euphoric & risk averse depending on macro conditions - while dragging companies where there is no direct impact into market selloffs, has a long memory for the wrong metrics, has a blind spot for companies that are scaling and have a flat, or nearly flat, EBITDA, don't prioritise FCF nearly as much as it should. I've been burnt with MCG and sold out at 65.00 for a not insignificant loss. I think the company's actually in a much stonger position now than it it was then. It also hits enough of these market weaknesses above for me to accumulate now.

I don’t see all the doom and gloom. I like the moves the company has done over the last half year. Leverage aside, which still needs to be fully planned out, I think they’ve turned a corner. Love the valuation at these prices and have been hoovering them at sub-20 the last 26 days or so. I get higher fuel means higher running costs and possibly interest rates but no one will be talking about either in 6 months. Then again, what do I know, I’m just the idiot who was loading up on O & G stocks the last 18 months, when everyone else was dumping them.

An AI Deep Research exposed some perspectives I hadn’t thought or seen here. It seems that the 75% threshold might actually be tough ask and that ES is probably sweating. It said if it does fall through for any one of the reasons it could (books aren’t in order, or any one of the thresholds a vote has to pass, regulatory bodies rightly smell a rat) than ES can do a lot of damage with its convertible credit notes (effectively swamping the market and tanking the SP). I’ll vote against on principle, as the BOD could have asked for at least 50% more - ES has form to negotiate much higher in this range - but it’s clearly a stitch up. Though I’m not a LTH, have a modest holding, I’ll stand with the LTHs and urge everyone else to do as well.

I've seen this play out before and the sale usually goes through. Wondering why there isn't more buying at these prices for a 'quick' (in relative terms) 30% gain if the BODs unianimous recommendation goes through. Put another way, what's stopping us retailing investors from buying more if this gap (current sp to offer price) widens? From my end, my average is 6.9p and, on principle, I really hate averaging up... =P

Nothing really much left to short; it has an mcap under 2 million. I could sell my terraced house and buy up all the shares in issue.

Agreed. Been tracking this for months, and was interested in investing following what I thought would be a necessary raise due to low cash. The end of year results all but suggested that. Hi risk, but exactly fit my profile. Good product, in the scaling phase, already getting sector recognition; with a bit of luck and the mcap moves to hundreds of millions and you have a 3-5 bagger. I guess luck was the key bit. Genuinely, sorry for those caught up in this. In almost every respect it was a cracking investment.

As already noted: much more likely the buying is just shorts exiting. They called it right but if the stock is suspended, they lose everything. Just like in the last hour of the Big Short...