Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
RJ’s a d i c k, simple as. Manipulates investors to follow him of a cliff and then, when it suits him, he spouts the same stuff that he was calling lies and deramping five minutes before. Bin him like everyone with half a brain has done.
I don’t think the tender offer is meant for UK investors with ISA’s and SIPPs. I don’t think there are ISAs in the US (there certainly aren’t in Canada) so this is just a mechanism for North American investors to avoid quite onerous capital gain taxation on dividends (seeing as the yield is so high). My brother in Canada (who’s a trader) routinely sells before the ex-div and buys back in the morning, thus effectively taking the dividend in the form of extra shares and avoid capital gains.
If you want a practical example... look at PFC. It was ridiculously shorted, and the assumption was that you would be a short squeeze on the rise following positive RNS. What you saw instead was a number of shorters just doubling down (opening more shorts rather than covering shorts). The result was that following a temporary rise, the SP falls back to it's starting point, except the shorts have made money on the average up.
Thanks for the explanation.
Again: the bigs don't typically short AIM (much too volatile and there is a risk of 70% rise in a day). Ergo there won't be a short squeeze here. If anyone did short an AIM stock like HUR, they would simply 'average up' (i.e. take more shorts) on the sharp rise and they'd be making money as it deflates - as it is doing now.
Joe: helpful to know... thank you.
Regardless if I get back in, good luck to you with this one; HUR was ridiculous the way it played out.
None of the bigs short AIM. And if they did, they would have used to opportunity to 'average up'... and they would have already have done well this morning.
Mcadder: every move was tracked. Read my history if you care enough. I swear I filtered you weeks ago. My mistake...
RP2020: come back and talk to me once you've made what I've made on this share. From what I can see, you're on a pathway to likely being wiped out. As I said, fill your boots and we'll compare notes at the end of February.
Skippy: ready my post below. Helium is exactly up my alley, and once I believe the company is viable and at it's lowest SP I would consider investing again (though admittedly probably not with this BOD which has proven itself to be trustworthy). My question is why would I invest today, when all the data suggests it will be at a fraction of this sp a month from now. I tracked my trades in this company quite transparently on this board and am up £17K since October and over £62k since the company IPO'd. Admittedly I didn't take advantage of (what would have been for me) the 27% rise today, but the risk reward wasn't right. The problem on AIM boards is that many can't separate identifying a company to invest in and tactically executing that investment so that you make money. There are a lot of company's that I like, and that I track throughout the day, He1 being one of them. I think anyone buying now on the spike, knowing that a placing is coming in a couple weeks, is likely to get trapped and wiped out. I make money here because I don't unnecessarily put my capital at risk.
Joe: That is the only hope for the company (the SP rocketing before February), which would allow a placing to be viable. Look at HUR (or ANGS) for comparison. Discovery confirmed, SP went up 3-4x, which allowed a placing of several hundred million in the case of HUR. It did mean everyone got spiked with the placing announcement - though everyone seemed happy enough. It did allow the company to continue with plans to transition from explorer to producer.
I've still never seen an instance where early investors do well from holding throughout the process. I reckon JH made the right call at selling at the peak today. You'll always have a chance to dip back in. I also think the pathway to viability is extremely limited, here, but we'll see.
Blisfful: Finally, someone with brains asking the right questions. Watch Lorna's interview from the beginning of January. Next in the pipeline, directly after the drill, is... you guessed it: a placing. The SP will be .03 by March (if the company is still trading). It's future looks like this:
- Great results get confirmed: placing, and likely another 90% dilution. They'll need millions of £. It's not rocket science, pull out your calculator.
- Turns out not commercial: no placing and curtains
This isn't even an interpretation, it's been all but confirmed by the company.
But, you're all adults, so fill your boots at these bargain prices.
It's not going to hit 1-2p ever mate. You should have a word with yourself (and probably a financial advisor).
I'm still waiting for the 1-2 p that the rampers were promising. We're up 20% on the placing price (on the best possible fabricated news) and it will likely finish the day below that. As I said, it would always be a restricted rise with a real chance of getting spiked. On the upside, the BOD still have time to change the company name to Hydrogen 1 before the next (promised) placing in February.
that’s an interesting interpretation of marxism. =/
as for my agenda, i’ve explained that i’ve historically found some of the more considered posts on here informative and valuable (to the extent that it shifted my view) and wanted to reciprocate. it would seem i would have something to offer, as i do have a phd in this (and teach finance and economy at the university level). i’ve also called every shareprice movement correctly since november (i’m 6 for 6 and, i suspect, soon to be 7 for 7).
things have changed recently so i will be taking a step back. there were always the thoughtless rampers that just wanted to have their opinions spouted back at them, but the board overall used to be more balanced (with different, well considered, interpretations being pooled). it seems to me that the **** has bubbled to the surface. everyone seems drowned out by those same idiots that were proven wrong time and again at the end of the year, and seem intent on reproducing exactly the same mistakes. ironically (or perhaps unsurprisingly), the ones who’ve had to open a new ‘tranche’ because they can’t stomach to look at their previous investment, are the ones attacking any contrarian view .
so, for all those that contributed (joe, trek, lw [minus the incessant repetition] etc.), it was fun! for rj, turbot et al., i hope you spare a thought for me - even just for a moment - when you’re wiped out for the second time in two months. =p
Turbot: You seem to be trying very hard to convince us that you’re content in all aspects of life. From my experience, it’s quite rare to find a happy and content schmuck who loses money hand over fist making bonehead investment decisions. It’s much more likely that, in chasing rainbows , you’re trying to make up for something missing, or inadequate, in your life. But let’s leave that for you and your therapist (or, more likely, urologist) to sort out. As others have said, you really do seem like the worst kind of turd, and so for you mate I say fill your boots! I’m sure you can afford one more top up.
As for the comparison with LW... that is kind of funny. It would suggest that we have one very schizophrenic individual. I seem to remember telling everyone to sell at 6.8 while LW was still long. I also had quite an elongated spat with him/her that ended up with me filtering him. But, sure, go with that theory - though it does bring you precariously close to RJs sort reasoning (everyone disagreeing with him: 1. has multiple IDs, 2. is paid to bring the confidence level down (as though they board needs help with that) and 3. is some sort of creepy crawler that has come from under a rock/box. A general rule in life: try to be as little like RJ as you can and you might make money, your wife will share her bed with you and people will talk to you at parties.
Turbot
Of course you don't want any dissenting views. Don't want to interrupt a man from his echo chamber. Though...I would have thought, for all the usual-suspects/LTHs here, you may have gleaned that listening to the same 5-6 voices telling you that your investment is going to double and triple overnight (without giving any reasoned argument why that's the case) does not actually make it so. Apparently, you need another hard lesson. The point keeps being made - not by me - that the lack of humility here is startling. Most of you banging on about doubling you money today lost loads of capital in November and were proven to be wrong time and again with you assessment. And, yet again, you want to silence those that were proven to be right time and again.
As for me, feel free to filter me if you don't want to hear what are likely to be the hard truths. I have invested, and am willing to reinvest, in the right conditions. HE1 was one of my main money makers in 2023. I'll effectively be taking the family to Orlando in February on the back of the very profitable and predictable up and downs that I traded to death. I'm here because, amongst the sea of not vey sophisticated posters (like you), there are one or two that add value (be they invested or not invested, long or short) and help me to form my opinions. For them I post. For the rest, take what you will from someone who has made money on this share and mapped - as closely as I could in real time - all the moves that did make me money. For those: I had a tiny amount of exposure (with a .22 average) and sold up at a tiny loss (at .21) once I saw Lorna's interview from last week. For those that have more than they can afford to lose invested, I suggest you watch the interview; it's enlightening.
“I think you are spot on with this - talks of 5/10 bagging are pie in the sky . There is a different type of investor here now - don’t give a 💩about the project - & most will be out before results . I don’t see this rising much even on decent results.”
I haven’t heard anyone saying anymore they are planning on holding til commercial production. All the proud LTHs had their fingers burnt and are now just chasing loses. We also have some geniuses who think just because we’re at an all time low it must surely go up from here. Of course, if everyone is planning the same thing (to bail out on the news) it’s probably not a very good plan. In the best case scenario, we’d be talking about a very short and fast spike, which will quickly turn negative. But… hey ho, though I think the risk reward calculus has changed (and we are now in uninvestible/untradable territory), we are all adults here and can make our own decisions.
“If” is the question. In terms of gambling, I think you could fabricate much better odds on the next round of FA cup games.
The reason I’ve pulled out even my “I’m sure I’m going to lose it but I like a punt” money is because I’ve never seen so many PIs itching to sell up on a “commercial discover” is to be announced. It seems everyone’s plan is the same: to sell on the spike and try to get out whole before the next placing is announced. That’s not even taking into account the billion or so placing shares that I suspect still need to be shifted. If that’s everyone’s plan then I suspect it’s going to be a very disappointing spike… “IF” there’s a discovery. And, looking at Lorna’s face in the interview, I think even she thought the chances of the “if” happening were pretty long indeed.
Read slowly, one word at a time, and you tend to understand better what a text says. Feel free to also read my history where I tracked how I made a 45% return in October to November on HE1 (over £17k profit). I explained in every instance why I was buying a selling and, indeed, it was buying strategically when the price dropped (for stupid reason) and selling when everyone was buying when the price had recovered (just as I said below). Where you are wrong is buying just cause it’s at an all time low - like now. A bit simplistic don’t you think? If it drops because the rig is broken, then buy; if it drops because they released 3x more shares into the market and are about to go bankrupt… then it’s not a great time to buy. I suspect in a few weeks it will be clear who’s right and who’s lost their capital.