Member Info for Onbeyondzebra

The material point is that a lot of switched on investors would be accumulating now if it weren’t for the RNS hinting at a raise. I honestly can’t even make out the type that would buy now, knowing it’ll drop significantly tomorrow, or next week. Some banging on about topping up/averaging down don’t seem completely unhinged, but it’s a crazy move nonetheless. There is no rabbits coming out of hats. This SP will drop to fresh new lows with the dilution, and that’s the time to buy, if you want to be in on the next ride.

everything lw said if spot on. it’s pretty obvious that entry timing with this share is vital, and all objective investors know what direction it’s going in the short term. as for the three chestnuts brought out by the usual rabble:

- for every seller there’s a buyer who are hoovering them up: the volume is low and the sp has dropped 40% in a week (since the big drop). there’s no hoovering happening here. the mm’s have had to drop the price quite substantially to convince buyers to buy the very few shares that are entering the market

- a raise at 2 p: that’s about as hopeful as the tanzanian gov’t getting involved in a distressed minnow. as lw said, it’s also not how placings work. “if” this doesn’t drift much lower, and they get their act together, then they might get a placing price above 1 p… the price it will instantly drop to.

- it’s *******s that people made money here (as the sp got disseminated): i almost doubled my profits in the last drill and i quite transparently explained every move i made. the sp fluctuated three times between the mid 4’s to the mid to high 6’s (and once between 5-6.5). that’s roughly a 50% increase, on three separate occasions. if you sussed the range and bought and sold intelligently, you could have come out of it with at least 2.5 x your investment (not including reinvesting profits or any day-trading). as it turned out, i didn’t do as well as i wanted, and came out of that period with 1.80x investment. these shares (i don’t think it’s an investment) can be quite lucrative, you just have to shelve your loyalty to the company and play off the excitement on one hand, and doom and gloom on the other.

Happy: Sorry to hear this. I’ve learned the hard way that there is money to be made on AIM, but it’s certainly not through holding and hoping. I know it’s hard when you feel your last chance is some unexpected spike, and you have to be in it to win it, but there have been plenty on here (me included] advising temporarily selling up at 6.5 and then, after the drop, at 1.95-2.2. These were all opportunities to build up a much larger stake in the company. I still think a sell last week, and a buy back after the raise, would have got most here out of trouble. After the raise, there will be natural excitement, and I would expect the SP to double from what will be its new low to its excitement “Drill going well” RNS news. The difference between those making money and those losing quite a lot, is that I would sell up at that point and not wait for the duster RNS. It means, of course, I’d miss out on the big payday, if they did strike gold, but I think the chances of that are quite remote. My point with all this is all hope is not lost if you work you shares in an intelligent way. The fact that you can’t bear to look at them, means you’ve missed some very good opportunities to accumulate about 30-40% more shares in the meantime, and a lot more once the raise RNS comes through. DYOR and come up with a plan that works for you, but the one thing that probably won’t help is avoiding the problem.

Certainly an interesting take. I've never seen the SP go up when the float gets substantially diluted, specifically with a company that has a history of randomly drilling holes in the dirt without much success. That said, the unbridled optimism in the face of all the facts to the contrary is impressive, if nothing else.

RP6577… if you disassociate your emotions from the equation, it’s quite clear what you should do considering what you believe will happen. You’ve said you think the SP will drop 20% from here upon dilution. I think that’s a little optimist but ok. You should sell now and buy again once the price stabilises after dilution. This was the advice I gave at 1.95 to those asking what to do. I said the smart move was to sell, because you know a big hit to SP is around the corner, and am honestly gobsmacked that PIs are still holding knowing that is coming. You say, I.45, I say 1.25, but who knows. Whatever it falls to is where you buy in. Then you’ve got a lot more shares for your buck (20-50%+ in fact). Then you decide whether you want to sell tranches on the spikes and buy on the dips as the enthusiasm pours in during the dig. Alternatively, you just get swept in with the enthusiasm and hold tight. If you do the former, and you get a little lucky, you’ll probably break even before the announcement of results. If you do the latter, you’ll need to get a lot lucky, but the reward is higher. Investing is actually quite simple.

Wow Juno, with brains like those you really shouldn’t be allowed near trading account.

JollyyRoger leading the heard astray again. He just can't help himself. He says "As for investing now, I would suggest there has never been a better time to invest." Maybe there 'has never' been a better time, but he doesn't mention whether there 'will be' a better time. For instance, in a week or two when news breaks about the massive dilution and the SP drops by a 30-50% from these lofty heights. Certainly that would be a better time wouldn't it? And as this has been announced in an RNS, he can hardly accuse me of deramping though I'm sure he'll try. What a cynical man he is; he's suffering and wants to drag as many down with him as he can. All new investors that listen to him will be down 30-50% within days of their new investment landing in their account. Misery does love company...

P119

That doesn’t add up. PFC have been upfront with their options and a dilution seems the very last of what they are looking at (sale of non-core assets being the most likely choice). As you said, shorters aren’t stupid and wouldn’t bet it all on the least likely possibility on the table. The problem with shorting is that you have to exit at some point and, when that means buying up 10% of the entire float over a limited period of time, it’s always likely to cause a feeding frenzy and shoot up the SP. Who would want to be shorter: sure, you can temporarily tank the SP, but keeping those gains is another thing entirely.

My gut tells me +10% from here, till the financing news drops. I’ve just seen enough dead cat bounces not to trust my gut.

Good idea Conrad. It’s hard but sticking to the three day rule almost always pays off. Assuming the financing news doesn’t come in that soon, it’ll at least show you where the sp is at (probably +/- 10% from where it is now).

The material point is that it’s amateur hour at he1. You don’t release an RNS saying you need to secure funding. Your SP drops 30% and then that’s your negotiating position. This means it’s likely that it will drop another 25-30% due to the discount they have to give to. I’m all but out till the SP stabilises (as I mentioned a couple weeks ago 6.5 was a great price to get out at). I had no interest in the potential/unlikely 200-400% reward, when there was a guaranteed 30% reward from the week before. The reality that no one wants to hear is that it probably won’t bounce, and will certainly drop on the announcement of financing, so you may as well sell now and buy back in when it’s 20% lower. You won’t make your money back, but at least you’ll have 20-30% more worthless shares.

Half-of-2

You don’t have to be a trader to have an exit strategy. It’s just called intelligent investing. Honestly, posts like yours make me sad. Presumably you worked hard for your money. I’ve yet to see an AIM explorer pay off for LTHs. Even UKOG which got lucky with its very first drill (right into the sweat spot… the great Gatwick Gusher!), still diluted in the end and lost all their shareholders their hard earned. Sure, if you’d sold in the right minute on the frenzied rise, you’d have made money, but if you’d believed in the company and waited for them to get the oil out of the ground (which incidentally they have), you would have lost 90% of their investment like everyone else. I buy and hold, for years even, with undervalued majors. I’m still waiting for IAG to recover fully from the pandemic. I’m up 40%, but I’ll wait forever till I get my 150-200%. There’s just simply no example of a long term play with an explorer that has paid off.

Half-of-2

It’s incredible that you can have a humbling lesson like this and still don’t learn bloody thing. There is no such thing as a long term hold with an AIM company, and less so with an AIM explorer. They try, fail, burn through cash, raise, then do it all again.What was 10 p becomes .10 p…always! You can make money on here, as I have done, but that’s through selling and buying intelligently. The information and advice is out there, but I guess there’s no point trying to separate a man from his investment fantasy, no matter how much money they lose.

i read this morning's trolling with great amusement. despite their blinkered interpretation, there was nothing in the rns that wasn't rehashed from what pfc have said in the past. we now know there was no inside information being leaked, and the shorters knowing something we didn't. the pis were baying for an rns to steady the ship, and pfc did that by putting all of its bad cards on the table and asking if it justifies the current sp.

we asked for an rns saying there's no reason for the drop and this is what a legally watertight version looks like: yes, of course we have some cashflow issues while we close out the legacy contracts and move to the new ones; we'll certainly need some time and (inevitably) to refinance as the big money come in... but please **** off and leave the sp alone already, cause the company is on the right course and doing perfectly fine thank you very much.

i'm glad i topped up on friday. too bad i didn't wake up earlier this morning to do the same at 8:01.

Behind a firewall (https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/542583/petrofac-share-price/) but was able read it by refreshing + screencap. They interviewed a couple investment experts and they think the shorting/market manipulation is not the main driver, rather just a jittery market out of control. I'm holding - and will add once it stabilises. It looks like a storm in a teacup, with an ability to average down nicely.

Come on Swatay… take one for the team!

Just did the same. Ridiculously low market cap; not sure how much lower it can go. Also, every time there was positive news the shorters were seriously caught out. Has never had the hint a leaky ship and, if there were issues, they would be obliged to tell the market. Still think this is just shorters running riot and convincing the weak-minded to sell up. Last big spike in March I did pretty well and fingers crossed the same this time.

"Are you trying to say all the money is gone? Did I say it wasn't ? Did I say it was? I said my expectation that some of the £600k would be gone. I have no clue how much. Would you prefer I told a lie?"

Roger: I would prefer you tried your best to be honest and forthright in your appraisal, so that you aren't again contributing to individual investors making costly investment decisions. You know the drill went weeks over (with staff still on site during the delays); you know there were significant unexpected problems with rig that likely cost (and will cost) a lot to repairs. You know these problems are likely well beyond any unexpected contingency. Yet, you're still suggesting that it's not inevitable that a raise is coming in the very near future. Timing is important in investing, and you are pushing PIs to make timing mistakes in the vain hope the SP goes up slightly in the short term and you feel better about your lot. Now, I don't believe anything written on here makes a jot of difference to the overall SP. It may to individuals though. I just find it ironic that you bang on about share manipulation and trolling, when you're the one knowingly doing your outmost to lead those on this board astray.

Roger FYI: I would consider the post to be ramping (and slightly unhinged from reality considering the significant price over-run from unexpected well and rig problems). For future reference, refer to this post before you say that you don't, or have never, ramped.

FYI: I would consider the post to be ramping (and slightly unhinged from reality considering the significant price over-run from unexpected well and rig problems). For future reference, refer to this post before you say that you don't, or have never, ramped.