Member Info for Onbeyondzebra

I think it’s oversold. Exactly the same thing happened to Barrick (though they obviously have more resources to deal with it), and the damage wasn’t permanent. It is obviously a quick recovery play for those with a tolerance for risk..

As always, an illuminating contribution from RJ. I’m sure I’m the 200th person to suggest: go to Investopedia, type in Market Maker and for the love of God learn what they do, ands what their remit is. Whether you do or don’t I’m not expecting much. An idiot and his conspiracy theories are not easily separated.

Maidit308: “unless you are talking about losses 10 years ago ? in that case why would they stick around from 20p FK knows...”

One of the more ridiculous comments I’ve seen on the board in a while. HE1 is down 89% on the year and 95% down on its highs from last summer. I dip in and out and have been lucky to be out when the placings came (God knows they’ve foreshadowed them well enough), but there are plenty invested here that are substantially underwater.

crustypete: yes, you’re right. this is why i said a *** pack calculation. everyone on here needs to calculate fair value and potential upside as best they can (one would hope). i use historic mcap highs to give me a ballpark from what i could expect (from the current pool of pis). it could of course become a bigger fish and then major investors come in, and all those valuations go out the window (see: greatland gold).

When Hurricane went commercial at it’s hight it an mcap of 1.2 billion (I think). Do the math. But it’s a rollercoaster. Money is made by buying at the placements and selling at high sentiment, and then reinvesting at the next placement. As I’ve said many times, anyone who’s tried to play this a buy and hold is probably down 80%.

assuming it’s good news, figure out the historic high mcap and then do the calculations taking into account the dilution since then. alternatively, a *** pack calculation is .7 x 2.7 (recent high in sentiment minus the placing percentage?

Cupa: “Substance”? That’s an interesting notion for any AIM speculation. But, yes, it’s not completely impossible that they could one day become a HE producer. It’s still not a buy and hold by any stretch, but we’ve seen that it will/should bounce back to its previous mcap, and with some money in the bank, it’s a more obvious buy now then any point in the past two months.

“ I've just been watching L2 this morning and I'm astonished at the relentless buying, people are just gobbling up as many shares as they can and not all small buys!”

Why astonished, it’s what you would expect, isn’t it? Typical AIM discount aside, the company is in a much more secure position today than yesterday (also there is no sword of Damocles hanging over the PIs heads). Anywhere between here and .90 (according to my calculations) is a fairly safe buy.

For what it’s worth, I sold the lot at 25p. I’ve held for 4 years, averaging down all the way, but my gut feeling is that shareholders are going to be wiped out here. I still plan on buying back in at the fraction of what the sp is now whenever the dust settled. I hope for those that are locked in that I’m wrong, but even the RNS seemed to be screaming, get out while you can.

RJ’s a d i c k, simple as. Manipulates investors to follow him of a cliff and then, when it suits him, he spouts the same stuff that he was calling lies and deramping five minutes before. Bin him like everyone with half a brain has done.

I don’t think the tender offer is meant for UK investors with ISA’s and SIPPs. I don’t think there are ISAs in the US (there certainly aren’t in Canada) so this is just a mechanism for North American investors to avoid quite onerous capital gain taxation on dividends (seeing as the yield is so high). My brother in Canada (who’s a trader) routinely sells before the ex-div and buys back in the morning, thus effectively taking the dividend in the form of extra shares and avoid capital gains.

If you want a practical example... look at PFC. It was ridiculously shorted, and the assumption was that you would be a short squeeze on the rise following positive RNS. What you saw instead was a number of shorters just doubling down (opening more shorts rather than covering shorts). The result was that following a temporary rise, the SP falls back to it's starting point, except the shorts have made money on the average up.

Thanks for the explanation.

Again: the bigs don't typically short AIM (much too volatile and there is a risk of 70% rise in a day). Ergo there won't be a short squeeze here. If anyone did short an AIM stock like HUR, they would simply 'average up' (i.e. take more shorts) on the sharp rise and they'd be making money as it deflates - as it is doing now.

Joe: helpful to know... thank you.

Regardless if I get back in, good luck to you with this one; HUR was ridiculous the way it played out.

None of the bigs short AIM. And if they did, they would have used to opportunity to 'average up'... and they would have already have done well this morning.

Mcadder: every move was tracked. Read my history if you care enough. I swear I filtered you weeks ago. My mistake...

RP2020: come back and talk to me once you've made what I've made on this share. From what I can see, you're on a pathway to likely being wiped out. As I said, fill your boots and we'll compare notes at the end of February.

Skippy: ready my post below. Helium is exactly up my alley, and once I believe the company is viable and at it's lowest SP I would consider investing again (though admittedly probably not with this BOD which has proven itself to be trustworthy). My question is why would I invest today, when all the data suggests it will be at a fraction of this sp a month from now. I tracked my trades in this company quite transparently on this board and am up £17K since October and over £62k since the company IPO'd. Admittedly I didn't take advantage of (what would have been for me) the 27% rise today, but the risk reward wasn't right. The problem on AIM boards is that many can't separate identifying a company to invest in and tactically executing that investment so that you make money. There are a lot of company's that I like, and that I track throughout the day, He1 being one of them. I think anyone buying now on the spike, knowing that a placing is coming in a couple weeks, is likely to get trapped and wiped out. I make money here because I don't unnecessarily put my capital at risk.

Joe: That is the only hope for the company (the SP rocketing before February), which would allow a placing to be viable. Look at HUR (or ANGS) for comparison. Discovery confirmed, SP went up 3-4x, which allowed a placing of several hundred million in the case of HUR. It did mean everyone got spiked with the placing announcement - though everyone seemed happy enough. It did allow the company to continue with plans to transition from explorer to producer.

I've still never seen an instance where early investors do well from holding throughout the process. I reckon JH made the right call at selling at the peak today. You'll always have a chance to dip back in. I also think the pathway to viability is extremely limited, here, but we'll see.

Blisfful: Finally, someone with brains asking the right questions. Watch Lorna's interview from the beginning of January. Next in the pipeline, directly after the drill, is... you guessed it: a placing. The SP will be .03 by March (if the company is still trading). It's future looks like this:

- Great results get confirmed: placing, and likely another 90% dilution. They'll need millions of £. It's not rocket science, pull out your calculator.

- Turns out not commercial: no placing and curtains

This isn't even an interpretation, it's been all but confirmed by the company.

But, you're all adults, so fill your boots at these bargain prices.