Member Info for Onbeyondzebra

TK44: You could be right. What's left of the extra 17% could be dumped into the market all at once to drop the sp. That would of course limit their ROI so not such a smart move, and drip feeding into a rise would be a much smarter move to maximise their profits. I would just point you to the ample instances where this has played out in the past with HE1. We've historically seen a slight rise and pull back (like now) until the new shares have been churned through and then the sharp rise, with investors like you coming in (possibly a bit late). I'm not sure what you mean by how markets work: it's always as simple as supply and demand. If there is a lot of demand, the new shares will be eaten up in no time and the sp mildly fluctuates before rising. If there is no interest, or hesitancy about future dilution, it gets walked down - as it was the past couple of months. What we've seen the last 3 months and the past 24 hours is textbook sp movement.

3.75 p

Cenzo, this is what I wrote earlier and answers your question: "The last tranche adds 17% to the shares in issue. I think these can be churned through without too much impact on the sp as it was the not-knowing (and how low can it go) that was hurting the sp. Depending on forward selling the mcap is 34.7m if none were forward sold of 42m if all were forward sold. So the mcap likely in the middle. That means after all the new shares are churned through, the mcap will be 1/3rd of the mcap from Aug. 2024, and could comfortably triple bag from this point (without reaching new valuations). As an investor that always protects my capital, I’ve been on the sidelines until the numbers add up. At this point they do, and HE1 does make a compelling investment case over the next 6-12 months. My guess is it’ll trade within a thin band for a day or two or three then shoot up to 2024 mcap levels." I'll add to that: with the volume yesterday, the rise was definately forward sold into or the sp would have been much higher. The simple reason why investors are buying now is it has the potential to triple bag from this point (high .40s) - without extending beyond its mcap from the summer of 2024. If you think it's going to 1.0 - 1.2p in the next two months, does it matter if you buy in at .47 or .37?

There’s a lot of dodgy figures being thrown around. The last tranche adds 17% to the shares in issue. I think these can be churned through without too much impact on the sp as it was the not-knowing )and how low can it go) that was hurting the sp. Depending on forward selling the mcap is 34.7m if none were forward sold of 42m if all were forward sold. So the mcap likely in the middle. That means after all the new shares are churned through, the mcap will be 1/3rd of the mcap from Aug. 2024, and could comfortably triple bag from this point (without reaching new valuations). As an investor that always protects my capital, I’ve been on the sidelines until the numbers add up. At this point they do, and HE1 does make a compelling investment case over the next 6-12 months. My guess is it’ll trade within a thin band for a day or two or three then shoot up to 2024 mcap levels.

CrustyPete: That’s not right. They are two different mechanisms, the buy/sell action/option registered as either a ‘trade’ or ‘investment’. If they don’t hold the certificate at the time of the action, which they wouldn’t if doing anything forward, the ‘investment’ option is not relevant, so they must ‘trade’ (i.e. buy/sell without holding the certificate). They are not permitted to trade-buy + short, but there’s nothing that stops them from trade-sell + long. By volume, My assumption is that they were forward selling Friday and Monday.

bonzo: it’s a lot of shares at that price, but i suspect it will be churned through pretty quickly. most shrewd investors stepped out till the drama was over and will now feel safe to come back in. *** pack calculation has current mcap now at 43 million, with final 17% dilution about to happen from tomorrow (or whenever forward sold started). volume has been high, and judging by past like for like situations, they can burn through the additional shares pretty quickly.

DB, good read but bad timing (for me). I was in the process of accumulating and the jump today really didn’t help. But, hey ho, it’s AIM; something new and flashy will catch the eye of the heard in the next couple of days and we’ll be back where we stared.

Hi LTI. Just an FYI for your calculations: The AI reports flagged that if it reaches the mcap discussed, you’d need to factor in I think it said 15-20% dilution purely from warrants and options on performance. Then there’s the convertible funding that they arranged that came up in the 2024 RNS which, if not paid off, would result in more (modest) dilution. Just noting your $200 mil mcap target wouldn’t likely equate to 42p.

“Up to September 2025, CyanConnode meets the brief because it is the RF-mesh leader in India’s RDSS rollout, delivering a proven Wi-SUN Omnimesh stack embedded with multiple AMISPs and meter partners, and it now has clear operating leverage to turn a much larger contracted base into profit: the order book is about £180m (roughly 14m modules) including the ~£70m Goa AMISP award, Q1 FY26 shipments rose to about 568k modules versus ~170k a year earlier, gross margin moved to the mid-30s, and new hardware designs have lowered unit costs, all of which helped narrow losses and reduce burn in a softer revenue year while liquidity was reinforced by a premium equity raise and US$15m unsecured convertibles that push any cash repayment into 2028 to 2030. On top of that, the Indian subsidiary has already been profitable and secured local bank credit lines, showing that accessing project-level and regional financing when needed has not been a problem. The two largest risks are state-level execution slippage in partner-led deployments and working-capital strain if receivables lengthen during the ramp, but these would more likely defer revenue recognition and the profitability timeline rather than derail the contracted program. In financial terms, if you are not in a rush this likely comes good, with a base case around 8 to 12 times ROI over five years (market cap roughly £240m to £300m) and a bull case around 15 to 20 times ROI (about £450m to £525m), assuming execution, collections and at least one non-India program become material.”

Lol probably. It was actually a set of 20 different Deep Researches, each making its own consultancy report - so a well over 100 pages in the end. It mainly goes painstakingly through quarterly reports, RNS’s, tenders and, in this case, mentions in Indian media. I’ll add in executive summary for interest:

My AI Deep Research flagged this as one of the three most undervalued picks on all LSE. It’s been off my radar for a while and I was surprised how low it’s fallen - specifically as it’s in the midst of scaling up. As we’ve seen before, these binary plays can go one of two ways. Not for the faint hearted but the risk reward does now seem squarely in its favour. I need to do a bit more digging into the numbers and RNSs, but will likely start accumulated on two of the three picks it flagged.

All good reasons to buy once CLNs have cleared. Any purchase until then is just a one way route underwater. That said, i think day traders have figured there’s a sharp rise after the announcements, and they dump after they get their 10-15%. Honestly, couldn’t be assed. No one said these CLNs have to be converted in a linear fashion.

We’ve all had one. If you’re anything like me, you’ll keep tracking it and might have a feeling when it’s a good time to put the few hundred quid back in. I did that with my first big AIM mistake and I was able to recover my losses - though it took 3 years :/. GL

Good point BB. My argument right when the RNS was made was that they - the CLN holders - could follow multiple strategies, but certainly the fate of HE1 was squarely in the hands of the financing partners, not the BOD anymore. If they are going for maximum dilution, then they just need to sit back and let the uncertainty and negative sentiment reign. Then, with each conversion spread out over time they get more shares (of the company). I’m not sure why you would want to own more of a company that is haemorrhaging shareholder value, but that does seem their approach. They could have done it another way and waited for good news and sold into it… but they didn’t. In short, maybe they are aggressively forward selling (the one ray of hope for LTHs) or just doing nothing and letting negative sentiment drag down the sp. The one thing I suspect is that there is not a lot of willing buyers in this environment, which is why the MM are reducing the sp by double digits a week. That also makes me think they can’t be aggressively converting: I just don’t see the volume or interest in shares to sustain that.

John2015, genuine question: You seem an intelligent chap, what is your thinking with buying now/averaging down? You say “as long as there are no more disastrous fundraisers”. With the way the CLNs are structured, there are 6-7 more disastrous fundraisers that will be activated in quick succession over the next 11 months. Is your plan to just keep averaging down?

Read the RNS - do your own research.

Love this thread; I wish there was a way to save it! The last of ‘head in the sand’ LTHs with a share that should never have any (with a couple sprinkles of realism). Altruism is your answer: we - with a little more experience of HE1 and investing - were warning you to sell at .90 to save you from yourselves. If you had followed this (and we all surely must agree) good advice, you would be free to buy 3-4 times as many shares today with the money you banked. After this clear chastening, you still aren’t getting it. Nobody that sold up cares how low it goes, they only care when the CLNs clear. Only at that point does it become investable, and will it rise.

Also was able to top up sub 25! Just wish I had more cash to throw in. I’m happy to add to my position sub 30 as some capital from investments gets freed up. I’m not overly concerned about the debt levels - well accounted for in the mcap - and think the improved and improving FCF makes this eminently investable at these prices.

Dickies.. agreed. The one thing that makes me suspect corruption (or at least collusion), rather than sheer incompetence, is that with the previous placing and cash box financing there was a fixed price, so PI’s could mirror the placing buys (and therefore take advantage of the ‘mates rates’). The CLN has been rigged so only the financing partners can make money. The effect of this is even the most ardent LTHs will consider selling up and buying later, causing the sp to free fall. The impact is that the dilution is growing exponentially with each conversion. I suspect if this was challenged in court (as what happened with HER) the board would have to half the financing and resign.

I’m here to share my opinion and hear others’ opinions. I (unlike you by the sound of it) have been very successful with my HE1 investments over the past three years. Some (obviously not you) like to share strategies on how to make money. Others (you by the sound of it) just want to commiserate with your inept mates and convince yourselves that you’re not 30% into a death spiral and there’s not one piece of news that could raise this share for more than the five minutes it would take for the news to be sold into. The inescapable truth is that if you’d listened to people like me (that vocally sold last at 1.05-107 and warned again at .90 and .75 that a sp collapse was imminent) you’d be a lot better off. You can lead a horse to water… as they say.