Member Info for Onbeyondzebra

Greg: you keep repeating that, but it sounds arbitrary to me. The ‘new’ shares aren’t going to be sold at below .25 p. Right now we have crazy buying and selling from LTHs exiting or averaging down. I don’t think with the 2/3s of the float not for trading till in significant profit, we have to wait to see what happens when it stabilises. It could be below .2 or it could be .37, no one really knows. My point being, it could go up from her just as easily as it can go down from here. But, if it does go 20% below the placing price - at sub .20 - why would that be a good time to buy? I would think that the last two weeks have taught you that a downward trajectory is hard to reverse and it could easily drop to sub .1. For my money, I think it will hang around this range until the frantic selling/buying is over then start edging up… but it’s a coin toss.

2.4 billion new shares. Not 4.3 billion. Not that it matters much…it’s a lot.

LW: this is an interesting one. It’s not unusual for the sp to fall below the placing price quite quickly. But we are in a unique situation: the preferential investors won’t want to sell below .25, as they’d just be banking a loss. (As Alan Sugar says, you can always sell a £20 note for a fiver.) The LTHs are simultaneously locked in due to such a sharp drop over such a short period of time, so have little to no motivation to sell… other than out of sheer disgust. I think those few LTH sales will probably dry up by mid-morning. Then the question is how much do the prefectural investors need to make to sell: 10%, 25%. With my trading hat on, I would say getting mate’s rates (of around .25-.26) is probably a decent buy for day-trading / short-term hold. What is certain is that any rise would be heavily sold into, which means that a rocket up to 20p, even on a discovery, is now well and truly off the table. I would say 3-4 p is the most this could reach in a best case scenario.

Well… the market reacted the way it always does. At least in this, there is some sense in the world. I hope they wrapped up all their subscriptions yesterday, because it doesn’t look like such a good deal for their ‘preferential investors’ now. They could just buy it for the same price, if not lower, on HL.

Sdg1970: I don’t usually say/think this but, with brains like yours, you actually seem to warrant the losses you are suffering. Best of luck for your predicted exponential rise in the morning. I’m sure you’re right that the market will ignore that the float has tripled, secure in the knowledge that not all the new 2.3 billion shares have yet flooded the market.

Mcadder: that’s one way to see it. The other is that, if the board had acted competently and reputably, the dilution would have been 5-20% of the company rather than 200%. But I see many LTHs don’t want to consider their legal rights as shareholders not to be exploited, and it’s too late at night to keep trying to lead the blind to water. So best of luck with your 2-3 p target. I genuinely hope that you get there.

Over triple the shares in issue… which incidentally haven’t yet reached/flooded the market, and you think the only way is up from here. Wow… some people really shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near a trading account.

Guys, I’m sorry for your losses, but it’s no longer a question of spin. The maths rather speak for themselves: £5.8 million x 400 gives you the new shares needed at .25. That’s 2.32 billion new shares. The previous float was 940+ million shares in issue. That gives you a scale of the dilution that is needed since they themselves tanked the SP (from 3p - .25-.70) by announcing the need for funding without securing it.

I can say it appears to me one of the greatest acts of self sabotage by a BOD that’s resulted in them and their preferred investors/mates taking over the vast majority of the shares in issue of the company and leaving the previous investors with crumbs. That’s my interpretation, and you may see it another way. But what you can’t argue with is the scale of dilution and the fact that next week you shareholders will own accumulatively less then 30% of the company, when this week you owned 100%.

Sorry, yes, my maths was wrong. So they want £5.8 million. This amounts to 2.32 billion new shares. There were under 1 billion shares in issue before (940 million I believe), so mates will take approximately 70% of the company in exchange for £5+ million, leaving all other shareholders to split the 28-30% that’s left.

Let me get this straight. The market cap of the company is around £7 million. They are going to raise £5+ million but valuing the placing shares at .25 (instead of the 3p when they went about tanking the SP). If my calculations are right, friends and family take 95+% of the company and the rest of the investors all left to split a couple of percent that’s left?

FYI: for those heavily invested, HUR tried to pull this off a couple years ago and were quickly brought to court. The ruling was they needed approval at an AGM, which they didn’t get, and the board resigned on mass. LTHs were able to salvage some value before they were bought out this year.

Anyway, my question is: Common practice is the SP drifts down to the placing price in the next trading day. Does that mean it’ll drop to .25 tomorrow? It would serve them right if it did.

Also: where’s RogerJolly - the last I heard from him he was calling me a troll (saying he knew my game) when I urged everyone to sell up at 6.8 p?

While I think the news is positive, in terms of market reaction it’s something of a damp squib. The sp has just recovered to where it was a week and an half ago, and still somewhat below where it was 3 weeks ago. For the company good, for suffering LTH desperate to get out, not the reaction you wanted. It comes down to trust and market sentiment. After years of playing everyone for fools, ANGS has burned through any remaining good will amongst would be punters.

LW: I’m not sure it’s the last throw of the dice if things don’t work out. I’ve seen AIM oilers, for instance, that have raised 20 times from where HE1 is now. You can dilute to infinity, and there’ll always be new investors that think they’re getting in at a great price, whether that’s 5p or .05 p. Eventually they just consolidate the shares and you’re back up to 15 p, though LTHs have precious few of them. Certainly, it’s probably the last throw of the dice for the original LTH, lest the SP really starts running away from their average. The one thing I can say about the board, though, is that they’ve kept something of a handle on dilution thus far. I’ve seen AIM companies issue 300% more shares over 12 months. Lorna, for all her sins, hasn’t done that.

I’m sorry to hear about the difficulty some are in with this share. Everyone has one huge AIM mistake in them. It took me 6 years with mine to get out whole - and that was only because I’d averaged down enough, and when it (briefly) spiked/doubled, I got out and put it all into Netflix the same day, which went up 120% over the following 6 months. Only with that triple bagging over 6 months was I able to get back what I put in over the 6 years. I remember not knowing whether to twist or stick. For those in that situation, my gut feeling is that this will recover to the 3 p that you want after the financing. My advice is get out when you’re given that chance, and don’t get distracted but the talk of the SP reaching 20p, and you being able to retire early. After this round, the financing is going to get a lot harder, and you’ll be looking back fondly at when it was over 1p. As for helium, that was always a pipe dream, and you need to start playing the momentum, and stop chasing rainbows. A good lesson to take into all future investments…

The reason forward selling is a fantasy for the desperate is simple. How long do you think they have to forward sell before a company is obliged to inform the market that they have agreed financing (rather market sensitive information, I would say, that would most certainly affect the sp). My guess is one business day would be pushing it and borderline illegal. The weeks and weeks that this lot believe is beyond ridiculous.

Fair enough but, as others have said, he does at least make some interesting points. On the other hand, I swear I feel my brain shrinking every time I read some tripe about: forward selling, loans rather than raises, the Tanzanian gov’t bailing out the company, funding being unnecessary because HE1 is now in the business of rig letting, etc. etc. The effort that some on here go to rather than look reality in the face is truly astonishing.

roger, you’re really one to talk. as we’ve discussed before, if any investors listened to lw they would have saved loads, and if they listened to you they wouldn’t have a pot to **** in. but you’re somehow the nice guy and he’s the unreliable one leading everyone astray? right…

Ol’ RogerJolly… he’s always good for a laugh. It’s like confirmation bias gone crazy. His underlying belief is that he will make money on this investment no matter what, and will plum all intellectual resources to invent a scenario how that could be the case. If you haven’t been paying attention, children, that is certainly not a good approach to investing and only leads to having no retirement pot and your wife being very cross with you indeed.

Daibelts: no one likes to crystallise their loses. I’m certainly not right all the time. I just think there are a lot of “do I/don’t I” moments in investing. To me, this just seemed like an easy choice. My other strategy, as I’ve stated before, is buy into the hope, expectation and euphoria, and sell at its peak, before the key RNS stating the results. This means that I will always bank a 30%+ rise, and forego any chance at a 300% win. But I’ve been trading in AIM for a while now, and I don’t remember seeing very many (i.e. any) examples of explorers striking gold/helium, so I’m quite happy with my approach.

Dai2belts: Well, typically there are institutional investors and PIs. I was of course referring to PIs bailing, as they are the ones who actually care if the sp halves in a week. As stated at the time, I luckily all but sold out before the fated RNS but, what scraps I had left, I got rid of at an opportune time (dead cat bounce at 3.4 a few hours after the RNS) like all sensible investors. I urged everyone to sell at 6.8 and 3.4 (as I did) and then 2.3 and 1.9 (for those who hadn’t). As I’ve been saying (screaming from the rafters more like), it makes no strategic sense for anyone to continue holding once a vague placing has been announced. This is almost as crazy as those topping up - and trying to convince others to top up - with the Sword of Damocles hovering over HE1’s head. There’ll be a time to buy, but it’s certainly not when a major dilution is coming. Advertising this, without finalising it, is one of the greatest acts of SP sabotage I’ve seen by a BOD in my decades of trading.

He was probably laughing that there were still LTHs following the shareprice all the way down. He was probably thinking: “You could have all bailed at 2.30 when we said we’ll be raising at some unspecified point in the future. Wasn’t that enough of a clue to sell up and come back when we had funding? We’d get our money to keep paying out bloated salaries, and you’d get exactly double the shares, so a win-win all round.” (And he wouldn’t be wrong)