Member Info for Onbeyondzebra

Don’t remember mentioning risk, though I do think for investors it is generally helpful to know what transformational looks like - and I would say most on here don’t. The common question that you hear - “when’s the SP going back to 10p?” - is pretty funny, as it would entail a market cap that is 30% higher than it has ever been. But don’t let me distract you from your rainbow chasing… I’m sure you’ll reach your 20 - 50 p target any day now.

Not sure that’s relevant until a company has earnings to report. All I’m saying is that while it’s in the ‘explorer’ stage there’s a market cap range that He1 fluctuates within (30 mil to 75 mil). If something transformational is reported, then it will logically move outside of this range and re-rate with a higher market cap. However, as long as it stays in the cycle of raising and drilling, the SP will drop relative to the market cap, and there’s no point comparing current SP performance to past SP performance (as seems to happen regularly on this board).

Copied from below for you DrillbitBill:

From a historical standpoint, the SP isn't low at all in relation to market cap: £56 mil. The market cap is pretty standard for the last few years, though it's spiked to £75 mil range at points (which now would be around 7.5-8.0 p) and bottomed out in the £30 mil range. So a market cap at £56 mil - where we are right this second with a SP of 5.85 p is actually par for the course for HE1. Discovery aside, which could go one way or the other (commercial levels is the only thing that will significantly move the needle, and is a very high bar to reach), I do find it surreal that people on the board keep talking about the incredibly low SP, without factoring in the 50% increase in float size over the last 18 months. The market cap may well rocket into unprecedented territory on good news, but expectations need to be modified whenever there is a placement. 10p, which used to be routinely reached, is now unprecedented market cap territory for this company (with just under a billion shares in issue).

From a historical standpoint, the SP isn't low at all in relation to market cap: £56 mil. The market cap is pretty standard for the last few years, though it's spiked to £75 mil range at points (which now would be around 7.5-8.0 p) and bottomed out in the £30 mil range. So a market cap at £56 mil - where we are right this second with a SP of 5.85 p is actually par for the course for HE1. Discovery aside, which could go one way or the other (commercial levels is the only thing that will significantly move the needle, and is a very high bar to reach), I do find it surreal that people on the board keep talking about the incredibly low SP, without factoring in the 50% increase in float size over the last 18 months. The market cap may well rocket into unprecedented territory on good news, but expectations need to be modified whenever there is a placement. 10p, which used to be routinely reached, is now unprecedented market cap territory for this company (with just under a billion shares in issue).

Singhie

I'll naively assume your question was asked in good faith. Remember, you and I are on different poles when it comes to assessing short and medium term SP performance. You have always assumed that it's directly correlated to fundamentals (e.g. liabilities, revenue etc). I think these are only in play with a sound and serious company (FTSE 250 and above), where profits are reinvested into the company and/or passed onto shareholders via dividends, share bbs etc.. ANGS, like many AIM companies, has absolutely no history of either reinvesting or dividends. All work carried out, and assets acquired, were paid for through placings, and all the money they've made has been gifted to the BOD (in the form of inflated salaries), and to 'partners' (through grossly inflated payday loan rates).

I take it from the fact that you stopped including your month by month SP predictions on your flow rates that the penny has dropped, and you also no longer directly correlate gas coming out of the ground with SP valuation.

My view is even simpler: it's all down to sentiment. ANGS's SP lives and dies through how AIMy it is. If it is able to excite the rabble with long tales of fairies, pots of gold and dividends, the SP goes up. Once the excitement wanes two weeks on, the SP begins drifting downwards. In the end, ANGS was quite profitable to me and anyone else that played the up and down game.

Something seems to have changed now though with the acquisition and development of a bona fide money generating asset... and not in a good way. The lenders are taking all the income coming out of the ground and distressing the company just to ensure it gets ever last cubic foot of gas money. Whether it's a lack of prospects, or punters simply not trusting anymore, ANGS' fairy tales (of gas storage this time) don't seem to have much traction.

So what variables will have to change for the smart money to come in? Good question. No serious investor would touch ANGS with a barge pole. Me and Forrest? When we sense the wind changing (because of a Balcombe well test maybe), when the slobbering masses start baying for shares, that's when we'll buy in and prepare to sell at the next spike.

"OB throw in a £500 flutter lol, last of the big spenders I see, times must be hard eh troll."

Yeah, that was kind of the point. If the odds of ANGS recovering to a decent level are this remote, you might as well bet on Brentford to beat Man United at the weekend. At 4 to 1, you'll get a much better return (and probably a much higher likelihood of success) than ploughing more money into ANGS.

Me... play the long game? You've got me confused with someone else. I've been mercilessly trading ANGS for the last 5 years. (Not now of course; it's only going in one direction.) There's precious few companies that I trust to ROI over the long term. I suspect you, me and Forrest are the only ones that came out of the last two spikes well in the money. The only difference between us is I don't wish everyone luck, when I know full well that me making money on AIM - where there are no dividends in play - means that I'm taking money from their pockets. I also don't 'impart' my technical knowledge to boost the SP of a micro-cap company while I'm selling in the background. But hey-ho, whatever floats your boat...

Doesn't really matter. It's now a binary share: good results it goes up a lot; bad results it goes down a lot. In either case, it won't be anywhere near the 4-6p range in a couple weeks.

No they can’t. It’s all conspiracy theories based on a flawed understanding of how mm’s work.

I’m confused BP by you wanting “the majority to do well” here. As you know better than most, that’s impossible. Selling into the rise is effectively taking money from the trading account of one poor sap that bought into the hysteria and putting it into your own account. Once the dust settled, you’ve got funds that are well above the SP and they are underwater. The profit you and I have made trading ANGS is directly proportionate to the loses others on this board are suffering currently. There isn’t a them and us, there’s only a them and you.

Funny how things change in a couple of months. BV and Singhie calling me crazy for selling out at 1.95p and now both daydreaming (or wet-dreaming) about a 2.0p takeover.

If you remember, from my selling point, I suggested that .63 was my target to buy back in. I think at these rates there's a little money to be made (it will likely 'spike' again to a SELL of at least .75) but it all looks very risky and a bit grim now. Tempted to throw a cheeky £500 flutter in, but that's all I would risk.

I've never seen anything quite like this in my years of investing. ANGS has a decent cash generating asset, but has absolutely no control over it or the money generated from it. They've handed over the keys to (not very nice) third parties who are only interested in sucking the company dry (quite literally), and not willing to share any of the income with LTH.

I genuinely feel sorry for those that are locked in and underwater (except BV who heartily deserves this for being a world-class prat). From 6 years experience, I would say ANGS always bounced back from exactly this point, and it was a guarantee that an average down, sell on the spike strategy would get you out of this. But would that just be throwing bad money after good (or worse money after bad... as I think everyone would agree that their investment in ANGS was a mistake)? This is beginning to look a bit like the last days NUOG: death spiral financing, SP reaching progressively new lows, no really viable projects in the near term pipeline to interest the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately AIM rabble, float too watered down to keep going to the well for another placing.

I'm a bit of a risk-taker, so would probably go in heavy when next at a .60 BUY and try to manufacture my way out of it. That's what I did at the previous .70 low before the spike. It will take balls of steel to have a chance for some to escape whole. Two pieces of advice: if it does spike again, don't buy into the euphoria and get out (you'll always have a chance to buy back in when it sinks back to earth); with all AIM punts, have your hand on the sell button... there's no such things as a hold and wait approach that returns value (save a very few, these aren't legit, well-run companies).

Demise of Poly? Apparently according to BB, any company that doesn’t trade in the UK is dead. That’s very colonial of you.

For the rest, who continue to listen to his drivel, there are perfectly fine brokers that charge roughly the same fees as the UK, if not a bit higher (I paid 20 American dollars). Most UK investors settled on Freedom Finance and Halyk. EU residents tend to opt for Freedom Finance Global. As John said, most investors are just chuffed with how things have worked out and are not looking to sell a share as it will almost certainly double from here - with whopping divis coming in the next t-12 months. I just sold the profits on my last top-up and am going to Disneyworld with it. I agree, for an outsider, it’s now a faff to get an international broker to just hold Poly. The real opportunity was to stay invested - when all you needed to do was get your certs and register with AIX. For more info, just join the very well run/moderated telegram group, where all genuine questions are answered. Yes, the same one that BB got banned from…

BB… what the hell are you talking about? Poly gave (at least) 6 months notice for holders transfer the shares to certs, which 95% of investors did. It took one email. That was all they needed to do to then move their shares and double their money (as we told you would happen). Even HL holders could have transferred to other platforms to then get certs. Can I also mention that while we were on this board trying to direct people in this direction, so they wouldn’t suffer the fate you so eloquently described, you were roundly telling everyone to ignore the official advice with about 30 posts a day. Reading between the lines, you were telling investors to sell up for pennies on the dollar, while they still have the chance, and don’t trust the company’s advice. EVERYONE who listened to you lost money; and everyone that didn’t are doing great, with more profits to come. In case you want to track how well we’re doing with our Poly investment, here’s the link (the SP is now double two months ago): https://aix.kz/issuers/polymetal-international-plc/ . Believe it or not, there are other stock exchanges in the world other than ftse.

Every time you look at this, please reflect on the misery that brought to those who were unfortunate enough to listen to an idiot like you! While it’s all fun and games for you (you’ve admitted that sowing dissent is a hobby of yours), that was people’s pensions and savings you convinced them to part with. I would say that you’re the worst kind of scum, but that doesn’t half describe what you’ve done here.

BB. So where was this huge share price collapse, or assets being stolen by shady Poly dealings, that you repeated almost 11 thousand times? Sold a small part of my holding profits and am taking my family to visit their grandparents in Florida in the new year with the proceeds. The rest are safely tucked away in my kz stock exchange account and worth 70% more than my ftse average (and over 100% more than my last £1.6 top-up when you were trying to convince everyone the sky is falling). Easiest money I’ve made trading. I guess I should thank you for convincing the gullible to sell their hard earned for peanuts - so I could bank more profit. Let it be a warning to others to not listen to the ramblings of stupid/uninformed hysterics… and in the case of BB, a really stupid/uninformed hysteric who could never separate his emotions about the war from the investment case of a legitimate company.

For future reference: https://www.dividendmax.com/united-kingdom/london-stock-exchange/banks/osb-group-plc/dividends

Railride, you sound like a seller trying to convince himself he's done the right thing. Fair enough. It's fine that you're drinking the bearish anti-bank, anti-housing Kool-aid; you're not alone. But these things are all cyclical and almost always way over-done. especially when they play out in the media. I suspect before long you'll be wondering why on earth you sold up in the 300s.

Supuser… I was right around there. Was very lucky to be able to average down in the 40s (at some cost), and am now averaging 91. I’m very comfortable with this investment, and even at 140 wouldn’t be overly concerned. Can we ask why you didn’t average down when you had the chance (though you still of course may have another one)?

Nice to finish above the recent intraday high. It’s still a steal for anyone to come in at these prices, and I think the market knows it. Despite some of the idiots on here, it was clearly oversold. We should get back to where we were sooner rather than later and all of us who took the opportunity to average down will have done pretty well.

Agree with the first sentiment (patience needed). Hopefully it stays low this week till the divi drop and I'm buying.

- consensus price target of 200p

- numbers increasing

I wouldn't read too much into the drop on results. Not sure if anyone is noticing but 5% drop on decent news is par for the course the last few weeks (Netflix, Tesla and all UK banks showed huge numbers and dropped by 5%). If the market was concerned, you would see drops of 20%. It's why it's called a called bear market...everything is seen through a negative lens. In a bull market they'd focus on increased passenger numbers; instead, they're all talking about wage increases.

As for falling knife crap, that's all it is. With a 500 ml market cap, there's not much lower to fall. They should worry about their $trillion mcap investments. There's a long way down from there.

Though experiment. You DM BB a year from now when Poly is back on LSE and at £6 a share. Ask him if he wants to apologise for near 11,000 posts misleading investors. What does he say?