Member Info for Onbeyondzebra

Echo

What’s your plan for the asset split if you’re holding with HL? It’s a genuine question. HL almost certainly won’t hold Poly R. Are you willing to just forgo 2/3rds of the assets you have rights to, and be happy with Poly K in your ISA wrapper, or will you go certs/Tabys route at that point if you are allowed to (in order to presumably hold both companies under your name on AIX register). I’m just curious about the medium term thinking for those going the HL route… That’s the elephant in the room.

“company fluctuated between £15-20 per share in 2021.”

Carltt:

Ok, let me explain using other words for people with smaller brains: to figure out the share price of Poly K go back to the last time the market provided a fair evaluation for its assets, income, debt etc. - without taking into account geopolitical factors - (e.g. 2021).

Then again, not sure why I’m even responding to you; like the two or three other cancerous soars that have infected this board, you have no interest in discussing things in good faith = filtered.

It’s not hard to figure out the value of Poly K. It roughly generates 1/3rd of the income and should have less than a third of the debt - due to the state of the resources. A fair SP for the whole company fluctuated between £15-20 per share in 2021. Figure out a third of that and it should be the minimum that Poly K is worth, if it ever returned to FTSE. Of course, it might be valued at more than that if disproportionately more debt is saddled on Poly R.

This has been discussed multiple times in past weeks. Freedom Finance EU doesn’t take UK accounts. Freedom Finance Kazakhstan/Freedom Finance Global does. Google it then download app. For country of residency in app signup - choose 2nd down on the list. (You’ll know what I mean when you get there.)

Recklessferret: No problem. If you want to dig a bit deeper it’s all in the Q & A doc on the website: https://www.polymetalinternational.com/files/en/2023_05_10_Re-domiciliation_QAs_eng.pdf

Requesting the certs instigates the name change on the ftse registry which gets in time transferred to the AIX registry. The (paper) certs as such are purely a physical representation of your mighty power. Have fun…

If your broker has said that they can be kept in your ISA after the Redon then that is the case. The shares right now in your ISA and are in a digital form and (most importantly) kept on the ftse register - under your broker’s name. When the dom moves to AIX, the ftse register gets copied over to the AIX registry. I don’t see where paper certs enters into this process. In theory, your broker can still hold these new AIX digital shares and be named on the AIX registry as the custodian. If they are in an ISA wrapper… they can stay in an ISA wrapper.

For brokers that will not hold Poly after the Redom (e.g. ii) they have asked that you sell or take ownership of the shares. This means requesting certificates. The paper certs are sent to you but, most important, the name is changed on the ftse registry from your broker’s name to your name. You then don’t need to do anything - when the ftse registry is copied over Poly will know you own the shares - but you probably want to flag yourself via the Tabys app so you can interact with the company and change your dividend receiving bank account if you want.

I don’t see where the confusion lies…

They won’t hold following redom.

I thought a thread like this might be helpful. It sounds like more and more UK brokers are buckling and agreeing to hold Poly shares after the move to AIX. While it seems that none will allow you to buy or sell on AIX, it does sounds like they will pass on Poly dividends (as things stand with no UK/EU sanctions). It would be helpful for others if those who received or receive confirmation of this post on the thread who their broker is.

I am with ii which is not offering this service and probably won’t. I thought it might also be helpful to start a discussion on why you might not choose to take advantage of this offer if it is put to you. Due to my circumstances and strategy, I would not choose for ii to hold my shares after the redom, as I would worry that they may not be as flexible - in terms of providing options - in the future. I am of course referring to the expected split of Russian and Kazakh assets/companies in late 2023-2024. I would want to have all my option available to me - in terms of obtaining fair value for the Russia assets and don’t think any UK broker would hold these shares, which would seriously curtail one option. Certs + Tabys seems to me the avenue that brings the lowest cost (none), keeps all of my options open, and fits my strategy of only wanting dividends and having no intention to sell in the medium term.

I can however certainly see why keeping your shares in situ is a great option to those that find themselves with brokers that don’t offer certs or, whereby, their shares are in a SIPP and can’t be easily extracted, or where dividend taxation is a concern.

The quick rebuttal to why it’s not mm manipulation is because it’s NEVER mm manipulation. If you want, question what is showing up as a buy and what is listed as a sell here (I’ve rarely seen my trades given the right colour). That doesn’t mean the underlying mm algorithms are conspiring against you. 1. Imagine the zoom meeting between market maker reps as they discuss how they can fix things for a micro-who gives a crap-42milliion-marketcap company with zero volume so that they can squeeze out a couple thousand pounds… how would that even look? 2. I’ve called the last 3-4 spikes and drops, am I part of the grande conspiracy too? No, I’ve just observed how ALL AIM shares work over the past 7 years - and specifically how ANGS has over the past 5: Exciting news (with nothing behind it) = price goes up; No exciting news (even if the company is producing - e.g. UKOG after horse-hill) = price drifts down until new exciting news can be fabricated. ANGS’ SP has reacted in a textbook fashion to how it - and every other AIM share - always acts and reacts.

Blame the mm’s if it makes you sleep better, but the true cause is the investor makeup of this company. If there are very few institutional investors (and the ones they do have are selling warrants or otherwise as soon as it reaches a target price) and the rest are retail investors chasing rainbows, the SP does EXACTLY what it’s done since February.

So… bloody Thursday is upon us. I personally don’t think it will be as bad as some are predicting. The only issue is potentially lack of buyers - due to retail broker restrictions. The question is how low the bigs let it drop before scooping them up. Any predictions on how low it will go?

It’s all very suspicious. Apparently he lost £17k, but can’t write in English and admits to being up to date on (or in this case fabricating) Russian media stories. As he’s probably based in Russia, he should have stayed on MOEX - not FTSE - and would have made loads of money on Poly this past year. I’m starting to smell a rat … =P

Seriously Bittenpill, I think you should go back and check with your bosses, I think you’re pushing the wrong line. Capital flight by UK investors to Kazakhstan is a good thing for mother Russia; you should be trying to convince us that there’s no risk and only an upside.

Yes… it is that easy

And yet the SP is up 2.5% which shows you how worried major investors are by this. Russia has been nationalising foreign assets for weeks (months in some cases). First of all, Poly International is not a Russian company, and we are all primarily here for the Kazakh assets, with the Russian assets being a nice bonus if it works out. Maybe if you write another post in caps - with exclamation marks - people will take you seriously. Filtered!

Interested to hear the response, but think they will skirt around the dividends question.

I have two passports! That must be why I want to keep my Poly shares ; P

Good luck Baits. It’s going down faster than I thought. I think at this exit price you should have the opportunity to get back in 20% lower, should you wish. It’s now entering into my buying range but, will I’ll hold fire for the time being. As you said, it doesn’t feel like it’s at the bottom, quite yet. With a lot selling pressures over the next couple of months and not much to spark buying it’ll likely keep drifting downward. For those that argued for staying in AIM…the dislocation between revenue, assets and sp doesn’t happen like this on the main market. It is sadly predictable for AIM, and you have to learn the best times to jump out and in.

terribletrader? fair enough. the value (or risk-reward calculus) of an investment shouldn’t be down to which broker you chose, but that’s what happened. i’m with ii (completely accidentally as i was with td investment before it was bought out by ii) so happy days… for the time being. i think what hl is doing is ridiculous and what barclays is doing is borderline criminal. i still think if enough of you put enough pressure - threatening to move your holdings - they’ll buckle, but it’s a **** position to be in. best of luck luck to you and those in your position!

Bittenpill: I think you have a rather limited view of what a value of an investment is. Of course if you are looking at SP alone (which you are as you crystallised your loses) then things aren’t great. But that misses the big picture. Poly is leaving LSE and transitioning to AIX and so it is expected that the SP would fall as more investors refuse to do the small amount of work to move over and/or brokers liquidate accounts of inactive investors. If you read the company documents - which you clearly haven’t - you’ll see that Poly had a great year and is set to have an even better one. I am happy with my Poly holding - soon to be in AIX shares - and am using this opportunity to scoop up your shares at a cheap price. From my research I can conclude two likely scenarios (and 1 unlikely one): 1. Dividends are restored in the short to medium term - and at my average I’d be drawing a 50% - 60% yield. 2. The company splits with Poly K likely to return one day to FTSE/DAX etc., recovering its fair pre-war valuation of £5-7 (as the two mines provide 1/3rd of the companies income). With my average I would double to triple my entire investment - and I would keep my rather large number of Poly R shares for good measure to see what kind or wartime profiteering they were able to do in Russia. Who knows, in 5 years - when the ware is over - those shares might be worth a mint.

The one very unlikely risk is that in the next 45 days the UK does what the Americans haven’t done and sanctions the parent company, putting them in Evraz limbo. Again, extremely unlikely. The question you have to ask yourself is why you sold out. Was it the risk over the next month and half too high or laziness in transferring your shares? I know that I never would have crystallised my loses like you did. At very least, I would have transferred them over to a Kazakh broker and sold them for £3 a share on AIX - which you could have done at any point. But then again, maybe you had £17k that you were happy to burn… and sending two emails and paying the £100 in fees was too much work.

Bittenpill: I’m sorry to say this, but, if you don’t know how many mines Poly owns in Kazakhstan - and the percentage of EBITDA that those mines make for the company - you really shouldn’t have been investing what you did (£30, 000?}. Your comment on the running cost for the (TWO) mines is also wholly inaccurate. Most companies have a section on their website titled assets and/or investors; in future, you should probably start by reading that before buying or selling investments.

You are almost right though: time to leave it to the institutions, big boys + those who have done their research and know what they’re doing to brave it out.

CWWX: so when the SP was between £15-£20 (and the Kazakh assets were covering the entire dividend for the company), they were worth £3? I suggest you watch the section on incoming and outgoings from the general meeting two weeks ago, take out a calculator and figure out the split. I think you’ll find the valuation of the Kazakh assets are between £4-£7 from the 2020-2021 sp valuations.