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TMS, so by your own admission, the last four CEOs have been totally ineffective and unable to reign the workforce in? So working on that principle it really doesn't matter who the next CEO is as it will be "rinse and repeat".....lol

It looks as though you are admitting that "Baldy Dave" and his henchmen hold all the power?

TMS, so you are laying the blame for the UK operation's decline on the workforce? Nothing whatsoever to do with the personnel that get paid to run the company?

So during Moya Greene's tenure the UK operation made absolutely no progress?

It's strange that both Crozier and Thompson came from supermarkets but both failed to implement their vision as they would have liked?

TMS, "that was the 1970’s. When Royal Mail had absolute monopoly. Of course they were market leaders. Lol".

So, let's gloss over the history of RM and start it from, say 1998 when Amazon started up in the UK.

How does a business that had the monopoly on letters and the market share of parcels go from being a market leader in the delivery sector to being a pretty poor third place behind Amazon and DPD? It looks like the genie is out of the bottle and it doesn't look like going back anytime soon.

Sure, the two super hubs are great, although I doubt that the third one scheduled for the south of England will come to fruition, but the competition are still head and shoulders above RM in terms of pure collection and delivery.

It all comes down to a lack of foresight, ambition, innovation and investment.....

TMS, I believe that you may be missing the point on this?

We were market leaders in automation technology and combined forces with Toshiba Bulk Mail Handling (which I believe we bought out at the end of the last century) and AEG. The RM R&D department which was based in Swindon could have gone on to develop and build new and innovative bulk letters handling machinery for global consumption, however due to the shortsighted business plan it decided to ditch the R&D side in favour of purchasing machinery that was developed in an American entrepreneur's garage.

Royal Mail could and should have been well ahead of our competitors instead of falling behind, which is where we are.

Ferrari are still competing and doing it against Red Bull (possibly) but BRM are definitely not and if RM don't up their game they will get blown into the weeds.....lol

Derek, you are bang on when you say that RM used to be market leaders. When I joined the business in the 1970's, RM had already developed the phosphor coated stamp, developed the technology to read it and incorporated it into their machinery (ALF). We had helped pioneer OCR technology and joined forces with AEG to develop a machine that could read type faced and hand written addresses We developed printers that could print phosphor dots onto the letters and had already built and installed parcel sorting machines and chain conveyors. We were also developing and improving our E4/E18 multi selection letter sorting machines, however, by the 1990s the management had decided to downsize the R&D team and eventually dissolved it in preference to purchasing "off the shelf" solutions which always required a large amount of modification to be compatible with our existing technology.....and we are still modifying "off the shelf, plug and play" solutions because we never manage to purchase exactly what we want......the equivalent of buying a new Ferrari and then shoving a diesel power unit in to improve mpg.....lol

TMS, originally, the "we're not going to use aircraft anymore" line was used as an excuse to move start and finish times by up to there hours. Now it's been watered down to twenty four minutes seasonal variation.

Ispy and TMS, from what I have seen this week, I can verify that the seasonal variation working has indeed impacted on the postie's lives as they now have an extra fourteen minutes at the end of the working day to check their social media accounts, go for a dump (and check their social media accounts) or just have a good chinwag.....

It's going to be carnage in the spring and summer of 2024 when they have to do this in their own time.....lol

TMS, the hubs are a great investment however they are only part of the solution.

My thinking is that a saving of £250m to £300m is probably just about enough to keep the UK operation running at a minimal profit. The challenge for the BoD is where additional profits can be made and more importantly how they can win back those contracts which were lost during the period of unrest.

The business itself identified around 400 out of the 1250 UK delivery offices that required significant investment to make them fit for purpose, then there is the problem of the aging fleet which will require electrification in the near future.

TMS, yes the hubs are a substantial investment however they are already planned in. I was thinking more in terms of getting the delivery side of the business fit for purpose and that includes a necessary spend in getting the operation running smoothly as well as a substantial investment in the buildings themselves as some are/will require making fit for purpose going forward into the new era of increased parcels.

TMS, "I think it’s safe to say that this would fly if changes were made to the USO and the money saved by Royal Mail would be substantial".

You're correct that the savings would be substantial should a five day USO come into effect however that would assume these cost saving measures are fully implemented and the savings made reinvested in the business. Unfortunately there is a track record of the UK operation not capitalising on these opportunities.

Derek, thank you for the link.

Tomolo, the UK operation has been using a strategy called Delivery to Specification since before the pandemic. The Compact Sequence Sorting machines have the ability to hold back second class items for dispatch to the relevant delivery office until their due delivery date.

Derek and JB, with regards to the cost of DSA, I have no Idea how much RM generates for each item and I would imagine that it varies from contract to contract, however there have been rumours for several years that it is around 15p to 20p per item for standard C5 letters but I have no proof of this? Obviously most DSA is machine readable so doesn't require as much prep as LBC however I wonder what profit margin is made on this?

Derek and JB. Thank you for your responses.

JB, your OFCOM post yesterday, quoting a 46% reduction in letters over last decade. Was that all letters or just letter box collection? AutoMIS is showing a 49% decline in letter box collection mail since January 2014 (in my mail centre), however we have a manager that keeps a daily record/spreadsheet of downstream access mail and he has reported only a 21% decrease in the same period. Admittedly, DSA volumes vary wildly depending upon location and the business mix in the postcode area however DSA generally accounts for about 80% of our daily letters mail mix.

Golfdinger, just prior to the pandemic in December 2019, when Rico Back was the CEO, the CWU and BoD were just about to come to blows over plans to reform the UK operation. The pandemic effectively kicked the can down the road for two years and bloated the figures giving the impression that all was well with the UK operation, however the original disagreements were always bubbling under the surface. This was a business that was always going to be in trouble due to the restrictions placed upon it despite the data that read to the contrary.

The UK operation is capable of making a decent profit again but it's going to need the right people at the top making the right decisions but it's not going to happen overnight that's for sure.

Dowsie, "hopefully the government will see sense and reduce letters to 5 days a week but I won’t hold my breath".

That's quite funny..... seeing as this useless Government can't even decide what to do about illegal immigration and when they do make a decision they find themselves unable to act on that decision...... amongst other things.

I think that a three day USO for letters (Monday, Wednesday, Friday) would be sufficient with a seven day USO for parcels. The first class letter service could then be effectively dismissed saving both customer and the business money.....it's not as if another company is desperate to empty those red boxes or deliver letters anyway?

Https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2023/09/royal-mail-stamps-price-change/

First class up 14% to £1.25.......kerching.......

Derek, for clarification, I don't agree with those institutions that "short" any stocks. Over the last decade, I have held RMG/IDS shares as long term (more than five years) investments as well as holding for short term gain (two to three months sometimes) and I know that others on this board have as well. It's the nature of the game really and personally, I like the way that this stock can be as unpredictable as a Shane Warne delivery but each to their own.

Perhaps it would be better for some if the share price went up in a straight line, say 3% per annum but if that were the case then you may as well stick your money in an NS&I income bond.....lol

Continued....

A further aim of the introduction of the seasonal hour’s approach is to maximise consistency of duty cover, which helps with familiarity for frontline OPG’s and consistency for customers and so the core of work through different seasons is intended to be the indoor and outdoor work related to the listed duty walk-holders. There may be instances where there is a gap between supply of hours which needs to be filled with productive work, and it is the aim to do this from additional work added to the core duty rather than reallocating people to alternative duties with more workload.

The initial design for Year 1 will be jointly reviewed to capture lessons learned, taking feedback with the aim of improving the approach.

The introduction of Seasonal Variation will also focus on the commitments outlined within the National Joint Statement on improving Quality of Service & USO Compliance: -

• Deliver Section 2.5 of the BRT&G Agreement, which committed Royal Mail and the CWU to urgently improve and restore Quality of Service for all products, including achievement of our USO obligations;

• To reduce the reliance on agency workers whilst meeting productivity targets.

To deliver the aims and opportunities set out above, it is critical that local managers and CWU reps work jointly to maximise the value of these additional hours during the High Season via the Weekly Resourcing Meetings.

Both Parties recognise that there are a number of other matters which are still under discussion nationally, for example, the approach for Delivery Revisions and these will be jointly progressed and communicated.

Royal Mail and the CWU also confirm that all other aspects of Seasonal Variation remain fully in place.

Any issues arising from this Joint Communication should be raised to the signatories for resolution

Francis Williams

Commercial & Field Programme Director

Mark Baulch

Assistant Secretary

JOINT STATEMENT

This Joint Communication has been issued to confirm that the planned move over to the Seasonal Variation as set out in the RMG/CWU Business Recovery, Transformation and Growth Agreement, Appendix 1, will take place as previously outlined and reported.

From Monday 4th September to Sunday 17th December 2023. Full-timers (including 35-hour contracts) will see a 24 minutes per day variation increase applied before their start time. Part-timers will see a 10 minutes variation before their start time.

From Monday 18th December 2023 to Sunday 26th May 2024. Full-timers and part-timers will work their normal hours.

From Monday 27th May 2024 to Sunday 8th September 2024. Full-timers will see a 24 minutes per day variation decrease (starting 14 minutes later and finishing 10 minutes earlier). Part-timers will work 10 minutes less per day, finishing 10 minutes earlier.

In setting out this Joint Communication, it can be confirmed that Royal Mail did initiate an approach to the CWU on the option to delay the deployment of seasonal variation due to some concerns regarding forecasted traffic levels. However, following further talks, Royal Mail has since moved away from this consideration as it has now been highlighted that any changes in the commencement date at such short notice will generate a number of systems issues which could have impacted individuals pay.

Royal Mail and the CWU have agreed an approach which supports the need for Royal Mail to be more flexible in an increasingly competitive marketplace. The approach will also support the Universal Service Obligation and ability to meet quality of service targets against varying levels of workload over the seasons of the year. The approach is based on a mutual interest approach and will aim to maintain job security and secure terms and conditions for employees. Seasonal variation aims to better align scheduled hours in different blocks of the year to the typical workload in those periods. In doing so it also aims to: -

• Improve productivity and efficiency and USO/services standards for customers and ensuring all workload is cleared including door to door.

• Reduce the need for outdoor lapsing and absorption which is unpopular for employees.

• Provide more consistency of delivery time for Estimated Delivery Windows for customers.

• We agree that employees’ weekly hours will be adjusted up and down by a fixed amount for a block of weeks and their start and finish times will vary slightly depending on seasonal peaks and troughs of work.

Continued....