Member Info for Okehurst1

Interesting debate.

I am a very recent shareholder of Amigo , very small holding before this week, I have taken the following view .

As long as Amigo can secure a sensible SOAV2 for all parties which also allows them to generate gross profit to settle same & service the bonds then the equity has value, without breaching covenants the bond holders cannot place the business into Administration.

The Directors primarily have fiduciary responsibilities, it was telling that the Judges summing up advised there was no sign of the business becoming insolvent from the management numbers we can assume that had been disclosed to him,suggest this is a key point in the debate - in fact it’s everything, tbh I wouldn’t have taken the risk with the equity without this information.

The FCA know the same, they also know that via insolvency
the claimants could get nothing, plus it then becomes complicated as the bond holders take control of the book and have to chase monthly micro payments themselves, this outcome wouldn’t look good on the FCA and the Bondholders may have issues with disgruntled claimants who received no payout?
Will the Amigo management stay on ? Lots of unknowns for the bond holders but either way unless the Judge has interpreted the management forecasts incorrectly it’s irrelevant at this stage.

If bond holders eventually enjoy par it’s a decent return with minimum risk and they avoid the ‘ grunt ‘ work but it’s not their choice at the moment - if the Judge is correct

Cw349

Agree with your comments btw

M/cap today £29M plus £28M debt
Post placing the business will have the benefit of the £20M less costs

The recent restructuring reduced annual rent by £7.5M p/a
and they got rid of non performing venues and I guess non secured creditors were thrown under the bus

As such the business is fully restructured, has the funds to invest in the estate and its m/cap will be £50M post new shares listing

It’s a painful day for LTH’s but anyone who punted in the depths of Covid it’s a free ride now, ditto at 23p, the pain for creditors / existing shareholders has already been felt.

Since we are all a wee peeved I would like to get this monkey off my back

As much as I like Big Jock and the job he is trying to do for shareholders the company should be communicating direct to all shareholders rather respond to the odd one, alongside the company tweeting #incolinwetrust / ramping up the stock on Twitter just before Directors dump their share options, set patterns in play.

It’s not a good look for us PI investors, the tweet last night advising don’t order a Tesla was the top hat

Fair comment.

Suspect we will have a £update once the Biotech solution is disclosed, Colin has indicated thats the 7th May.

TWatcher , they are using their own kit for their own tests and it looks likely the Government kit for manufacturing cassettes - via RNS

Of course we have no exact £contract values but we are making tests, if we are manufacturing 2M of cassettes a werk then we know we may be generating up to £15M a month revenue and 80p gross profit per cassette - based on RTC contract, there may be a cost to lease the kit but don’t think we are far away with the above.

RNS quotes

‘In the meantime, Omega is currently using its own capacity to produce its own tests and following today’s launch, the Company expects, together with the test to be licensed from the UK Government as above, to rapidly move towards full utilisation of its capacity of 2 million test per week’

‘From its site in Alva the Company is currently producing VISITECT® CD4 Advanced Disease tests, AbC-19TM COVID-19 Rapid Antibody tests and, following launch, the VISITECT® COVID-19 Antigen test.’

Fair to say we are using Government kit to manufacture cassettes for other Government approved biotech solutions

‘ as well as providing additional cassetting and pouching services to the UK Government for other COVID-19 antigen lateral flow tests."

Based on making cassettes for the Government
Assume same sale price £1.76 as per RTC
2M a week , so £15M a month revenue @ 50% margin

We don’t know the split Abc cassettes to Antigen for other tests but the margin will be similar

It’s a guess but we must have had the call to make Abc tests and an order is incoming

Decent revenue, the £374M is on top

Colin has delivered

We know from the RTC we generate £1.75p for the cassette
with a 50% margin , so be it Abc or blank cassettes to the Government it’s decent.

If we are making 2M cassettes a week we can now estimate the £revenue stream until we start the £374M contract

We are starting to see the benefits of being the U.K. governments prime LFT contractor, we can supply LFT cassettes to anyone - and we have Government funded machinery they want to utilise

We are making cassettes for others, wonder how much revenue we are generating ?

Should hear shortly on the £374M contract start date soon

2M a week ! Factory flat out

So we are also currently manufacturing cassettes for the Government to provide to others - not pencilled in this £revenue stream

‘not only are we producing our own tests, but we are also producing AbC-19 Rapid tests for the UK-RTC in anticipation of forthcoming orders as well as providing additional cassetting and pouching services to the UK Government for other COVID-19 antigen lateral flow tests."

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-nhs-app-to-be-used-as-covid-passport-for-international-travel-grant-shapps-confirms-12289071

‘Mr Shapps also confirmed an NHS app will be used to allow Britons to demonstrate whether they have had a COVID jab, or tested negative for the virus, before travelling abroad.’

TWatcher,
Not always agreed with your comments and you do tend to be very bearish on ODX, however I have to admit I have no argument to your points.

If Colin puts out an RNS it could be messy if he says he is stockpiling Abc tests

No idea what’s best .... silence until we know what biotech we are using for the Government contract or an RNS which may be painful.

Suggest this is what the stockpile is for, goes live 21st June
not public information but no hiding stuff on Bidstats

https://github.com/NHSDigital/nhs-antibody-testing-registration-prototype

Think we can say we are currently manufacturing and stockpiling Abc19 antibody tests

Tue, 27th Apr 2021 07:00

RNS Number : 6571W
Abingdon Health PLC
27 April 2021





Trading update



York, U.K. 27 April 2021: Abingdon Health plc (AIM: ABDX) ("Abingdon" or "the Company"), a leading international developer and manufacturer of high quality and effective rapid tests, today provides a trading update for the year ending 30 June 2021 (FY21).



Guidance for the FY21

Abingdon, alongside its UK Rapid Test Consortium partners, continues to make progress on commercialising the AbC-19TM rapid test both in the UK private sector and internationally. The Board is encouraged by the ongoing commercial discussions whilst progressing the required regulatory approvals, and continues to advance its Tier 1 order pipeline, as outlined at the time of the interim results. Further progress has been made in each of these seven countries and the pipeline of opportunities also continues to grow. In anticipation of these near-term opportunities, the Company continues to build AbC-19TM rapid test stock alongside its consortium partners so that Abingdon can quickly satisfy demand as orders are confirmed.



Whilst each of the opportunities at the time of the interims remains in place and the pipeline continues to grow, the speed of adoption and therefore the receipt of orders is taking longer than the Board originally anticipated. The Board therefore expects the results for FY21 will be substantially below the current market expectations.



Given the level of uncertainty on the timing of AbC-19TM orders and subsequent delivery within the financial year, the Board now anticipates FY21 revenue will be in the range of £11.4m to £17.0m, with an adjusted EBITDA range of £(3.3)m to £0.0m.



At the lower end of the revenue range this would represent revenue more than doubling with growth of 119% compared with the prior year; and excluding any DHSC revenues in either year, this would represent revenue growth of 132%, highlighting the underlying revenue growth that the Board expects in the Company's non-COVID sales in FY21.



Contract service for partners

In addition, Abingdon continues to work with contract service partners on the transfer of assays to large-scale manufacture and the Company has three such projects, two COVID-19 assays and one non-COVID-19 assay, currently within this process. Subject to successful completion the Board expects that these will lead to meaningful manufacturing revenues in the next financial year.



Department of Health and Social Care contract

As previously noted, the Company's supply contract with the DHSC expired on 14 February 2021. The Company has still not been able to establish from the DHSC when the outstanding debts in relation to this contract will be paid, as well as other monies owed in relation to the procurement of components on the DHSC's behalf by Abingdon. As at 27 April 2021, Abingdon has outstanding invoices with the DHSC totalling £6.7m (including VAT) w

I think Colin genuinely thought he had his strategy right, he took flak for not ramping up the £374M contract, he duly goes the other way once he thinks the Mologic TT is complete and his PR go to town resulting with
#inColinwetrust, the Omega team truly believed they had cracked it.

However the variants/ coupled with Mologic partnering with Avacta to produce a reputed 100% accurate test resulted in events outside Colin’s control.

It does look like the standalone Mologic test is not coming to the market but we will be manufacturing a test with the Mologic/ Avacta biotech for the Government - if it’s as good as claimed.

It will come through for ODX in the end but realistically we have a wait now for maybe 12 weeks including TT before we can generate any income from an Antigen LFT assuming we get confirmation from the Government in the next couple of weeks.

Comp, do we need PHE approval to sell the Visitect test?
Don’t think we do, it’s driven by the CE certificate.

Suggest this is down to Mologic and their agenda

Comp, suggest the variants and the ability of the standalone mologic test to identify the same, coupled with Avacta originally failing Porton in January then somehow in partnership with Mologic produce a test that is 100% accurate.

The Government were confident the AZ vaccine would provide protection against the SA variant for example, that doesn’t look like the case - sure the booster will

Lots of moving parts outside Colin’s control here, in this case I don’t he could have done much more, hence the silence, he’s waiting on the Avacta/ mologic test passing Porton so we can commence the £374M contract.

Comp909
Can’t disagree, as it stands today Mologic standalone test has not cleared Porton.

ODX were going to make this test for commercial use but it appears something has happened? We can only speculate it’s the > Ct 27 result from the Avacta/ Mologic test

Mologic may have said to Colin something along the lines
‘the upgraded test is 100% accurate, let’s roll that one out?’

It’s does look extremely likely - this all assumes Avacta clear Porton and the result matches their figures?

If so all will work out in the end and we have a delay of maybe 12 plus weeks from today in terms of the tests being sold?

As mentioned earlier this is not Colin’s fault.

Think it’s fair to say that ODX is now linked to the Avacta & Mologic test ,the latter having partnered with Avacta in regards to their antigen biotech - according to their RNS today

The Mologic stand-alone biotech looks like it’s not going anywhere commercially, Avacta declaring 100% accuracy >27 Ct is the catalyst that was out of Colin’s hands

Speculating but it appears just a question of time that Avacta /Mologic test clears phase 3 Porton and then Omega get the green light off the Government.

The only issue is then timing? Is it a further 12 weeks for TT? This appears to be the rule of thumb but who knows?

None of this has been Colin’s fault, he couldn’t have foreseen the delay hence he has been quiet the last few weeks ,the £374M contract will commence this year but we could be looking at the end of July / August before we are generating income - it will come