Member Info for Okehurst1

Holder of ODX and Avacta

Quick shot of timeline

Avacta failed at Porton a few months ago as such it appears the Directors had the clinical trial for CE stamp conducted in Europe
Post completion of this Avacta final clinical trial/results, then the Directors can self certificate the CE accreditation
this should happen by end of this month but that doesn’t give them approval for the U.K. Government contracts
Avacta BOD need to then resubmit their test to Porton
However long that takes ? Assume 6 to 8 weeks for yet another clinical validation
Then it’s TT ? However long that takes ?

Short term it looks like Mologic until Avacta complete what they have to.

Personal opinion, can’t see it being

Looking highly likely it’s Mologic who will be providing the Biotech

Hopefully we will get the nod soon to use same.

Speculation but is the company leveraging the £50M value of the contract to fund the stockpile ?
Then on being advised of the biotech they can turn to cash very quickly ?

Velatastic

Think all holders of the shares are asking that question, are we manufacturing Abc tests or blank antigen LFT’s which somehow will have the biotech element inserted once the Government confirm which one? Maybe it’s a mixture of both but with a higher proportion to the latter?

TWatcher, can’t argue with your points below.

Assume we get the news of TT - and discount the biotech it’s irrelevant to ODX - and let’s go with £3.74 a test and we sell 100M this calendar year to the Government at 50% GP

What’s your call on the share price on this news if this happens ?

Agree, looks right .

You have to feel for shareholders after getting spooked by the 7am RNS and then watched the share price drop and sold this afternoon

Further publication this evening but no mention of the £50M just the £374M, very strange.

Why would bidstat’s re state ?

http://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W10/746782729

Not fully like for like but a diagnostics testing business after all, offer was 40% above previous close price.
Can’t see Omega staying long at these levels, either the market re rates or someone comes in for the 2nd largest diagnostics engineer in Europe.

Interesting quote from article .

Schenkel noted that most large diagnostics companies have cash to burn due to COVID-19 tailwinds and that GenMark's revenue is expected to "grow robustly for the foreseeable future, especially after accelerated instrument placements in the COVID-19 environment."

In 2020, GenMark's fourth quarter revenues rose 84 percent year over year to $50.1 million as a result of increased ePlex molecular diagnostic revenue and demand for respiratory panels.

https://www.genomeweb.com/business-news/roche-acquire-genmark-diagnostics-18b

Spot on MB

Plus can they increase productivity with an extra shift?
Could they increase capacity to 13M or 14M a month with no capital outlay ?
Looks possible ?

It makes no difference to ODX who provides the buffer / reagent , Avacta, Mologic, Vatic, they are lead manufacturer for the U.K. Government, think we can say that’s nailed on now.

Excellent news for Company and all stakeholders.

It does appear whatever we have been manufacturing we have been Stockpiling and the same going forward until we know what buffer will be used, but the takeaway is we will sell everything we manufacture, that’s officially a given now.

What a great position to be in.

Starbright,
It’s as much as you can manufacture contract for ODX
What ever they have stockpiled plus about to manufacture,
this contract alone is for 3 months, we won’t be able to satisfy the demand.

The bonus now is pretty much knowing that we have been making serious money via the stock pile, we will turn this into cash.

Next is increasing capacity

It appears that the manufacturing capacity over the past 4 months may have been manufacturing blank LFT’s for this contract, that’s big ££ that hadn’t been priced into the equation, it’s a real bonus if it’s the case.

Will be interesting to see how much ODX can increase their manufacturing capacity by adding an extra shift / increase efficiencies? That’s another 30% to 35% volume a month without the requirement of additional plant / factory.

Again this has not been factored in the rerate.

Congratulations to Colin and his team, excellent bit of business.

Good post MB, helpful for any new shareholders to this BB as well and agree all points.

Once the contact value is confirmed suggest the next debate will be Omega’s manufacturing capacity above the disclosed 10M a month , will be interesting to see if the company can increase its productivity by 30% to 35% a month via an extra shift and productivity gains utilising existing plant/ machinery/ real estate?

This could then kick on the re- rating.

Speculating but potentially a 5M a month contract with the U.K. Government and commercial deals for the 5M balance may produce higher profits ? ODX then build numerous commercial partnerships with a higher unit cost? Could be worth an extra £1 a test, maybe even more ?

What could the value of the U.K. government contract be if 5M a month? £275M to £350M? Be amazing news if it’s this high.

An extra £1 per test via commercial deals earns us an extra £60M a year profit on the 5M balance?

https://www.vatic.health/how-it-works#how-it-works

Interesting link which MB first pointed out.

Biosure work closely with Vatic, the latter having their own antigen test.

Vatic are a bit of dark horse.

Another interesting paragraph

Also in January 2021, Abingdon Health agreed a contract for technical transfer of a UK customer's COVID-19 antigen test into manufacturing and that project commenced in February 2021. The Company welcomed the news from Avacta plc in February 2021 regarding the very encouraging performance data on their COVID-19 antigen test. As a manufacturing partner for Avacta, the Company looks forward to moving their product through technical transfer in due course’

It appears Abingdon have not even started the TT with Avacta ?

Interesting paragraph, relevant to ODX.

‘Good commercial progress with AbC-19™ COVID-19 rapid antibody test being evaluated in over 30 countries worldwide, with several contracts in late-stage negotiations subject to registration’

Hi Regulator,

What’s your view on the delay of the contract details ?
Ditto do you think we are currently manufacturing Abc -19 tests at the moment , so all current capacity on this product?

Thanks