Member Info for Okehurst1

Auto check - apologies FDA

Innova has basically buffer / reagent / film as the so called biotech , it’s standard tech in China, shop around on Alibaba and you can find it popping up for big quantities via chemists

The Chinese / USA investment bankers made a move and didn’t think they would get caught out with plagiarism, unfortunately for them they didn’t think the FSA would cross reference to pick up a bit of GCSE level exam style copying, they got nicked.

Innova have removed the test off their website being available to buy ,their lawyers will have advised the directors if they have done what the FDA are claiming they need to stop digging

USA law suit against them will be next, I guess the funds will have been moved to a country outside USA control,doubt if Innova will be paying tax in the U.K., the IP will be offshore.

Innova are finished as an entity but the cash will move on.

ND ...not that article

BMJ say it’s ‘not fit for test and release’ this one below

Lots of other stuff out there, independent tests showing 29% etc

Toss of the coin accuracy is where Innova is for self use, I don’t think that’s disputed by the science community
It’s not good enough to stop the spread

I actually don’t think Mologic V1 is good enough and we don’t really know if Avacta is 100%, won’t be long before Deeks, BMJ and others start their our evaluation - nothing wrong with that

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4469

https://richardtice.com/2020/12/letter-to-secretary-of-state-for-health/

Worth a read from last December but the facts have been borne out.

PCR doesn’t work to identify infectious people, but will for up to 62 days ping if you have had Covid.

Innova is 50% accurate at best according to BMJ, pretty useless in controlling the spread

Let’s hope Avacta test is 100% accurate up to Ct27, if it is then it limits the spread of the Covid 19 variants and they can then at least be controlled - 50% accurate is a toss of the coin odds, the data is clear Innova is really pretty useless.

Some big buys going through

When the Judge said no immediate risk of insolvency he certainly was thinking very short term.

Amigo can still trade without the accounts signed off but the shares would have to be suspended and the BOD confident they can secure an agreed deal - to cover their fiduciary duties.

It’s then would the Plc become a Private Co if it could reach a deal with FCA, in affect would it come back to the market? The LSE could attempt to block.

White knuckle ride now

ODX have to plug away and get live sales contracts wherever on the globe

Would Innova need to make a bid for ODX or Abingdon ?

With potentially £1B to £1.5B plus of surplus cash from the Government they could build a state of the art factory in Wales, no loaned kit, possibly even get a grant, why bother with a takeover it’s just not worth it

Assume it cost them £200M for ODX as a figure, they can have a shiny new factory / automated kit for a fraction of the above and buy whatever biotech they want to use within the LFT

They could even undercut with very low predatory prices to capture the U.K. government market.

Thanks for sharing

‘We are 100% committed to respecting the action that you took to support the Scheme, alongside the other 75,000 or so customers who also voted to support the Scheme. Our focus remains on fighting to find an alternative solution that allows our customers to get the best possible outcome.’

Nothing more to discuss, almost worth an RNS in terms of the BOD’s thought process

Jimmy has some fair points from a moral point of view - commendable

However from a legal position the secured creditors being the bond holders have protection by law, the claimants as unsecured creditors would have to change the rules via their legal action and this would have to be funded.

Assume they could fund and they won - for the benefit of this discussion - that would be the end of securitisation of loans on any assets, the U.K. banking system would go into freefall, it’s just not going to happen.

Good or bad it’s not about morals / ethics at this point for Amigo and it’s stakeholders it’s what how law stands.

The judge has pointed to the solution, we all know what it is.

Jimmy you raise some interesting considerations but think we can agree this is a high profile situation intertwined with Limited liability and secured creditors, it’s a minefield.

The claimants have a claim against Amigo the entity

The secured creditors being the bond holders have priority on the assets being the loan book, without doubt Amigo Administration will be an ‘event ‘ that breaches the loan covenant.

Post administration the loan book gets managed by the Bond holders ,the claimants will stake their claim to the Administrator but there will nothing for them.

What you are suggesting unless I am missing something is not how corporate insolvency works in the U.K.

The claimants would have to ‘join’ and then start a separate action against the Bond holders, that could happen I agree on that point but that’s extremely messy for all parties concerned.

SOA2 is the only way forward

Suggest we could be looking at £ARR valuation on the subscription element of the gross revenue.

That’s the key metric, 24X to 32X ARR is normal in this space, especially once the £ARR passes £20M.

Not too sure on the value of sponsorship but subscription is where this one really takes off in my opinion.

Microsoft bid $12B for a USA omichannel gaming platform
3 weeks ago that had $100M of ARR

Jimmy, good debate and you are certainly entitled to your views.

You do highlight that if Amigo enters administration the claimants get nothing, Amigo have no immediate risk to administration according to the Judge, as such it’s in everyone’s interest to agree SOA2

My positions have been on placed on this outcome, worse case I lose 100% of my investment, anyone shorting who tries to buy back on a positive RNS settlement could get crushed depending on their ‘ sell’ price, it’s open ended losses.

Jimmy

The Issue for the FCA is they know there is a good chance the claimants will receive nothing in administration, the Bond Holders at this point as secured creditors will either sell or manage the book but there is no address against them only Amigo plc.

The Judge’s summing up points to a settlement that suits all stakeholders.

Agree it’s finely poised and we are relying on the Judge understanding the covenants / management accounts.

Can’t see a breach if the company are servicing the Bond?

The Judge must have reviewed the covenants to have made the call the business in not in danger of administration?

Vinson, fully agree, this has been my take.

Think Ytse was demonstrating Shaw’s short position had been reduced - albeit a fraction

Noticeable many of the notifying funds who have been shorting the stock have been reducing their exposure

Soder, sorry to see you are sitting on a loss and appreciate your point of view.

Let’s hope you are wrong and you can claw back some of your losses ,although 60p seems a long way off if Amigo survives.

Good luck

Usernames, agree, my thoughts