Member Info for Okehurst1

This one is a bit of a curve ball but I wonder with Gates now owning GAD will he be interested in the U.K. government £980M manufacturing contract ? Once they pick the biotech?

Gates didn’t buy GAD to make tests for the 1st World?
It also coincided with Omega receiving additional manufacturing kit off the U.K. Government

Pure speculation but commercially it has possibilities, that would be a serious rerate if this was the case.

Throw in Gates will be using the same Biotech as Omega for Africa it does add a level of gravitas to the quality of the Omega antigen test when marketing to USA/ EU

‘ good enough for Bill Gates ... ‘

Looks like we needed the extra machinery off the Government to hit the 2M a week
We can speculate Omega said to the Government ‘we won’t buy more kit without contracts ‘and as such were provided with additional kit
It’s fair to say it’s looking highly likely the £374M contract will be announced soon,plus a high chance using Omega Antigen test for Home use - hence the photos of the boxes saying home test

You take your position today as you see it today , the above comes off and we enjoy a healthy rerate, its becoming more likely by the week

The Government supplying more machinery as they need volume - which is what the Chinese manufacturers can offer - and the £374M contract looking more likely to start as a result
Omega releasing annual accounts with photographs of manufactured antigen tests saying home tests
Changes to DHSC regs on testing specifications
Potential move away from PCR to LFT for travel into U.K. and same for EU countries
Price of LFT’s, Omega can supply low cost quality LFT’s don’t think that’s in doubt, their MO is as diagnostic engineers and they have a good reputation
EU & USA approval on the cards

Throw in the rest of the business and a £95M m/cap is looking incredibly cheap

AgentB , yeah you have nailed the problem, so frustrating.

TWatcher,
Please can you identify the comment from Colin re Avacta
I’ve missed that one, was it the last Q&A ?

..... secured EU self test Home use

A 3rd world Continent using a 1st World Covid 19 test

A 1st world Country using a 3rd world (standard )Covid 19 test

Total embarrassment for this U.K. Government and how it’s handled Covid testing in this country

Tall Paul
Don’t think this is the case.

GAD / Avacta have an agreement for the former to manufacture the Avacta LFT and it’s quite possible Avacta will provide their biotech for Africa via GAD, suggest this could raise our profile and the quality of our LFT accuracy due to Gates involvement.

It would be a smart move by Avacta if this is the case, it would also be ironic - in a good way for Africa - if a 3rd world continent had a better self administered Covid19 than the U.K. who have a test that’s banned by the USA and doesn’t pick up Variants.

Fits in with EU strategy that big Al touched on, has to be Home use next

Guess the Asian market regulations - as he mentioned - will be cleared in the coming month, that’s a big opportunity.

Don’t think the market fully appreciated the commercial opportunities having quite possibly the best Covid self test biotech in the world alongside manufacturing control following yesterday’s RNS.

On news of the first contract of note and/ or EU home use and we rerate

Whilst sales orders are of course important we need to know does the Mologic standalone test identify Delta variant 100% and if it does to what Ct value ?

Mologic have been very quiet on this important/ relevant point.

Hopefully Colin will disclose next week but without Delta being identified to a very high level of accuracy then we don’t have a complete commercial test of our own to sell, it’s pointless without being able to identify Delta.

Doesnt detract from Omega being a very good engineering business manufacturing LFT’s for others but we need clarity on this important point.

If we get back to 2019 revenue per unit are we looking at an average of £1.5M p/a ?
So £100M based on current estate with plans to open a further 20 plus units

Ex 20no odd plus loss making sites closed
annual rent savings from existing sites of £7M plus per annum all as part of recent restructuring
Net bank debt of £5M

All restrictions lifted

£50M m/cap seems very cheap

Gkb,

Agree with your theme below.

From Big Al last week

‘it takes 5 weeks to modify affimers to identify new variants’

We now know 100% accurate as well

It’s game over for lock downs

Mute points but worth considering.

- As Avacta’s equity stake is below 25% then Affycell’s annual accounts do not have be grouped with Avacta’s, this will suit Avacta.

- It’s quite normal to structure this way and then have warrants to bring your equity back up, I don’t think Avacta would even have to disclose the warrants.

The Avacta presentation yesterday was an insight into the LFT a market place today.

It appears that there are cheaper overseas manufacturers of the LFT itself, as such it’s fair to say Omega will be working supplying the U.K. Government direct once they are informed which biotech to use, in the mean time they are making cassettes for them which we know about .

BBI couldn’t meet Avacta’s required costing, Abingdon probably had no choice as they didn’t have a Government contract like Omega and have cut their margin.

Regarding the biotech, unless it picks up the Delta variant it will struggle to be excepted in the worldwide market, hence Avacta taking a pounding until it confirms a clinical trial that it’s test does.

So the issue for Omega is does the Mologic V1 test pick up Delta and to what accuracy / Ct range ?

GAD are manufacturing the Avacta test and we know GAD are part owned by Mologic who are partners with Avacta on the so called V2 biotech.

So unless Mologic produce their own standalone updated biotech that is close to 100% accurate identifying Delta then their V1 test is finished commercially.

Worth remembering the Mologic V1 reagent / buffer had a shelf life of Sept 2021

Putting all this to one side it’s not all bad news for Omega
They will eventually get the nod what biotech to use and they can commence the £374M contract, we should find out next month how much we have been making via manufacturing cassettes for the Government whilst we wait, suggest this will be the interesting number, if it’s the same price as the antibody LFT then it’s 80p gross profit per unit, it’s just how many a month?

In the meantime we may get news in the wider market on who has been successful identifying Delta variant

Not posted on the Board for a while but remain a LTH, I didn’t wish to post anything negative on a stock I held but had frustrations from Big Al’s comments on timescales , lack of delivering from a commercial side and even going back to January on the saliva test not working and BAM’s as well.

However I think Al has learnt from his errors and I think today he tried to let us know that and it doesn’t feel like the ‘Al Show ‘ anymore ,it’s evident he is spreading the load and utilising the skills of his partners and leaving his team to focus on what they do best which is be innovative biotech scientists.

In a perverse way I actually feel more confident after today than in any time since April 20 when I first invested, I don’t need to list all the positives nor the hurdles either, LTH’s know we are moving in the right direction and we can expect to see a number of RNS’s covering below.

Confirmation to identify the Delta variant, home use for Europe, possibly EU sovereign state’s orders, clearance for sales in Asia all on top of commercial sales in U.K./EU, plus Porton Down which was at one time the Elephant in the room and whilst nice to secure we can move on in the meantime elsewhere and hopefully firm a U.K. Government contract eventually by September which would be a welcomed event.

Avacta are moving forward with a CEO who has had to learn the hard way at times but that experience will serve him well and all the stakeholders over the coming years.

Upwards and Onwards for Avacta.

Worrying

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9681613/Study-shows-29-people-died-catching-new-strain-vaccinations.html

Asymptomatic

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9127345/UK-coronavirus-Department-Health-rebranding-professional-use-kit-self-test.html

Good debate ND

Yes I believe self testing asymptomatic has always been the way forward, been in Avacta since April 2020, ODX a wee bit later, not convinced in PCR for mass testing

Avacta have come out with this data of 100% accuracy up to Ct27, it’s going to be interesting to see if it stands up to scrutiny, if it does their tech has the market and we can guess ODX can start the £374M contract.

Let’s hope so.