Member Info for Okehurst1

Thanks Reg
Interesting … wonder what biotech they have used ?
Would it have had to pass Porton Down ?

Guess a rhetorical question really?

Regulator, bit of advice off yourself as this is your expertise

Could this expenditure / payment to GAD be via
CE accreditation so via a framework contract ? Just an idea

Thanks Simon
Re -,GAD , what biotech would they be using ?
Wondering if the payment is in relation to antigen LFT’s

TW , have you picked up on any GAD payments / source ?

Simon
Thanks for sharing your communication with Walbrook

What’s your personal view on our cassette / pouching ?

Do you think we are manufacturing for Surescreen ? Or for anyone else - based on your messages from Paul?

Danl, fully agree
Been a good debate thanks for sharing your thoughts.

They must be generating £cash

‘Staffing levels have increased significantly and although cash balances are “healthy”, there must be concerns about the future cash flows?

The 2021 accounts were signed off in July 2021 on a going concern basis, which involves a review of the Company’s cash flow forecasts for at least the next 12 months, including a consideration of a number of downside sensitivities. The Board’s conclusion was that the accounts could be signed off on the going concern basis and the auditors, EY concurred.
The Board has no current plans to raise further funds from investors as the anticipated sales demand is expected to generate sufficient cash to enable the Company to manage its cash flow, without the need for further external funding.
Many of the headcount increases are temporary staff, allowing the Company to flex staffing levels in line with production activity. There are however a number of permanent employees who have been hired in anticipation of growing demand.

They appear confident, something going on behind the scenes

Question 3
When will Omega get approval from Porton Down?

Once we gain self-test CE mark approval then there may be an opportunity to gain approval from Porton Down for the VISTECT® test.
Question 4
Why was there a delay in getting UK self-test approval?
The testing requirements changed in July and, as a consequence, we had to commission further studies carried out by Ulster University on our behalf. Whilst we could have better explained the reasons

behind this delay to shareholders, all information has now been submitted and we are expecting approval in due course. Further details were set out in our RNS dated 6 September 2021.

This is the nearest we have seen officially that they are ‘currently ‘manufacturing for DHSC, that would assume DHSC are now paying them direct not Surescreen - via a sub contract

Suggest this could be the case ‘ currently ‘

I thought that Simon, then we get this officially after the close.

On the face of it we must be manufacturing for DHSC - Omega are saying that this evening -
We can only assume it must be for another supplier not Surescreen?

Question 1
What are you currently manufacturing and for whom?

The Alva site manufactures CD4 tests, cassette and pouching activities for DHSC and also VISITECT® antigen tests and AbC-19TM antibody tests as part of the UK-RTC.
There are three strands to our sales opportunities and any significant sales orders would be notified to investors:
- UK Government demand
- UK and EU demand for Omega’s own-brand VISTECT® antigen test, where we are
currently awaiting CE Mark approval for self-test.
- the US market, where there is significant demand for professional use tests. Mologic have
applied to the FDA for professional test approval and are in active discussion regarding their submission.

To release the short Q & A this evening with
‘ currently ‘ ….pouching for DHSC ?
Is that still ongoing ?

Thought that TW - lazy reporting
Would be helpful if Omega officially cleared the Surescreen relationship up though, once and for all?

Thanks for sharing Mars
Noticed the date is 4th October, I wonder if this is lazy reporting linking Omega? Would be worth an RNS if it was ?

Not too sure what to think, no idea why Omega can’t just explain the SS relationship one way or another?

Thanks Danl - missed that

So pro rata £18M SaaS in interims - got it

It would be know to see the margin in ingenuity ex THG web sites, either way say on 20 X ARR we get to your
£800M valuation ex £cash £200M on top
You were on the money with £800M

Danl/ Sa276

I read some where that Ingenuity enjoy 2% in £value of the goods delivered as their fee.

What are your views on the 2% ?

Is that correct ?

Nb forgot to add

Agree the only other variable is one off carriage charges rather than structural issues- this will sort itself out

Danl

If we look at Boo Hoo as one example - not a full like for like but some beauty products cross over but as you say THG are vertical

Boo

£975M revenue 6 months
Say £2.1B full year to allow growth X 1.5
We are close to their £2.7B m/cap today

Revolution Beauty - £78M interims , let’s go with £170m full year m/cap £420M 2.5 X Rev

Back to THG

As you say £2.1B annual revenue - maybe £2.5B for THG coming come end of year - could see 1.5 or 2X due to vertical supply model

We are around £3.75B to £4.2B

Ingenuity / cash on top, who knows but 30 x ARR would be £1B based on interim numbers

Your £5B fair value looks on the money today when measured against the market, only down side I can see is if we move to 1.5X Rev but our vertical supply chain side should give us a premium.

So split the business into 2 entities / quotes
web sites / ingenuity
Let the market value the latter - it’s makes it’s own call at the time

Suggest this is where we are today as investment case?

Thanks Danl, good to get opinions / views, that was helpful

Hi Danl
First off good luck with your investment and thanks for sharing your views - genuinely appreciated as I am looking to potentially invest THG - and debate same.

If we strip out £1B as a ball park for Ingenuity as mentioned yesterday, maybe £800M but let’s add back the £cash of £200K plus and taking the view this will be it’s own entity next 6 months ?

What does that leave the rump valued at ?

Struggling to get an angle of revenue / EBITA per division ?

Interested to see your views?

Thanks

Is this being set up for 24hr on line purchases?
It appears that way ?

The Government would have a portal / URL where any tests with HUA can be purchased direct off the manufacturer/ distributors?

Speculating but has merits

Good point G/man

If the 250 staff are not manufacturing cassettes for SS what are they producing ? And how are they funding?

Guess we will soon find out what ‘ healthy ‘ cash balance equates to ?