Member Info for Okehurst1

Think so Blu

I don’t think there is much more Colin can actually do, everything is place, the machinery / establishment/ engineering skill base ,we are pretty much relying on the Mologic biotech passing what it needs to pass.

This week feels pivotal as we are 6 weeks into the resubmission of the EU HUA application - the 6 week period appears to be the time frame to hear back from EU

I’ve felt for a while it’s an intra day RNS for EU HUA.

Nothing has actually changed, you either believe the data from independent trials that Mologic biotech is one of the best or your don't, ditto are Omega decent diagnostics engineers?

If you think yes to above then it’s lottery ticket at the moment.

We hear from EU HUA and the share price rockets
or rerate via USA CE, either could be an intra day RNS.

Not without risk but the reward on the news is potentially big percentage increase wise.

FDA have to get it right evaluating new Antigen Tests, they are certainly removing authorisation for many providers.

‘Currently, there is a “temporary shortage” of over-the-counter COVID-19 testing supplies, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said last month. America is reeling from massive supply-chain issues and it’s affecting many necessary items.’

The United States Government continues to monitor the testing supply chain and remains in contact with diagnostic test manufacturers,” said the CDC’s laboratory advisory. “These companies report strong availability of laboratory instruments, laboratory test kits and other supplies, and an increasing supply of POC and OTC tests.”

‘Amid the shortage of tests, the Biden administration will spend $1 billion to purchase millions of home COVID-19 tests, said White House COVID-19 response coordinator Jeffrey Zients at a briefing on Wednesday’

‘The spending follows another $2 billion investment in COVID-19 home tests from September.‘

https://wjla.com/news/nation-world/nearly-a-half-million-covid-19-home-tests-recalled-for-producing-false-positives

On the subject of M/cap

Boo & ASOS pretty much the same market value today but ASOS almost twice the revenue
Not fully like for like business model but interesting all the same

Danl
Whilst not a perfect science - X Rev to m/cap

ASOS is heading to 26 weeks to £m/cap - not quite there yet

That does appear extremely cheap and maybe one for your list below ?

Danl, thanks again for your time to put down your thoughts.

For what it’s worth, I think THG should leave the websites as they are in the U.K. - the market will value the potential £2.1B to £2.4B on X Rev as it decides, but let’s assume 2X
say £4.5B plus the £200M
Who knows we may enjoy 2.5X Rev average

Then spin off Ingenuity onto Nasdaq, it raises $ same time

It makes sense to de risk the core business against the untested / £40M ARR platform, investors may not wish in both entities, this gives everyone the opportunity to sell / hold Ingenuity shares even ditto the web sites if you only want exposure to high risk / potential high growth tech platform.

We then have 2 transparent / independent businesses that Investors can value, it’s very difficult at the moment due to the uncertainties of Ingenuity and how much of the £cash the websites generate will they be allowed to retain / invest when Ingenuity requires serious investment to drive global ARR

Harvey, try not worry about your investment in Omega
these links may help you.

There are additional independent clinical trials showing the Mologic LFT the easiest to use, in fact it’s been the best in class on a number of occasions now.

Don’t think we need to worry about the clinical side, Governments have eventually realised as long as the LFT can identify infectious people up to Ct25 and viral load range 1.00+e to 7.00+e that’s all they need, in many cases infected people may only be actually infectious for 24hrs, hence the shift to LFT’s and PCR to double check.

The current Chinese tests are very poor clinically and hopefully at last this week we will see the DHSC instruct Omega with a PO and MHRA clear for HUA generally, everything is lined up.

Stay positive, not long now.

https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/6-132

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/351936733_Accuracy_of_the_Mologic_COVID-19_rapid_antigen_test_a_prospective_multi-centre_analytical_and_clinical_evaluation_version_1_peer_review_awaiting_peer_review

file:///var/mobile/Library/SMS/Attachments/44/04/1900633D-8C35-4B8B-8314-646ECACDD0E6/Mologic_Ag-Public-Report_v1-20210423.pdf

Just on the subject of NCYT it gives us some idea of the value of Omega once the 100M LFT capacity generates revenue

Ex DHSC , NCYT on a straight line basis will do £100M Rev this year with £80M cash in hand

If we assume the market has discounted the DHSC monies owed and future sales then it has a m/cap of £100M ( ish )ex £cash

As a £number we could say -ex biotech supplier- Omega enjoy £3.75 to £4 per LFT , potentially £400M of annual revenue

Would Omega enjoy the same 1X annual revenue rating?

Quite possibly serious money to made here, but we need the orders /understand the gross revenue stream etc.

Thanks Danl
V helpful

Correction - own Rev plex

Hi Danl
Thanks for sharing your views / posts, v helpful, appreciated - side note I picked up THG £4.20 after our Debate

Small point re Olaplex, do Rev own the brand ?

Ditto are they a vertical supplier in terms of owning a fair percentage of their product ?

Seriously thinking of buying in here

Gary
Fair doos, I agree.

TW, you make your call, we all do, understand your concerns though.

The past is the past, means nothing now.

Data points stacking up, this one is coiled for upward rerate on news - it’s coming

You wouldn’t ship to EU by choice from Liverpool - generally and especially with today’s carriage charges put aside Bootle Terminal is one cheapest ports to use in U.K.

USA it is … really good spotting GTC, impressed with what you have shared.

GTC …. Your on fire

Total class

3M plus Omega LFT antigen tests coming into Alva ?
Just can’t see that, these are LFT’s manufactured and being shipped somewhere?

Good to have different points views and we will soon find out.

From an investment point of view I think it’s weighted to export to USA, even Mologic mentioned below.

As posted by Benton

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/rapid-covid-19-tests-increasingly-scarce-pricey-demand-employers-jumps-2021-10-05/

TW
May have been packaged 2 days ago - been waiting for collection, shortage of HGV drivers ?
Makes sense ?

No idea why we can’t be told by Omega mind ?

Simon,
Good point off BB

Know Paul responds to you ? Worth a go ?

Merseyside haulier
Main export destination to USA in U.K.

Yeah well done GTC
Thanks for sharing